变形监测网稳定性分析方法存在的问题及探讨

在变形监测中,变形监测控制网的稳定性分析是监测工作的首要任务,每种监测网稳定性分析方法所采用的平差方法都有自己的特点。本文从现代平差方法的特点入手,介绍了传统的监测网稳定性分析方法的基本理论及其存在的问题,说明了基于模糊聚类分析的拟稳平差在解决该问题的优越性,并指出了这种方法存在的局限性。     

基于均值变点分析的三峡库区河网提取研究

均值变点是最常见最直观的一种类型,它以平均值为分析对象,通过计算整个样本数据的方差(S)与分段样本的统计量(Si)之差来确定变点,变点的存在会使S和Si的差距增大。本文以SRTM DEM数据作为基本的地形数据,借助Arc Hydro Tools扩展模块,研究基于地表径流漫流模型的数字河网提取方法,采用均值变点分析法确定提取河网的阈值,并对结果进行分析。经对比发现,提取的主干河网与1∶250 000地形图主干上吻合较好,次流上更具真实性,提取结果可以用于各种地形分析。     

干旱区土壤水分遥感反演与同化模拟系统研究

利用遥感反演和同化模拟方法估算大范围陆表土壤水分,建立了适用于干旱区的土壤水分反演模型。在.NET平台下运用C#、IDL与ArcEngine控件,对反演模型与同化模拟模型进行了软件实现,并集成为土壤水分遥感反演与同化模拟系统,为环保部门获取大范围土壤水分信息提供了支撑软件工具。     

基于高程统计方法的机载LiDAR点云数据滤波

提出了一种基于高程统计的LiDAR数据滤波方法,该方法以高程分布统计量为依据,通过迭代的方法逐个滤除,是一种基于原始点云的非监督滤波算法。采用北京凤凰岭地区某块机载LiDAR数据进行实验,并做出了实验改进。实验表明,该方法能够准确有效地滤除地物点,既能较好地保持数据信息量与精度,又不依赖于其他数据源,是一种简单有效的滤波算法。     

强度尺度方法在模式定量降水预报检验中的应用

介绍了Casati于2004年提出的强度尺度检验技术,并将该方法应用到上海区域中尺度模式的预报检验中。结果表明,强度尺度检验技术可以提供一种从不同降水率闽值和空间尺度对模式定量降水预报进行评估的方案。该方法首先对预报场和观测场进行降水率闽值获得二进制误差场,并通过二维离散Haar小波对二进制误差场进行各个空间尺度的分解,从而评估模式在各个降水率闯值和空间尺度上的均方差和预报技巧。通过计算各空间尺度二进制误差场的均方差百分比和能量平方偏差,可分析不同的降水特征尺度误差对总体误差的贡献情况以及预报降水与观测的偏差情况。     

A Regional Ensemble Forecast System for Stratiform Precipitation Events in Northern China. Part I: A Case Study

A single-model,short-range,ensemble forecasting system (Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Regional Ensemble Forecast System,IAP REFS) with 15-km grid spacing,configured with multiple initial conditions,multiple lateral boundary conditions,and multiple physics parameterizations with 11 ensemble members,was developed using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model Advanced Research modeling system for prediction of stratiform precipitation events in northern China.This is the first part of a broader research project to develop a novel cloud-seeding operational system in a probabilistic framework.The ensemble perturbations were extracted from selected members of the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecasting System (NCEP GEFS) forecasts,and an inflation factor of two was applied to compensate for the lack of spread in the GEFS forecasts over the research region.Experiments on an actual stratiform precipitation case that occurred on 5-7 June 2009 in northern China were conducted to validate the ensemble system.The IAP REFS system had reasonably good performance in predicting the observed stratiform precipitation system.The perturbation inflation enlarged the ensemble spread and alleviated the underdispersion caused by parent forecasts.Centering the extracted perturbations on higher-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System forecasts resulted in less ensemble mean root-mean-square error and better accuracy in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF).However,the perturbation inflation and recentering had less effect on near-surface-level variables compared to the mid-level variables,and its influence on PQPF resolution was limited as well.     

A Comparison of Breeding and Ensemble Transform Vectors for Global Ensemble Generation

To compare the initial perturbation techniques using breeding vectors and ensemble transform vectors,three ensemble prediction systems using both initial perturbation methods but with different ensembl...     

Development and Application of an Atmospheric-Hydrologic-Hydraulic Flood Forecasting Model Driven by TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model,driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dat...     

Doppler Radar Data Assimilation with a Local SVD-En3DVar Method

An observation localization scheme is introduced into an ensemble-based three-dimensional variational (3DVar) assimilation method based on the singular value decomposition technique (SVD-En3DVar) to improve assimilation skill. A point-by-point analysis technique is adopted in which the weight of each observation decreases with increasing distance between the analysis point and the observation point. A set of numerical experiments, in which simulated Doppler radar data are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, is designed to test the scheme. The results are compared with those obtained using the original global and local patch schemes in SVD-En3DVar, neither of which includes this type of observation localization. The observation localization scheme not only eliminates spurious analysis increments in areas of missing data, but also avoids the discontinuous analysis fields that arise from the local patch scheme. The new scheme provides better analysis fields and a more reasonable short-range rainfall forecast than the original schemes. Additional forecast experiments that assimilate real data from 10 radars indicate that the short-term precipitation forecast skill can be improved by assimilating radar data and the observation localization scheme provides a better forecast than the other two schemes.     

集合卡尔曼滤波同化多普勒雷达资料的观测系统模拟试验

本文将集合卡尔曼滤波同化技术应用到对流尺度系统中,实施了基于WRF模式的同化单部多普勒雷达径向风和反射率因子的观测系统模拟试验,验证了其在对流尺度中应用的可行性和有效性,并对同化系统的特性进行了探讨。试验表明:WRF-EnKF雷达资料同化系统能较准确分析模式风暴的流场、热力场、微物理量场的细致特征;几乎所有变量的预报和分析误差经过同化循环后都能显著下降,同化分析基本上能使预报场在各层上都有所改进,对预报场误差较大层次的更正更为显著;约8个同化循环后,EnKF能在雷达反射率、径向风观测与背景场间建立较可靠的相关关系,使模式各变量场能被准确分析更新,背景场误差协方差在水平方向和垂直方向都有着复杂的结构,是高度非均匀、各项异性和流依赖的;集合平均分析场做的确定性预报在短时间内能较好保持真值场风暴的细节结构,但预报误差增长较快。