Mean values of particular functions in the elliptic motion

The mean values % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiGc9yrFr0xXdbba91rFfpec8Eeeu0x% Xdbba9frFj0-OqFfea0dXdd9vqaq-JfrVkFHe9pgea0dXdar-Jb9hs% 0dXdbPYxe9vr0-vr0-vqpWqaaeaabiGaciaacaqabeaadaqaaqGaaO% qaamaalaaabaGaaGymaaqaaiaaikdacqaHapaCaaWaa8qCaeaacaGG% OaacbaGaa8NKbiabgkHiTiaadYgacaGGPaGaa8hiaiGacogacaGGVb% Gaai4Caiaa-bcacaWGRbGaa8NKbiaa-bcacaWGKbGaamiBaaWcbaGa% aGimaaqaaiaaikdacqaHapaCa0Gaey4kIipakiaa-bcacaqGHbGaae% OBaiaabsgacaWFGaWaaSaaaeaacaaIXaaabaGaaGOmaiabec8aWbaa% daWdXbqaaiaacIcacaWFsgGaeyOeI0IaamiBaiaacMcacaWFGaGaci% 4CaiaacMgacaGGUbGaa8hiaiaadUgacaWFsgGaa8hiaiaadsgacaWG% SbaaleaacaaIWaaabaGaaGOmaiabec8aWbqdcqGHRiI8aaaa!6BC2!\[\frac{1}{{2\pi }}\int\limits_0^{2\pi } {(f - l) \cos kf dl} {\rm{and}} \frac{1}{{2\pi }}\int\limits_0^{2\pi } {(f - l) \sin kf dl}\] (where f and l are respectively the true anomaly and the mean anomaly in the elliptic motion and k is an integer) are given in closed form.     

Borehole temperatures, climate change and the pre-observational surface air temperature mean: allowance for hydraulic conditions

Joint analysis of surface air temperature series recorded at weather stations together with the inversion of the temperature-depth profiles logged in the near-by boreholes enables an estimate of the conditions existing prior to the beginning of the meteorological observation, the so-called pre-observational mean (POM) temperature.Such analysis is based on the presumption of pure diffusive conditions in the underground. However, in real cases a certain subsurface fluid movement cannot be excluded and the measured temperature logs may contain an advective component. The paper addresses the correction for the hydraulic conditions, which may have perturbed the climate signal penetrating from the surface into the underground. The method accounts for vertical conductive and vertical advective heat transport in a 1-D horizontally layered stratum and provides a simultaneous evaluation of the POM-temperature together with the estimate of the Darcy fluid velocity. The correction strategy is illustrated on a synthetic example and its use is demonstrated on temperature logs measured in four closely spaced boreholes drilled near Tachlovice (located about 15 km SW of Prague, Czech Republic). The results revealed that in a case of moderately advectively affected subsurface conditions (fluid velocities about 10⁻⁹ m/s), the difference between POM-values assessed for a pure conductive approach and for combined vertical conductive/advective approach may amount up to 0.3–0.5 K, the value comparable with the amount usually ascribed to the 20th century climate warming.     

Evaluation and fusion of SST data from MTSAT and TMI in East China Sea, Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in 2008

Two typical satellite sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, from the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI), were evaluated for the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea throughout 2008. Most monthly-mean availabilities of MTSAT are higher than those of TMI, whereas the seasonal variation of the latter is less than that of the former. The analysis on the one-year data shows that the annual mean availability of MTSAT (61%) is greater than that of TMI (56%). This is mainly because MTSAT is a geostationary satellite, which achieves longer observation than the sun-synchronous TMI. The daily availability of TMI (28%-75%) is more constant than that of MTSAT (9%-93%). The signal of infrared sensors on MTSAT is easily disturbed on cloudy days. In contrast, the TMI microwave sensor can obtain information through clouds. Based on in-situ SSTs, the SST accuracy of TMI is superior to that of MTSAT. In 2008, the root mean square (RMS) error of TMI and MTSAT were 0.77 K and 0.84 K, respectively. The annual mean biases were 0.14 K (TMI) and -0.31 K (MTSAT). To attain a high availability of SSTs, we propose a fusion method to merge both SSTs. The annual mean availability of fusion SSTs increases 17% compared to MTSAT. In addition, the availabilities of the fusion SSTs become more constant. The annual mean RMS and bias of fusion SSTs (0.78 K and -0.06 K, respectively) are better than those of MTSAT (0.84 K and -0.31 K).     

顾及地形的滇中引水工程最低成本线路研究

以滇中引水工程线路规划为例,以资源三号测绘卫星ZY-3 DSM为数据源,以均值变点分析法为理论依据,借助Python语言编程实现研究区地势起伏度最佳统计单元的确定,并运用GIS技术生成地势起伏度和坡度图。再运用专家打分评价方法,确定地势起伏度和坡度的权重,采用基于栅格的成本加权分析法,构建滇中引水工程地形成本栅格。在此基础上,将引水工程线路规划问题转化为GIS最低成本路径求解问题,以栅格数据Dijkstra算法为基础,求解出滇中引水工程最低成本线路。从地形的角度,研究了复杂地形状况下滇中引水工程智能线路规划的方法,可为引水工程提供一定的参考和借鉴。     

A symplectic mapping model for the 3/4 exterior

We present a symplectic mapping model to study the evolution of a small body at the 3/4 exterior resonance with Neptune, for planar and for three dimensional motion. The mapping is based on the averaged Hamiltonian close to this resonance and is constructed in such a way that the topology of its phase space is similar to that of the Poincaré map of the elliptic restricted three-body problem. Using this model we study the evolution of a small object near the 3/4 resonance. Both chaotic and regular motions are found, and it is shown that the initial phase of the object plays an important role on the appearance of chaos. In the planar case, objects that are phase-protected from close encounters with Neptune have regular orbits even at eccentricities up to 0.44. On the other hand objects that are not phase protected show chaotic behaviour even at low eccentricities. The introduction of the inclination to our model affects the stable areas around the 3/4 mean motion resonance, which now become thinner and thinner and finally at is=10° the whole resonant region becomes chaotic. This may justify the absence of a large population of objects at this resonance.     

Asteroid Mean Elements: Higher Order and Iterative Theories

Mean orbital elements are obtained from osculating ones by removing the short periodic perturbations. Large catalogues of asteroid mean elements need to be computed, as a first step in the computation of proper elements, used to study asteroid families. The algorithms for this purpose available so far are only accurate to first order in the masses of the perturbing planet; the mean elements have satisfactory accuracy for most of the asteroid belt, but degraded accuracy in the neighbourhoods of the main mean motion resonances, especially the 2:1. We investigate a number of algorithms capable of improving this approximation; they belong to the two classes of Breiter-type methods and iterative methods. The former are obtained by applying some higher order numerical integration scheme, such as Runge–Kutta, to the differential equation whose solution is a transformation removing the fast angular variables from the equations; they can be used to compute a full second order theory, however, only if the full second order determining function is explicitly computed, and this is computationally too cumbersome for a complicated problem such as the N-body. The latter are fixed point iterative schemes, with the first order theory as an iteration step, used to compute the inverse map from mean to osculating elements; formally the method is first order, but because they implement a fixed frequency perturbation theory, they are more accurate than conventional single iteration methods; a similar method is already in use in our computation of proper from mean elements. Many of these methods are tested on a sample of asteroid orbits taken from the Themis family, up to the edge of the 2:1 resonance, and the dispersion of the values of the computed mean semimajor axis over 100 000 years is used as quality control. The results of these tests indicate that the iterative methods are superior, in this specific application, to the Breiter methods, in accuracy and reliability. This is understood as the result of the cancellations occurring between second order perturbation terms: the incomplete second order theory, resulting from the use of a Breiter method with the first order determining function only, can be less accurate than complete, fixed frequency theories of the first order. We have therefore computed new catalogues of asteroid mean and proper elements, incorporating an iterative algorithm in both steps (osculating to mean and mean to proper elements). This new data set, significantly more reliable even in the previously degraded regions of Themis and Cybele, is in the public domain. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于速度-深度线性模型的时深转换方法及其在南海海盆深水区的应用*

介绍了沉积层速度-深度线性模型的原理及其基本特点,利用沿南海海盆深水区一条多道地震剖面解释的速度谱资料,将沉积层速度-深度线性模型应用于该剖面解释数据的时深转换中,建立了与之相关的一整套工作流程,整个流程实现了可视化,并考虑了沉积地层速度的横向变化,为地震剖面的地质解释提供了直观且更为可靠的素材。最后,分别从理论和实践角度分析探讨了该时深转换模型的应用前景和局限性,借此为后续研究工作提供参考。     

重力数据误差对大地水准面模型建立的影响

基于Stokes理论建立的大地水准面模型,其精度受重力数据误差,即重力数据分辨率、精度以及积分范围的影响。针对这一问题,通过重力场谱特征分析,给出不同地形区域重力数据分辨率以及积分半径造成的大地水准面高频截断误差的量级大小,计算平均重力异常误差对大地水准面建模精度的影响。研究成果对不同地形区域cm级大地水准面模型的建立具有理论与指导意义。     

中国气象局S2S数据归档中心设计及关键技术

中国气象局S2S（Sub-seasonal to Seasonal）数据归档中心建设是中国气象局承担世界气象组织（WMO）的世界天气研究计划（WWRP）和世界气候研究计划（WCRP）任务,由国家气象信息中心负责设计和实现。该文介绍了S2S数据归档中心建设中涉及的数据交换、数据检查及处理、数据归档存储及数据服务门户全流程系统设计和实现。针对各业务中心生产的S2S数据配置差异较大造成数据交换、同步较难这一问题,采用基于FTP（file transfer protocol）的数据推送和基于ECMWF（European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts）WebAPI主动数据下载相结合的方式,说明数据交换、同步方法和策略。由于S2S数据量巨大难以高效管理服务,已设计统一的数据组织形式和存储规则,实现根据数据检索条件解析获取数据存储位置,提供便捷的数据检索下载服务。自2015年11月15日中国气象局S2S数据门户系统对外开放,目前数据门户系统已有超过18个国家的300个用户注册并下载数据。     

The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast experiments using the FGOALS-g model

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil (FGOALS-g) was used to study the spring prediction barrier (SPB) in an ensemble system. This coupled model was developed and maintained at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG). There are two steps in our hindcast experiments. The first is to integrate the coupled model continuously with sea surface temperature (SST) nudging, from 1971 to 2006. The second is to carry out a series of one-year hindcasts without SST nudging, by adopting initial values from the first step on January 1 st , April 1st , July 1st , and October 1st , from 1982 to 2005. We generate 10 ensemble members for a particular start date (1st ) by choosing different atmospheric and land conditions around the hindcast start date (1st through 10th ). To estimate the predicted SST, two methods are used: (1) Anomaly Correlation Coefficient and its rate of decrease; and (2) Talagrand distribution and its standard deviation. Results show that FGOALS-g offers a reliable ensemble system with realistic initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and high anomaly correlation (>0.5) within 6 month lead time. Further, the ensemble approach is effective, in that the anomaly correlation of ensemble mean is much higher than that of most individual ensemble members. The SPB exists in the FGOALS-g ensemble system, as shown by anomaly correlation and equal likelihood. Nevertheless, the role of the ensemble mean in reducing the SPB of ENSO prediction is significant. The rate of decrease of the ensemble mean is smaller than the largest deviations by 0.04-0.14. At the same time, the ensemble system "equal likelihood" declines during spring. An ensemble mean helps give a correct prediction direction, departing from largely-deviated ensemble members.