雷达资料同化对2015年台风彩虹数值模拟改进

基于WRF中尺度模式,采用集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化中国岸基多普勒天气雷达径向速度资料,对2015年登陆台风彩虹（1522）进行数值试验。从台风强度、路径、结构等方面验证了同化效果,并对不同区域雷达观测资料的同化敏感性进行讨论。试验结果表明:在同化窗内同化分析场台风位置误差相比未同化平均减小15 km,最多时刻减小38 km,同化资料时次越多,确定性预报路径误差越小。同化雷达资料后较好地反映出台风彩虹（1522）近海加强过程,台风中心最低气压同化分析和预报误差相比未同化最大减小超过25 hPa,台风眼的尺度、眼墙处对流非对称结构相比未同化与观测更加接近。试验还表明:台风内核100 km范围内的雷达观测对同化效果影响最大,仅同化这部分资料（约占总量的20%）各方面效果与同化全部资料相近,而仅同化100 km以外资料效果明显不及同化所有资料。仅同化台风内核雷达观测资料可以在不影响同化效果的前提下,使集合同化计算机时减小为原来的1/3,该策略可为台风实际业务预报提供一定参考。     

基于用户点击数据的细粒度图像识别方法概述

近年来,细粒度图像识别逐渐成为计算机视觉领域的研究热点.由于不同类别图像间的视觉差异小、语义鸿沟问题严重,传统的基于视觉特征的细粒度图像识别性能往往不尽人意.针对这些挑战,目前许多学者都在研究基于用户点击数据的图像识别.本文围绕点击数据在图像识别中数据预处理、特征提取和模型构建3大模块中的应用,总结了已有的基于点击数据的识别算法及最新的研究进展.     

Empowering learning through design: a comparative analysis of ICM course development for web-based and classroom delivery

This article reviews the development of two courses focussed on meeting Integrated Coastal Management capacity building needs: an undergraduate degree course, and a web-based distance learning course. Influential factors in the development of each course are identified and compared. Important considerations are found to be methods of quality assurance, course content, the temporal and spatial context of teaching and learning, level of learner empowerment, and the role of the teacher. It is concluded that in order to understand the role of such courses in capacity building, coastal educators need to share experiences and encourage reflection on the effectiveness of capacity building efforts.     

The characteristics of signal versus noise sst variability in the north pacific and the tropical pacific ocean

Total sea surface temperature (SST) in a coupled GCM is diagnosed by separating the variability into signal variance and noise variance. The signal and the noise is calculated from multi-decadal simulations from the COLA anomaly coupled GCM and the interactive ensemble model by assuming both simulations have a similar signal variance. The interactive ensemble model is a new coupling strategy that is designed to increase signal to noise ratio by using an ensemble of atmospheric realizations coupled to a single ocean model. The procedure for separating the signal and the noise variability presented here does not rely on any ad hoc temporal or spatial filter. Based on these simulations, we find that the signal versus the noise of SST variability in the North Pacific is significantly different from that in the equatorial Pacific. The noise SST variability explains the majority of the total variability in the North Pacific, whereas the signal dominates in the deep tropics. It is also found that the spatial characteristics of the signal and the noise are also distinct in the North Pacific and equatorial Pacific.     

一种多层神经网络的学习算法

提出一种基于序贯预测误差方法（ＳＰＥ）的多层神经网络（ＭＮＮ）的学习算法。经模拟计算，它比传统的基于最陡下降方法的误差反传（ＳＤＢＥＰ）算法具有更好的收敛性能。并对这两种算法进行了模拟计算的比较．     

多障碍环境中基于增强式学习的势场优化和机器人路径规划

该文把增强式学习方法应用于多障碍环境中机器人路径规划 ,并将增强式学习和路径规划相结合 ,通过工作空间势场的自适应优化学习 ,实现机器人的全局路径规划 ,即得到从任何初始位置开始的最优路径。与传统的人工势场方法相比 ,该方法避免了势场中局部极小点所引起的陷阱区域 ,并且所得到的路径具有最优特性。计算机仿真实验结果表明 ,这种学习方法能有效的解决多障碍环境中的机器人路径规划问题     

时空协同的精准农业遥感研究

高分辨率遥感对地观测为我们从空间与时间2个维度客观反演地表格局—过程提供了有效的技术支撑。本文遵循时空协同的研究思路,基于高分辨率遥感影像,开展了农业遥感领域2个典型的问题研究：① 提出了一种基于影像视觉特征的耕地分区分层提取方法,该方法在利用DEM数据进行分区的基础上,根据不同区域内耕地所呈现的几何特征和纹理特征差异,分别设计了不同的耕地提取模型;② 构建了一种地块尺度的作物生长参数反演方法,方法以地块为基本单元,在空间、时间及属性组合约束下进行作物理化参数反演。本研究以贵州省安顺市西秀区和广西扶绥县耕地提取进行了耕地地块提取示范,以扶绥县进行了基于耕地地块和中空间分辨率时间序列遥感数据的甘蔗叶面积指数反演。其中,对于安顺市西秀区的耕地地块提取结果而言,形态精度（IoU）大于0.7的地块超过60%,规则耕地、梯田以及林草地等的类型精度均超过了80%;对于扶绥县甘蔗叶面积指数反演的结果而言,其结果可以较为精确地反映出基地甘蔗与非基地甘蔗的差异,基地甘蔗在品质上要优于非基地甘蔗。西南山地区的耕地形态提取/类型判别和地块甘蔗叶面积指数应用验证均证明了方法的可行性。结果表明,协同使用多源高分辨率数据是实现精准农业遥感研究的有效途径。     

Data assimilation methods for estimating a heterogeneous conductivity field by assimilating transient solute transport data via ensemble Kalman filter

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is developed to identify a hydraulic conductivity distribution in a heterogeneous medium by assimilating solute concentration measurements of solute transport in the field with a steady‐state flow. A synthetic case with the mixed Neumann/Dirichlet boundary conditions is designed to investigate the capacity of the data assimilation methods to identify a conductivity distribution. The developed method is demonstrated in 2‐D transient solute transport with two different initial instant solute injection areas. The influences of the observation error and model error on the updated results are considered in this study. The study results indicate that the EnKF method will significantly improve the estimation of the hydraulic conductivity field by assimilating solute concentration measurements. The larger area of the initial distribution and the more observed data obtained, the better the calculation results. When the standard deviation of the observation error varies from 1% to 30% of the solute concentration measurements, the simulated results by the data assimilation method do not change much, which indicates that assimilation results are not very sensitive to the standard deviation of the observation error in this study. When the inflation factor is more than 1.0 to enlarge the model error by increasing the forecast error covariance matrix, the updated results of the hydraulic conductivity by the data assimilation method are not good at all. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The value of updating ensemble streamflow prediction in reservoir operations

This study proposes a new monthly ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting system that can update the ESP in the middle of a month to reflect the meteorological and hydrological variations during that month. The reservoir operating policies derived from a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model using ESP scenarios updated three times a month were applied to the Geum River basin to measure the value of updated ESP for 21 years with 100 initial storage combinations. The results clearly demonstrate that updating the ESP scenario improves the accuracy of the forecasts and consequently their operational benefit. This study also proves that the accuracy of the ESP scenario, particularly when high flows occur, has a considerable effect on the reservoir operations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.