Equilibrium Evaporation and the Convective Boundary Layer

A theory is developed for surface energy exchanges in well-mixed, partlyopen systems, embracing fully open and fully closed systems as limits.Conservation equations for entropy and water vapour are converted intoan exact rate equation for the potential saturation deficit D in a well-mixed, partly open region. The main contributions to changes in D arise from (1) the flux of D at the surface, dependent on a conductance g_q that is a weighted sum of the bulk aerodynamic and surface conductances; and (2) the exchange flux of D with the external environment by entrainment or advection, dependent on a conductance g_e that is identifiable with the entrainment velocity when the partly open region is a growing convective boundary layer (CBL). The system is fully open when g_e/g_q , and fully closed when g_e/g_q 0. The equations determine the steady state surface energy balance (SEB) in a partly open system, the associated steady-state deficit, and the settling time scale needed to reach the steady state. The general result for the steady-state SEB corresponds to the equations of conventional combination theory for the SEB of a vegetated surface, with the surface-layer deficit replaced by the external deficit and with g_q replaced by the series sum (g_q ^-1 + g_e ^-1)^-1. In the fully open limit D is entirely externally prescribed, while in the fully closed limit, D is internally determined and the SEB approaches thermodynamic equilibrium energy partition. In the case of the CBL, the conductances g_q and g_e are themselves functions of D through short-term feedbacks, induced by entrainment in the case of g_e and by both physiological and aerodynamic (thermal stability) processes in the case of g_q. The effects of these feedbacks are evaluated. It is found that a steady-state CBL is physically achievable only over surfaces with at least moderate moisture availability; that entrainment has a significant accelerating effect on equilibration; that the settling time scale is well approximated by h/(g_q + g_e), where h is the CBL depth; and that this scale is short enough to allow a steady state to evolve within a semi-diurnal time scale only when h is around 500 m or less.     

华北盛夏暴雨过程的能量特征分析

本文利用实况资料和T213输出资料,对发生在2005年8月16日～17日的华北暴雨过程进行了能量学特征分析,结果表明:暴雨前24h～36h,对流层上下层有暖湿空气同时发展,是暴雨发生的重要动力机制;强的干、湿静力能锋区稳定维持是这次大范围暴雨产生的能量基础,中低层湿静力能差值大于0,且数值很大,说明对流不稳定层结很强,暴雨发生在高能、高不稳定度的条件下;水汽的充足补给作用,是这次暴雨过程能量转换的基础。     

气旋爆发性发展过程的动力特征及能量学研究

本文对不同路径的爆发性气旋进行了动力特征及能量学研究。发现高空大值位涡空气的下伸是气旋爆发性发展的一个重要条件。初生气旋逐渐向强位涡区移近并形成上下位涡区相接的形势。使气旋迅速发展。高空急流与气旋发展有密切关系。发展中的气旋明显地向着急流左侧的辐散区移动。急流的突然加强及高空强风动量的不断下传，构成了下层的强风带及上下一致的急流结构。能量学研究指出在气旋发展前气旋内散度风动能向旋转风动能的转换突然增强。散度风动能在爆发气旋发展时有明显增长。     

南京地区7—8午后雷阵雨天气

本文主要分析南京地区７－８月发生午后雷阵雨天气,气候与其相关的革些参数的特征,以及大尺度的天气形势条件,用南京单站资料分析位热不稳定度和不稳定能量,从物理场判定南京是否处于产生雷阵雨的潜在不稳定区内,从相关资料中建立南京地区７￣８月午后雷阵雨天气的概率预报方程。e     

Three-year Variations of Water, Energy and CO$_2$ Fluxes of Cropland and Degraded Grassland Surfaces in a Semi-arid Area of Northeastern China

Based on 3 years （2003-05） of the eddy covariance （EC） observations on degraded grassland and cropland surfaces in a semi-arid area of Tongyu （44°25′N, 122°52′E, 184 m a.s.1.）, Northeast China, seasonal and annual variations of water, energy and CO2 fluxes have been investigated. The soil moisture in the thin soil layer （at 0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m） clearly indicates the pronounced annual wet-dry cycle; the annual cycle is divided into the wet （growing season） and dry seasons （non-growing season）. During the growing season （from May to September）, the sensible and latent heat fluxes showed a linear dependence on the global solar radiation. However, in the non-growing season, the latent heat flux was always less than 50 W m^-2, while the available energy was dissipated as sensible, rather than latent heat flux. During the growing season in 2003-05, the daily average sensible and latent heat fluxes were larger on the cropland surface than on the degraded grassland surface. The cropland ecosystem absorbed more CO2 than the degraded grassland ecosystem in the growing season in 2003-05. The total evapotranspiration on the cropland was more than the total precipitation, while the total evapotranspiration on the degraded grassland was almost the same as the total annual precipitation in the growing season. The soil moisture had a good correlation with the rainfall in the growing season. Precipitation in the growing season is an important factor on the water and carbon budget in the semi-arid area.     

欧盟"气候行动与可再生能源综合计划"建议草案: 核心要点与战略意义

概述了欧盟"气候行动与可再生能源综合计划"建议草案的出台背景、核心要点和主要内容,评价了各方反应及该建议草案的优点和缺点,分析了该建议草案与《京都议定书》第二承诺期气候谈判的联系及其对碳市场的影响。最后,针对中国参与清洁发展机制（CDM）活动,提出了个人的思考和建议。     

阿拉伯海热带气旋生成特征分析

利用印度气象局（India Meteorological Department,IMD）、国际气候管理最佳路径档案库（International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship,IBTrACS）提供的1982—2020年阿拉伯海热带气旋路径资料,美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）再分析资料,对近39 a阿拉伯海热带气旋源地和路径特征、活跃区域、频数及气旋累积能量（accumulated cyclone energy,ACE）指数的季节特征和年际变化特征进行分析,并结合环境因素,说明其物理成因。结果表明：阿拉伯海热带气旋多发于10°~25°N,65°~75°E海域,5—6月、9—12月发生频数较高且强度较强,1—4月、7—8月发生频数较低且气旋近中心最大风速均小于35 kn;频数的季节变化主要受控于垂直风切变要素;阿拉伯海热带气旋发生频数和ACE近年有上升趋势,年际变化主要受控于海面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）和850 hPa相对湿度要素。     

二维能量平衡模式中大气温度对二氧化碳增温效应的响应

利用一个考虑了辐射能传输的二维能量平衡气候模式,解析地分析了二氧化碳浓度改变后冰界纬度的变化,得到了冰界纬度随CO2浓度变化的关系以及全球平均温度的变化曲线.结果表明,当CO2浓度由工业革命前的280×10-6增加到700×10-6时,冰界仅后退(北半球向北)几个纬度;当CO2的浓度继续增加时,冰界纬度会加速向极地退缩,直至出现全球无极冰覆盖的现象.同样地,当CO2浓度由280×10-6增加到700×10-6时,全球地表平均温度虽然在增加,但增加的速率很小,并且增加的速率在减小,而当大于700×10-6之后,温度增加的速率会快速增大,温度将加速上升.对不同反照率进行敏感性试验,发现当反照率从0.1到0.32时,结果并没有显著地改变,即结果对反照率的变化并不敏感.这一计算结果表明,在目前的状态下,由CO2引起的增温作用似乎处于变化很小的准饱和状态,即目前气候不会因为CO2浓度的增加而迅速变暖.较为实际的情形可能是大气温度在缓慢增加到一定程度后才会迅速升高.这并不意味着可以忽视CO2的增温效应,因为根据计算结果,这个临界值大概在700×10-6左右,当CO2浓度增加到超过临界值之后,气温会剧烈上升,气候将会处在一个非常温暖的阶段.     

广西前汛期两次暴雨天气过程对比分析

利用micaps常规观测资料及客观分析资料,对2013年4月29日和5月10日出现的两次暴雨天气过程的影响系统及物理量进行对比分析,结果表明：（1）“4·29”过程主要是受高原槽和低空急流影响,“5·10”过程主要是受南支槽、低空切变和地面冷空气影响,无明显的低空急流相配合;（2）“4·29”的不稳定能量环境条件和水汽条件比“5·10”过程的要好,垂直系统更加深厚,但辐合上升条件相对较弱.     

原油族组分成气的化学动力学模型及其标定

利用等温密封热解实验技术及恒速升温热解实验与PY—GC分析技术的结合,本文分别建立并标定了原油中各族组分,即饱和烃、芳烃、非烃和沥青质成气的化学动力学模型。结果表明,原油中不同族组分成气的过程均可用平行一级反应描述,但不同组分在平均活化能及活化能分布上有明显的差异。各族组分在地史过程中成气的过程可由各自的化学动力学模型来描述。这将使原油成气过程的定量、动态描述成为可能。