Addressing regional disparities in allowance allocation in China’s national emissions trading scheme

China's national emissions trading scheme (ETS) is expected to be operational in 2017. Effectively addressing regional disparities at the provincial level in allowance allocation will greatly affect the acceptance of the allocation approach and thus deserves careful consideration. This article aims to explore possible approaches for addressing regional disparities, by introducing regional adjustment factors (RAF) in free allowance allocation. Based on the principle of ‘national unified rules?+?stricter adjustment by provincial authorities’, four single factorial and three multi-factorial methods are proposed to calculate the RAFs, through a normalization process. These methods are associated with the most acknowledged factors dealing with regional disparities, including per-capita GDP; per-capita CO₂ emissions; industrial sector contribution to GDP; economy-wide emissions control targets and CO₂ emissions per unit GDP, per unit power and heat output and per unit industrial added value. A comparative analysis is made for the seven methods, in regard to value distribution and level of matching regional political demand.

Key policy insights

• ‘Allowing stricter regional adjustment’ represents a dominant feature for China's national ETS, which aims to address regional disparities and government demands.

• How the adjustment plan is designed will have a major influence on the operation of the national ETS and regional business competitiveness. Provincial governments need to consider the trade-off between auction revenue and local business competitiveness.

• Applying the different methods leads to more scattered results for some regions, for whom the choice of adjustment approach will therefore have a greater impact.

• Based on the analysis, four adjustment methods that generate similar results – the per-capita GDP-based method, the intensity reduction target-based method, the 12th FYP target-based method and intensity-based grandfathering – are recommended for most provincial-level regions, with some exceptions.

     

Methane exchange between coal-bearing basins and the atmosphere: the Ruhr Basin and the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany

A precise knowledge of methane exchange processes is required to fully understand the recent rise of atmospheric methane concentration. Three of these processes take place at the lithosphere/atmosphere boundary: bacterial consumption of methane and emission of bacterial or thermogenic methane. This study was initiated to quantify these processes on a regional scale in the Ruhr Basin and the Lower Rhine Embayment. Since these areas are subject to bituminous coal and lignite mining, natural and anthropogenically-induced methane exchange processes could be studied. The methane emission and consumption rates and their carbon isotope signal were measured at the lithosphere/atmosphere boundary using flux chambers. On most of the soils studied, methane consumption by bacteria was identified. Thermogenic methane was released only at some of the natural faults examined. In active and abandoned bituminous coal mining areas methane emissions were restricted to small areas, where high emission rates were measured. The carbon isotope composition of methane at natural faults and in mining subsidence troughs was typical of thermogenic methane (−45 to −32 ‰ δ¹³C). Methane exchange balancing revealed that natural methane emissions from these two basins represent no source of atmospheric importance. However, methane release by upcast mining shafts dominates the methane exchange processes and is by about two orders of magnitude greater than methane consumption by bacterial oxidation in the soils.     

中国不同区域能源消费碳足迹的时空变化(英文)

Study on regional carbon emission is one of the hot topics under the background of global climate change and low-carbon economic development, and also help to establish different low-carbon strategies for different regions. On the basis of energy consumption and land use data of different regions in China from 1999 to 2008, this paper established carbon emission and carbon footprint models based on total energy consumption, and calculated the amount of carbon emissions and carbon footprint in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. The author also analyzed carbon emission density and per unit area carbon footprint for each region. Finally, advices for decreasing carbon footprint were put forward. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions from total energy consumption increased 129% from 1999 to 2008 in China, but its spatial distribution pattern among different regions just slightly changed, the sorting of carbon emission amount was: Eastern China > Northern China > Central and Southern China > Southwest China > Northwest China. (2) The sorting of carbon emission density was: Eastern China > Northeast China > Central and Southern China > Northern China > Southwest China > Northwest China from 1999 to 2003, but from 2004 Central and Southern China began to have higher carbon emission density than Northeast China, the order of other regions did not change. (3) Carbon footprint increased significantly since the rapid increasing of carbon emissions and less increasing area of pro-ductive land in different regions of China from 1999 to 2008. Northern China had the largest carbon footprint, and Northwest China, Eastern China, Northern China, Central and Southern China followed in turn, while Southwest China presented the lowest area of carbon footprint and the highest percentage of carbon absorption. (4) Mainly influenced by regional land area, Northern China presented the highest per unit area carbon footprint and followed by Eastern China, and Northeast China; Central and Southern China, and Northwest China had a similar medium per unit area carbon footprint; Southwest China always had the lowest per unit area carbon footprint. (5) China faced great ecological pressure brought by carbon emission. Some measures should be taken both from reducing carbon emission and increasing carbon absorption.     

经济层面和技术层面的碳减排研究

相关资料和事实表明,全球气候发生了很大的变化。二氧化碳是温室效应中最重要的温室气体,碳减排工作是缓解温室效应的一项重要措施,为当前科学研究热点之一。本文主要从经济和技术两个方面,较为系统和全面地介绍了当前碳减排方面的研究进展。经济层面的研究,包括数量化模型、碳税机制和碳减排附加效应几个方面。专业技术方面的研究,包括对碳行为的源汇和贮量的计算研究、碳循环研究、以及减少碳排放的工业技术的运用等。文章还简要提出了中国在碳减排研究方面应采取的几点措施。     

集聚空间组织型式对中国地市尺度工业SO2排放的影响

集聚外部性是集聚影响工业污染排放的重要机制,不同的集聚空间组织型式具有不同的污染排放行为和减排效果。以中国285个地市工业SO₂排放为例,依据集聚经济理论,将集聚空间组织型式细分为集聚密度、企业地理临近度、专业化、多样性、相关多样性、非相关多样性等不同类型,在系统分析工业SO₂排放与集聚空间格局的基础上,通过构建计量经济模型,考察了不同集聚空间组织型式对工业SO₂排放强度的影响。结果表明：① 工业SO₂排放强度与工业集聚密度在空间上具有非对称性,污染排放强度西高东低,工业集聚密度、企业地理临近、多样性、相关和非相关多样性为东中高西部低;② 工业集聚对工业SO₂排放强度的影响存在空间溢出效应,相邻地区集聚密度、多样性和相关多样性水平的上升有利于本区域工业污染排放强度的下降,但专业化水平的上升则会提升本区域的工业污染排放强度;③ 提高集聚密度、引导企业集中布局有利于工业SO₂排放强度下降,多样且关联的产业组织结构有利于污染减排,而专业化和非关联产业的集中会提高污染排放强度;④ 集聚型式对工业SO₂排放强度的影响存在区域和城市规模上的异质性,集聚密度、企业地理临近、多样性和相关多样性对中西部污染减排的作用比东部明显,专业化和非相关多样性不利于东中部地区的污染减排;城区人口规模20万以下的小城市提高集聚密度、减少多样性特别是非相关多样性更有利于污染减排;城区人口规模20~50万的小城市和50~100万的中等城市,提高企业的地理接近度和多样性水平特别是相关多样性水平,有利于其降低污染排放强度;城区人口规模在100万以上的大城市,提高集聚密度和产业多样性水平在一定程度上有利于其污染减排,但其减排效果因拥挤效应而明显下降;⑤ 进一步降低工业SO₂排放强度,需要走集聚化道路,坚持提高集聚密度,因地制宜引导企业集中布局,着力提高产业在关联基础上的多样性水平,加强区域间联防联控,重视区域间的产业联系与环保合作。     

Estimates of monoterpene and isoprene emissions from the forests in Switzerland

Emission rates of biogenic volatile organic compounds emitted by the forests were estimated for five geographical regions as well as for all Switzerland. Monoterpene and isoprene emissions rates were calculated for each main tree species separately using the relevant parameters such as temperature, light intensity and leaf biomass density. Biogenic emissions from the forests were found to be about 23% of the total annual VOC emissions (anthropogenic and biogenic) in Switzerland. The highest emissions are in July and lowest in January. Calculations showed that the coniferous trees are the main sources of the biogenic emissions. The major contribution comes from the Norway spruce (picea abies) forests due to their abundance and high leaf biomass density. Although broad-leaved forests cover 27% of all the forests in Switzerland, their contribution to the biogenic emissions is only 3%. Monoterpenes are the main species emitted, whereas only 3% is released as isoprene. The highest emission rates of biogenic VOC are estimated to be in the region of the Alps which has the largest forest coverage in Switzerland and the major part of these forests consists of Norway spruce. The total annual biogenic VOC emission rate of 87 ktonnes y^–1 coming from the forests is significantly higher than those from other studies where calculations were carried out by classifying the forests as deciduous and coniferous. The difference is attributed to the high leaf biomass densities of Norway spruce and fir (abies alba) trees which have a strong effect on the results when speciation of trees is taken into account. Besides the annual rate, emission rates were calculated for a specific period during July 4–6, 1991 when a photochemical smog episode was investigated in the Swiss field experiment POLLUMET. Emission rates estimated for that period agree well with those calculated for July using the average temperatures over the last 10 years.     

县域尺度下能源产区能源消费碳排放强度空间分异——以陕西省榆林市为例

以能源产区陕西省榆林市的12个区县为研究单元,在Geo Da和Arc GIS等软件的支持下,结合趋势分析和空间统计方法,分析2005—2010年榆林县域尺度下的能源消费碳排放强度的空间格局特征与空间分异机制。榆林各区县能源消费碳排放强度水平差异明显,总体差异呈扩大趋势,两极分化加剧。县域碳排放强度南北走向上表现出逐渐减小趋势,东西走向上具有微弱的"U"型变化态势。总体上,东北部区县碳排放强度高于西南部。各区县碳排放强度具有正的空间关联分布特征,且处于低水平非均衡空间分布状态,空间依赖性明显。结合相关性分析,榆林区县碳排放强度具有极化区、扩散区、塌陷区和传染区4个特征。"热点"主要分布在东北部三县,"冷点"主要分布于南部六县。能源资源分布不均、经济总量以及产业结构差异是造成榆林碳排放强度空间分布不均的主要原因。     

基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测

定量分析碳排放的影响因素,对降低区域碳排放具有重要的指导意义。利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析江苏省能源消费碳排放量与人口、富裕度（以人均GDP表示）、技术进步（以能源强度表示）和城镇化水平之间的关系,通过岭回归拟合后发现,人口数量、人均GDP、能源强度、城市化水平每变化1%,江苏省能源消费碳排放量将分别发生3.467%、(0.242+0.024 lnA)%、0.313%和0.151%的变化。在以上研究的基础上,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析了江苏省未来能源消费碳排放量的发展趋势。结果表明,当人口、经济保持低速增长,并保持高技术增长率时,有利于控制江苏省的能源消费碳排放量,2020年江苏省的能源消费碳排放量预测值为202.81 MtC。     

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of conventional energy carbon emissions in Kazakhstan based on LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT model

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO₂ emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO₂ emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO₂ emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO₂ emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO₂ emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused–110.90 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in–18.76 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO₂ emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO₂ emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively.     

Magmatic gas scrubbing: implications for volcano monitoring

Despite the abundance of SO_2(g) in magmatic gases, precursory increases in magmatic SO_2(g) are not always observed prior to volcanic eruption, probably because many terrestrial volcanoes contain abundant groundwater or surface water that scrubs magmatic gases until a dry pathway to the atmosphere is established. To better understand scrubbing and its implications for volcano monitoring, we model thermochemically the reaction of magmatic gases with water. First, we inject a 915°C magmatic gas from Merapi volcano into 25°C air-saturated water (ASW) over a wide range of gas/water mass ratios from 0.0002 to 100 and at a total pressure of 0.1 MPa. Then we model closed-system cooling of the magmatic gas, magmatic gas-ASW mixing at 5.0 MPa, runs with varied temperature and composition of the ASW, a case with a wide range of magmatic–gas compositions, and a reaction of a magmatic gas–ASW mixture with rock. The modeling predicts gas and water compositions, and, in one case, alteration assemblages for a wide range of scrubbing conditions; these results can be compared directly with samples from degassing volcanoes. The modeling suggests that CO_2(g) is the main species to monitor when scrubbing exists; another candidate is H₂S_(g), but it can be affected by reactions with aqueous ferrous iron. In contrast, scrubbing by water will prevent significant SO_2(g) and most HCl_(g) emissions until dry pathways are established, except for moderate HCl_(g) degassing from pH<0.5 hydrothermal waters. Furthermore, it appears that scrubbing will prevent much, if any, SO_2(g) degassing from long-resident boiling hydrothermal systems. Several processes can also decrease or increase H_2(g) emissions during scrubbing making H_2(g) a poor choice to detect changes in magma degassing.We applied the model results to interpret field observations and emission rate data from four eruptions: (1) Crater Peak on Mount Spurr (1992) where, except for a short post-eruptive period, scrubbing appears to have drastically diminished pre-, inter-, and post-eruptive SO_2(g) emissions, but had much less impact on CO_2(g) emissions. (2) Mount St. Helens where scrubbing of SO_2(g) was important prior to and three weeks after the 18 May 1980 eruption. Scrubbing was also active during a period of unrest in the summer of 1998. (3) Mount Pinatubo where early drying out prevented SO_2(g) scrubbing before the climactic 15 June 1991 eruption. (4) The ongoing eruption at Popocatépetl in an arid region of Mexico where there is little evidence of scrubbing.In most eruptive cycles, the impact of scrubbing will be greater during pre- and post-eruptive periods than during the main eruptive and intense passive degassing stages. Therefore, we recommend monitoring the following gases: CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) in precursory stages; CO_2(g), H₂S_(g), SO_2(g), HCl_(g), and HF_(g) in eruptive and intense passive degassing stages; and CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) again in the declining stages. CO_2(g) is clearly the main candidate for early emission rate monitoring, although significant early increases in the intensity and geographic distribution of H₂S_(g) emissions should be taken as an important sign of volcanic unrest and a potential precursor. Owing to the difficulty of extracting SO_2(g) from hydrothermal waters, the emergence of >100 t/d (tons per day) of SO_2(g) in addition to CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) should be taken as a criterion of magma intrusion. Finally, the modeling suggests that the interpretation of gas-ratio data requires a case-by-case evaluation since ratio changes can often be produced by several mechanisms; nevertheless, several gas ratios may provide useful indices for monitoring the drying out of gas pathways.