The fluvial flux of particulate organic matter from the UK: the emission factor of soil erosion

Soil erosion has been identified as a potential global carbon sink since eroded organic matter is replaced at source and eroded material is readily buried. However, this argument has relied on poor estimates of the total fate of in‐transit particulates and could erroneously imply soil erosion could be encouraged to generate carbon stores. These previous estimates have not considered that organic matter can also be released to the atmosphere as a range of greenhouse gases, not only carbon dioxide (CO₂), but also the more powerful greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). As soil carbon lost by erosion is only replaced by uptake of CO₂, this could represent a considerable imbalance in greenhouse gas warming potential, even if it is not significant in terms of overall carbon flux. This work therefore considers the flux of particulate organic matter through UK rivers with respect to both carbon fluxes and greenhouse gas emissions. The results show that, although emissions to the atmosphere are dominated by CO₂, there are also considerable fluxes of CH₄ and N₂O. The results suggest that soil erosion is a net source of greenhouse gases with median emission factors of 5.5, 4.4 and 0.3 tonnes CO_2eq/yr for one tonne of fluvial carbon, gross carbon erosion and gross soil erosion, respectively. This study concludes that gross soil erosion would therefore only be a net sink of both carbon and greenhouse gases if all the following criteria are met: the gross soil erosion rate were very low (<91 tonnes/km²/yr); the eroded carbon were completely replaced by new soil organic matter; and if less than half of the gross erosion made it into the stream network. By establishing the emission factor for soil erosion, it becomes possible to properly account for the benefits of good soil management in minimizing losses of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere as a by‐product of soil erosion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A shale gas revolution for China?

The question of whether China is on the verge of a ‘shale gas revolution’ is examined. This has potentially significant consequences for energy policy and climate change mitigation. Contrary to the optimistic reading of some commentators, it argues that various technological, environmental, political, regulatory and institutional factors will constrain the growth of China's shale gas market and that such a revolution might in any event have consequences that are at best mixed, at worst antithetical to climate change mitigation.Policy relevanceChina's reserves of unconventional gas have the potential to transform energy policy, as has occurred in the US, resulting in the substitution of shale gas for coal in the energy mix. Because gas emits only approximately half the GHG per unit as coal, such a move would have important implications for climate policy. However, substantial obstacles stand in the way of the ‘energy revolution’ that some policy analysts see China as embarking upon. The need to acknowledge these obstacles, particularly those relating to regulation and governance (and whether or to what extent they can be overcome), is an issue of profound importance to the future of climate and energy policy.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

ESTIMATE OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM RICE FIELDS IN CHINA BY CLIMATE-BASED NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY

1INTRODUCTIONIrrigated ricefieldsarecharacterizedbylargespatialandtemporalvariationsin CH4 emissiontotheatmo-sphere.Accordingly,thereisagreatuncertaintyintheestimate ofCH4 emissionsfromricefields.GreateffortshavebeenmadetoestimatetheCH4 emissionsfromricefieldsandseveralapproacheshavebeendeveloped.TherepresentativemethodsincludetheIPCC(Inter-governmentPanelofClimateChange)region-specificemissionfactormethodandthemodelcalculationmethod.Toimprovethecalculationaccuracy,theIPCCmethodreq…     

Country-specific dietary shifts to mitigate climate and water crises

Undernutrition, obesity, climate change, and freshwater depletion share food and agricultural systems as an underlying driver. Efforts to more closely align dietary patterns with sustainability and health goals could be better informed with data covering the spectrum of countries characterized by over- and undernutrition. Here, we model the greenhouse gas (GHG) and water footprints of nine increasingly plant-forward diets, aligned with criteria for a healthy diet, specific to 140 countries. Results varied widely by country due to differences in: nutritional adjustments, baseline consumption patterns from which modeled diets were derived, import patterns, and the GHG- and water-intensities of foods by country of origin. Relative to exclusively plant-based (vegan) diets, diets comprised of plant foods with modest amounts of low-food chain animals (i.e., forage fish, bivalve mollusks, insects) had comparably small GHG and water footprints. In 95 percent of countries, diets that only included animal products for one meal per day were less GHG-intensive than lacto-ovo vegetarian diets (in which terrestrial and aquatic meats were eliminated entirely) in part due to the GHG-intensity of dairy foods. The relatively optimal choices among modeled diets otherwise varied across countries, in part due to contributions from deforestation (e.g., for feed production and grazing lands) and highly freshwater-intensive forms of aquaculture. Globally, modest plant-forward shifts (e.g., to low red meat diets) were offset by modeled increases in protein and caloric intake among undernourished populations, resulting in net increases in GHG and water footprints. These and other findings highlight the importance of trade, culture, and nutrition in diet footprint analyses. The country-specific results presented here could provide nutritionally-viable pathways for high-meat consuming countries as well as transitioning countries that might otherwise adopt the Western dietary pattern.     

中国房间空气调节器行业节能减排潜力分析

2012年,中国房间空气调节器（空调器）保有量约为3.57亿台,依据抽样调查数据计算得到保有量装机容量,采用各省市夏季平均温度估算超过26℃的时间作为运行时间计算得出年电力消耗约3.28×1011 kW?h,折合碳排放约为318 Mt CO₂当量。由于空调器国内需求量将进一步增长,预计到2030年保有量将达到当前的4～5倍。在电力结构不变情景下,空调器总体能效提高1倍,2030年空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放约为603 Mt CO₂当量。假设空调器总体能效提高1倍、高能效产品消费比例进一步提高并伴随中国能源结构调整,如水电、核电、太阳能等低碳能源比例不断提高,在满足中国空调器需求的前提下,2030年中国空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放可以争取控制在当前的水平。     

大型公园绿地对住宅价格的时空影响效应——以上海市黄兴公园绿地为例

随着居民生活质量的提高和环保意识的增强,居民对环境舒适的支付意愿不断提高。居住环境的价值评估研究受到关注,但对其作用时间和空间影响程度差异的量化研究明显不足。本文以上海市黄兴公园绿地为例,综合运用市场比较法、特征定价法和多元回归分析等方法,并引入加权距离,从时间和空间两个层面分析黄兴公园绿地对周边住宅价格的影响效应,结果表明:黄兴公园绿地所带来的住宅价格增值效应既具有时间上的差异性,又与加权距离存在着显著的二次函数关系,随着距离增加其增值幅度呈下降趋势;其影响效应与加权距离存在着显著的三次函数关系,最大影响半径为1.59km,最强影响区位为0.29km。     

区域土地利用影响地表CO2浓度异质性特征的动力学机制

本文综合应用高斯方程和拉姆齐模型,针对京津冀地区2000年以来10 km×10 km栅格尺度的地表CO₂浓度开展研究,分析了区域土地利用影响地表CO₂浓度异质性特征的动力学机制。研究发现：① 地表CO₂浓度与土地利用类型密切相关。2000—2018年京津冀地区CO₂浓度的高值区主要集中于经济较发达的快速城镇化地区;② 土地利用强度及土地利用效率上的时空分异为地表CO₂扩散提供了潜在的势能。京津冀地区地表CO₂排放及扩散存在明显的空间异质性,距离CO₂排放高值区越近,其相应的CO₂浓度越高并随时间推移及空间拓展呈逐步减小的态势;③ 京津冀地区在土地利用结构调整、格局优化及效率提升后,CO₂排放强度增幅明显减弱,其区域间的增幅差异也逐渐缩小。产业转型发展、土地利用格局优化、土地利用效率提高有效地抑制了京津冀地区地表CO₂排放强度的提升并促进了该区域的内涵式增长与高质量发展。     

新疆碳排放影响因素分析与政策建议

气候变化和二氧化碳减排问题已引起全世界的关注.本文运用岭回归分析1995-2008 年新疆碳排放与人口、经济、技术间的关系,并进一步探讨了产业结构和主导产业对碳排放的影响,以寻找减排的技术路线和对策,推动区域低碳经济的发展.结果表明：①不合理的经济结构和人口增长对碳排放有显著的推动作用,技术进步虽在一定程度上缓解了碳排放,但影响甚微;②新疆过分依赖自然资源的经济增长方式和以第二产业为主的经济结构是导致温室气体排放量增加的主要原因;③研究期间,新疆的主导产业均为以石油天然气开采、石油化工、煤化工为主的重工业,但其在工业总产值的比重却有较大提升,导致对能源的消耗急剧增加.未来在全球化背景下,新疆应转变经济增长模式,加大生态保护力度,更多地依靠科技创新、技术进步和制度的改进,大力发展低碳产业.     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).