When does economic development promote mitigation and why?

Is economic development compatible with mitigation? On the one hand, development should promote effective climate policy by enhancing states’ capacities for mitigation. On the other hand, economic growth creates more demand for production, thereby inhibiting emissions reduction. These arguments are often reconciled in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) thesis. According to this approach, development initially increases emissions in poor economies, but begins to lower emissions after a country has attained a certain level of development.

The aim of this article is to determine empirically whether the EKC hypothesis seems plausible in light of emissions trends over the birth and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Drawing on data from the World Bank World Development Indicators and World Resources Institute Climate Data Explorer, it conducts a large-N investigation of the emissions behaviour of 120 countries from 1990 to 2012. While several quantitative studies have found that economic factors influence emissions activity, this article goes beyond existing research by employing a more sophisticated – multilevel – research design to determine whether economic development: (a) continues to be a significant driver once country-level clustering is accounted for and (b) has different effects on different countries. The results of this article indicate that, even after we account for country-level clustering and hold constant the other main putative drivers of emissions activity, economic development tends to inhibit emissions reduction. They also provide strong evidence that emissions trends resemble the EKC, with development significantly constraining emissions reduction in the South and promoting it in the North.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This article contributes to the understanding of the (changing) role of economic development in shaping emissions activity. It demonstrates the need for a contextualized, country-specific approach for evaluating the effectiveness of economic development in promoting emissions reduction and uncovers new evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis.     

The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.     

Reducing fugitive methane emissions from the North American oil and gas sector: a proposed science-policy framework

The shale gas boom in the United States spurred a shift in electricity generation from coal to natural gas. Natural gas combined cycle units emit half of the CO₂ to produce the same energy as a coal unit; therefore, the market trend is credited for a reduction in GHG emissions from the US power sector. However, methane that escapes the natural gas supply chain may undercut these relative climate benefits. In 2016, Canada, the United States and Mexico pledged to reduce methane emissions from the oil and natural gas sector 40–45% from 2012 levels by 2025. This article reviews the science-policy landscape of methane measurement and mitigation relevant for meeting this pledge, including changes in US policy following the 2016 presidential election. Considerable policy incoherence exists in all three countries. Reliable inventories remain elusive; despite government and private sector research efforts, the magnitude of methane emissions remains in dispute. Meanwhile, mitigation efforts vary significantly. A framework that integrates science and policy would enable actors to more effectively inform, leverage and pursue advances in methane measurement and mitigation. The framework is applied to North America, but could apply to other geographic contexts.

Key policy insights

• The oil and gas sector’s contribution to atmospheric methane concentrations is becoming an increasingly prominent issue in climate policy.

• Efforts to measure and control fugitive methane emissions do not presently proceed within a coherent framework that integrates science and policy.

• In 2016, the governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States pledged to reduce methane emissions from the oil and natural gas sector 40–45% from 2012 levels by 2025.

• The 2016 presidential election in the United States has halted American progress at the federal level, suggesting a heavier reliance on industry and subnational efforts in that country.

• Collectively or individually, the countries, individual agencies, or private stakeholders could use the proposed North American Methane Reduction framework to direct research, enhance monitoring and evaluate mitigation efforts, and improve the chances that continental methane reduction targets will be achieved.

     

Carbon pricing in practice: a review of existing emissions trading systems

This article analyses the implementation of emissions trading systems (ETSs) in eight jurisdictions: the EU, Switzerland, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and California in the US, Québec in Canada, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and pilot schemes in China. The article clarifies what is working, what isn’t and why, when it comes to the practice of implementing an ETS. The eight ETSs are evaluated against five main criteria: environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, market management, revenue management and stakeholder engagement. Within each of these categories, ETS attributes ? including abatement cost, stringency of the cap, improved allocation practices over time and the trajectory of price stability ? are assessed for each system. Institutional learning, administrative prudence, appropriate carbon revenue management and stakeholder engagement are identified as key ingredients for successful ETS regimes. Recent implementation of ETSs in regions including California, Québec and South Korea indicates significant institutional learning from prior systems, especially the EU ETS, with these regions implementing more robust administrative and regulatory structures suitable for handling unique national and sub-national opportunities and constraints. The analysis also shows that there is potential for a ‘double dividend’ in emissions reductions even with a modest carbon price, provided the cap tightens over time and a portion of the auctioned revenues are reinvested in other emissions-reduction activities. Knowledge gaps exist in understanding the interaction of pricing instruments with other climate policy instruments and how governments manage these policies to achieve optimum emissions reductions with lower administrative costs.

Key policy insights

• Countries are learning from each other on ETS implementation.

• Administrative and regulatory structures of ETS jurisdictions appear to evolve and become more robust in every ETS analysed.

• A ‘double dividend’ for emissions reductions may also exist in cases where mitigation occurs as a result of the ETS policy and when auction revenues are reinvested in other emissions-reduction activities.

     

美国碳排放权交易体系评析

通过评析当前美国最主要的两类碳排放交易体系--自愿减排和总量控制与交易体系的发展现状与前景得到,自愿减排终因需求不足而难以维系,只有建立碳排放的总量控制与交易体系,才能进行持续的碳交易,完成减碳目标。借鉴美国区域温室气体行动、西部气候倡议和加州总量控制与交易体系的经验,建议中国选择具有一定基础的省份或行业试行总量控制与交易体系,初期排放配额的分配以免费发放为主,拍卖为辅,并严格控制碳抵消的数量和范围等,然后再逐步过渡到拍卖方式。     

未来甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧的影响

利用一个耦合的大气化学-气候模式(WACCM3)研究了地表甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧变化的影响.结果表明,如果地表甲烷的排放量在2000年的基础上增加50%(达到政府间气候变化专门委员会A1B排放情景中2050年的值),平流层水汽体积分数将平均增加约0.8×10^-6.南半球平流层甲烷转化为水汽的效率比北半球高.在北半球平流层中,1mol甲烷分子可以转化为约1.63mol的水汽分子,而在南半球1mol甲烷分子大概可以转化为约1.82mol的水汽分子.甲烷排放增加50%将使全球中低纬度地区以及北半球高纬度地区的臭氧柱总量增加1%-3%,使南半球高纬度地区臭氧柱总量增加近8%,而秋季(南半球春季)南极地区臭氧柱总量增加幅度可高达20%,南极臭氧的这种显着增加主要是由于甲烷增加造成的化学反馈所致.在北半球中高纬度地区,甲烷增加引起的臭氧变化主要与甲烷氧化导致的水汽增加有关.研究还表明,未来甲烷排放增加对臭氧的恢复作用其实与溴化物排放的减少一样重要.     

上海城市二氧化碳排放空间特征

构建上海1 km CO₂排放网格,分析市域（UB1）、市辖区（UB2）、建成区（UB3）和城区（UB4）4个城市范围的CO₂排放特征。上海市域CO2排放空间格局是以中心城区为核心,排放水平向外递减,形成了3个梯度。空间自相关分析表明,排放在空间上存在显著的集聚效应,部分地区高强度的经济活动和能源活动对周边区域的排放有显著影响。UB4是上海城市的最佳表征,2007年UB4内CO₂排放达到1.89亿t,人均排放12.04 t;UB4排放占UB1排放的75.40%,UB1人均排放比UB4人均排放高12%。上海城市化和工业化在空间上的高度重合,导致高排放源集聚于UB4内,形成UB4的高排放特征。个别网格的排放量已经占到区域或者城市总排放量的10%～20%;前10高和前100高排放网格,其累积排放总量分别占据了3个城市范围（UB1、UB3和UB4）总排放量的60%和80%以上。     

Food choices,health and environment: Effects of cutting Europe's meat and dairy intake

Western diets are characterised by a high intake of meat, dairy products and eggs, causing an intake of saturated fat and red meat in quantities that exceed dietary recommendations. The associated livestock production requires large areas of land and lead to high nitrogen and greenhouse gas emission levels. Although several studies have examined the potential impact of dietary changes on greenhouse gas emissions and land use, those on health, the agricultural system and other environmental aspects (such as nitrogen emissions) have only been studied to a limited extent. By using biophysical models and methods, we examined the large-scale consequences in the European Union of replacing 25–50% of animal-derived foods with plant-based foods on a dietary energy basis, assuming corresponding changes in production. We tested the effects of these alternative diets and found that halving the consumption of meat, dairy products and eggs in the European Union would achieve a 40% reduction in nitrogen emissions, 25–40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and 23% per capita less use of cropland for food production. In addition, the dietary changes would also lower health risks. The European Union would become a net exporter of cereals, while the use of soymeal would be reduced by 75%. The nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of the food system would increase from the current 18% to between 41% and 47%, depending on choices made regarding land use. As agriculture is the major source of nitrogen pollution, this is expected to result in a significant improvement in both air and water quality in the EU. The resulting 40% reduction in the intake of saturated fat would lead to a reduction in cardiovascular mortality. These diet-led changes in food production patterns would have a large economic impact on livestock farmers and associated supply-chain actors, such as the feed industry and meat-processing sector.     

NOx or VOC Limitation in East German Ozone Plumes?

The ozone forming potential of VOCs and NO_x for plumes observed from several cities and a power plant in eastern Germany was investigated. A closed box model with a gas phase photochemical reaction mechanism was employed to simulate several scenarios based upon aircraft observations. In several of the scenarios, the initial concentrations of NO_x, VOCs, and SO₂, were reduced to study the factors limiting the O₃ production. Ozone production was limited by the initial VOC concentrations for all of the simulated plumes. Higher O₃ concentrations were produced with reduced initial NO_x. In one sample with high SO₂ mixing ratios (>100 ppb), SO₂ was also identified as a significant contributor to the production of O₃.     

以科学发展观为指导，积极应对气候变化

气候变化已经对全球生态、环境、经济和社会可持续发展以及外交和国家安全产生极大影响,引起各国政府、公众和学术界的极大关注。气候变化关系人类的生存和发展,应对气候变化实现可持续发展具有重要性和紧迫性。我们要以科学发展观为指导,把握好共同但有区别的责任,积极应对气候变化。