1991-2010年中国大陆化石能源消费的CO2排放研究（英文）

本文采用IPCC推荐的表观消费量法计算了中国大陆30省区1991到2010年化石能源消费产生的CO2排放,发现:(1)排放总量由 2293.01Mt 增长到 7467.77Mt;(2)煤炭消费的排放比重最高达到79.98%;(3)人均排放量由 1.98t 增长至 5.57t;(4)CO2排放强度显著降低,由6.66 kg USD-1降至1.07kg USD-1,近年来趋于稳定;(5)区域发展不平衡始终存在,根据省际数据,在一些落后地区经济增长过度依赖于化石能源消费。关于CO2高排放,中国已经做出承诺并采取了行动。基于对可持续发展和全球气候变化不确定性的综合考虑,健康的产业结构、化石能源集约利用,以及区域发展平衡应更加受到重视。     

不同游客吸引半径景区国内旅游交通碳排放特征比较

旅游交通是旅游业碳排放的最重要环节。选择具有不同游客吸引半径的福州国家森林公园、太姥山山岳景区、武夷山风景名胜区为研究对象,通过对游客交通的问卷调查,探讨不同景区国内旅游交通碳排放的基本规律。研究表明,随着游客吸引半径增加,人均碳排放量显著增加,表现为福州森林公园<太姥山<武夷山。虽然每人每公里碳排放量亦表现为福州森林公园<太姥山<武夷山,但人均旅行距离的增大则是人均碳排放量增加的最主要因素。在350 km以内,每人每公里碳排放量和人均碳排放量随距离增加变化不明显或略微下降;而350 km以上,两者均随距离增加而急剧增长,这与距离对交通方式选择的影响有关。从旅游交通碳排放特征看,350 km大致可作为中途和长途旅行划分的界线。3个景区的年碳排放总量大小顺序为:武夷山>太姥山>福州森林公园,平均碳排放密度则表现为武夷山>福州森林公园>太姥山。各景区长途旅游者和乘坐飞机旅游者均占景区旅游交通碳排放的大部分,且其比例随景区游客吸引半径的增加而增多。因而减少长途旅行和乘坐飞机次数是降低景区旅游交通碳排放量的重要途径。     

Critical distances: Comparing measures of spatial accessibility in the riverine landscapes of Peruvian Amazonia

Quantitative measures of accessibility are increasingly used in land cover change modeling and in assessing human pressure on the environment. In riverine Amazonia the significance of physical accessibility for biodiversity, land use patterns and economic livelihoods is widely acknowledged, but attempts to quantify accessibility in practice have been few in number. In this study we compare different distance- and frequency-based measures of spatial accessibility and develop a quantitative model of accessibility patterns for the north-eastern Peruvian Amazonia where rivers form the core of the transportation network. We model accessibility between the rural areas of the Loreto region and the capital city of Iquitos, using different distance algorithms in a geographic information system, and complement the distance model with information on river boat frequencies and transport capacities. Patterns of accessibility are visualized in terms of potential production zones for different types of agricultural and non-timber forest products.This study demonstrates how results from different accessibility measures vary considerably. The mean Euclidean distance to Iquitos is almost 270 km, the mean network distance nearly 760 km and the mean travel time 70 h. Observed network distances from validation points to Iquitos are on average 1.6 times longer than Euclidean distances, and for the whole study area, the average ratio between modeled network distances and Euclidean distances is 3.1. The correlation between network distances and time distances is very strong, but time distances are relatively shorter along the major channels where boat traffic is considerably faster than along narrow, tightly meandering rivers. Measures of boat frequency and transport capacity show that availability of transport possibilities is highly varying across the region. These measures provide insights into the ’thickness’ of trade, indicating the level of market integration for riverine settlements. We conclude that quantifying accessibility in an environment like Peruvian Amazonia requires measures that take into account the spatial structure and dynamic nature of the riverine transportation network. Time as a unit of distance provides the most relevant measure of accessibility in the Amazonian context, where many human actions and traditional livelihoods are controlled by travel times between the regional core and the hinterland.     

1999—2009年新疆能源消费碳排放的因素分解及实证研究

从影响因素角度用LMDI分解方法对新疆1999—2009年的碳排放进行研究。结果表明:能源结构和能源强度对新疆人均碳排放增长起抑制效应,且能源强度的抑制效应大于能源结构的抑制效应;产业规模和人口规模对新疆人均碳排放增长起拉动效应,且产业规模的拉动效应大于人口规模的拉动效应。能源强度和能源结构的抑制效应难以抵消由产业规模和人口规模拉动的新疆人均碳排放的增长。在实证研究结果的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a需求和排放预测

 近年来HFC-134a作为中国汽车空调行业CFC-12制冷剂最主要的替代品,其消费量增长迅速,是中国消费量最大的HFCs（氢氟烃类物质）。以2005年为基线,通过制冷剂替代、技术进步、熟练操作和政策控制等情景假设,预测了中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a的需求量及排放量。结果表明：到2010和2015年,汽车空调HFC-134a的消费量将分别接近2.0万和3.5万t,排放量将分别接近1.6万和3.0万t,约折合排放21.0 和39.0 Mt CO₂当量。上述排放相对基线情景（即维持当前政策措施和不开展回收活动）,2010年和2015年减排温室气体分别为6.7 和13.0 Mt CO₂当量。     

CO2 Flux Estimation by Different Regression Methods from an Alpine Meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

CO2 efflux was estimated using different regression methods in static chamber observation from an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The CO2 efflux showed a seasonal pattern, with the maximun flux occurring in the middle of July. The temperature sensitivity of CO2 efflux (Q10> was 3.9, which was at the high end of the range of global values. CO2 emissions calculated by linear and nonlinear regression were significantly different (p<0.05). Compared with the linear regression, CO2 emissions calculated by exponential regression and quadratic regression were 12.7% and 11.2% larger, respectively. However, there were no significant differences in temperature sensitivity values estimated by the three methods. In the entire growing season, the CO2 efflux estimated by linear regression may be underestimated by up to 25% compared to the real CO2 efflux. Consequently, great caution should be taken when using published flux data obtained by linear regression of static chamber observations to estimate the regional CO2 flux in alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.     

Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.     

全球气候模式对宁夏区域未来气候变化的情景模拟分析

利用多个全球气候模式(GCM)的情景模拟结果分析只考虑温室气体效应的IS92a GG情景和同时考虑温室气体效应和硫化物气溶胶辐射效应的IS92aGS情景以及SRESA2、B2情景下宁夏区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的可能变化,并进行不确定性分析。气候基准时段(1961~1990年)模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明,GCM对宁夏气候具有一定的模拟能力;整体上讲,GCM对地面气温的模拟值偏低,对降水量的模拟值偏高,其中ECHAM4和HadCM3对宁夏基准时段地面气温和降水量的模拟结果与观测比较接近。各GCM模拟值的平均结果显示,4种温室气体排放情景下21世纪宁夏区域气温持续升高,至21世纪末宁夏升温幅度可达4~6℃,与全国平均的增温幅度大致相当;与升温趋势相应的是降水量的增加,但降水变化呈现出很大的波动性,至21世纪末宁夏的降水变化幅度可达10%~40%。各个GCM模拟的宁夏气候变化的总趋势是一致的,但各模式在不同情景下模拟结果的差异很大,存在较大的不确定性。     

Lunar Prospector measurements of secondary electron emission from lunar regolith

We present the first in situ measurements of the secondary electron emission efficiency of lunar regolith, utilizing Lunar Prospector measurements of secondary electrons emitted from the negatively charged night side and accelerated upward by surface electric fields. By comparing measurements of secondary currents emitted from the surface and incident primary electron currents, we find that the secondary yield of lunar regolith is a factor of ∼3 lower than that measured for samples in the laboratory. This lower yield significantly affects current balance at the lunar surface and the resulting equilibrium surface potentials. This information must be folded into models of the near-surface plasma sheath, in order to predict the effects on dust and other components of the lunar environment, and ultimately determine the importance for surface exploration and scientific investigations on the Moon.     

The bulk kinetic power of radio jets in active galactic nuclei

Based on the Königl's inhomogeneous jet model, we estimate the jet parameters, such as bulk Lorentz factor Γ, viewing angle θ and electron number density n _e from radio very long-baseline interferometry and X-ray data for a sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) assuming that the X-rays are from the jet rather than the intracluster gas. The bulk kinetic power of jets is then calculated using the derived jet parameters. We find a strong correlation between the total luminosity of broad emission lines and the bulk kinetic power of the jets. This result supports the scenario that the accretion process is tightly linked with the radio jets, though how the disc and jet are coupled is not revealed by present correlation analysis. Moreover, we find a significant correlation between the bulk kinetic power and radio extended luminosity. This implies that the emission from the radio lobes is closely related with the energy flux transported through jets from the central part of AGNs.