Lidar observations of subvisual atmospheric phenomena: Research note

Abstract

The systematic error of a large ensemble of 72 ‐h forecasts, as produced by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's spectral model, is studied with particular emphasis on its seasonal and spatial character. By decomposing the error into wavenumber space, we show that most of the error manifests itself in the long planetary waves. We find that the model displays a large systematic error in zonal wavenumber one, which systematically moves westward during each integration.     

湘西地区高架雷暴类冰雹的基本特征与关键预报因子

利用常规气象观测资料,对2005—2014年湖南省湘西州2—3月高架雷暴类冰雹的时空分布特征、天气系统配置及环境场要素特征等进行统计分析,探讨高架雷暴类冰雹发生发展的物理机制。结果表明,湘西早春时期的高架雷暴类冰雹南部地区多于中北部地区,具有一定的日变化。影响高架雷暴类冰雹的主要天气系统为高空槽、700hPa急流以及冷空气等。潜势预报指标包括:850hPa相对湿度大于等于92%,700hPa相对湿度大于等于60%,500hPa相对湿度小于等于48.5%;850hPa存在强的温度锋区,温差大于等于13℃/5个纬度;700hPa与500hPa的温差大于等于15℃;700hPa有风速大于等于16m·s~(-1)的西南急流,且850hPa与700hPa的垂直风切变大于等于19m·s~(-1);0℃层高度为3~4km,-20℃层高度为6~7km。     

江西副高边缘雷暴大风雷达拼图回波特征分析

利用MICAPS常规天气图资料、地面自动气象站资料、雷电资料和雷达拼图等资料,采用天气图中分析方法、统计方法、回波图像、回波廓线等分析方法,对2020年7月11日江西副热带高压边缘中尺度雷暴大风回波特征进行分析,结果表明：1）副热带高压控制或边缘上,江西上空100 hPa是东北风,500 hPa是西南风,高空呈现逆时针环流,T-lnP图上层结不稳定,对流有效位能CAPE （Convective Available Potential Energy）面积较大,对产生强对流天气有利;由于上下两层的风向不同,使得雷暴回波系统的移动与回波系统的云砧伸展方向不一致,从而加剧了对流上升运动,使得雷暴回波系统发展、加强、维持。2）回波产生初期是局地对流单体回波,通过不断新生单体和单体合并等方式,形成南北走向的回波短带,这种合并形成的回波短带发展旺盛时,会产生多站雷暴大风天气。3）南北走向的回波短带是产生雷暴大风的主要回波特征,虽然回波强度只有55 dBZ,但移动速度较快（60～70 km/h）,造成地面大风。江西WebGIS雷达拼图上叠加多部雷达风暴跟踪信息STI （Storm Tracking Information）,可以明确风暴的移动方向和移动速度,根据STI密集区判断,增加了STI的可用性。4）“前伸”或“延伸”回波反映了回波系统上方的高空风走向和积雨云的云砧飘离方向。“延伸”回波一定程度上表现出副高边缘雷暴回波系统的强弱程度。为改进副热带高压边缘中尺度雷暴大风的预警预报准确率提供依据。     

阿勒泰地区雷暴的气候特征分析

利用1969-2008年阿勒泰地区吉木乃、哈巴河、布尔津、阿勒泰市、福海、富蕴、青河等7个气象站雷暴天气的观测资料,分析了雷暴活动的时空分布特征。结果表明：阿勒泰各地年平均雷暴日数为12~24d,西部比东部多,北部比南部多,高山地区较多,平原地区较少;雷暴天气集中出现在5~8月,各地雷暴的年变化都为单峰型,峰值在7月;各地雷暴日数年代际变化均为线性减少型;小波分析显示出各地雷暴年变化都存在16d的震荡周期;雷电灾害随着社会经济的发展在加重。     

中国中东部强对流天气的天气形势分类和基本要素配置特征

本文通过对2000年以来中国近百次强对流天气个例的环境场进行分析,并查阅大量文献资料,综合考虑强对流天气形成的热力不稳定、动力抬升和水汽这三个基本条件出发,从强对流的不稳定条件和主要触发条件的角度,提出中国强对流天气5种基本类别:冷平流强迫类、暖平流强迫类、斜压锋生类、准正压类、高架对流类,并给出了基本解释。高空冷平流强迫类的典型特征是500hPa以上的中高层强干冷平流加强并移到边界层内暖性的辐合带中。暖平流强迫类的主要特征则是不稳定发展主要源于低层强烈的暖湿平流。斜压锋生类的特征是中低层冷暖空气强烈交汇产生的深厚对流,即斜压锋生造成的强对流往往表现为高空干冷平流和低空暖湿平流都很强烈。准正压类多发生在夏季副热带高压外侧或内部、温度梯度较弱的地区,流场上的动力强迫和和地面局地受热不均起主要作用。高架对流类的特征是700~500 hPa强的西南急流在边界层内的冷垫上被抬升,不稳定能量是来自700 hPa以上。通过从形成机制的差异性进行分类,有助于更好地把握各种强对流过程中不同的天气特征、系统配置、动力热力特征及其短期潜势分析重点,为进一步提高该类天气的预报预警水平提供更多的技术支持。     

乌鲁木齐地区雷暴的气候特征

统计分析了乌鲁木齐地区4个代表站点1971-2007年的雷暴气候特征,结果表明：雷暴日山区多,市区和达坂城区少;37a来各地的雷暴日数随着时间的推移均呈逐渐减少趋势,各地雷暴平均活动期出现在4—9月,最多出现在7月,一日当中雷暴主要发生在午后14时至前半夜02时,各地雷暴持续时间以30min之内为多,各地的雷暴活动方位以偏北方向为最少,山区的雷暴持续期最长。该研究为今后进一步做好本地区防雷减灾工作提供了一定的参考依据。     

受火钢筋混凝土柱三维温度场的数值模拟

受火构件内部温度场随时间和空间的变化规律对结构和构件的高温响应和抗火性能是至关重要的。应用通用有限元分析程序ABAQUS,对火灾下钢筋混凝土柱的二维温度场和三维温度场进行了有限元分析计算。所得计算结果与相关试验数据吻合,证明了通过通用有限元软件对钢筋混凝土结构进行三维温度场分析的可行性,也为混凝土结构在高温下以及高温后的三维响应分析提供了理论依据。     

A HYDROLOGICAL BUDGET FOR THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP WATERSHED, 1981-82

Previous hydrological models of the Okefenokee Swamp watershed were developed without the benefit of accurate empirical data on surface runoff into and out of the swamp, and without data on direct ground water flow into the swamp. Data from a network of ground water observation wells during 1981-82 have revealed that ground water amounted to only 1.3% of total swamp inputs. This figure is much lower than had been expected and confirms that the swamp portion of the Okefenokee watershed is predominantly a surface-water system. A simple conceptual model of the watershed hydrology with upland and swamp compartments, and upland wetland, upland terrestrial, swamp prairie-marsh, and swamp forest-shrub subcompartments, indicates that in 1981-82 actual evapotranspiration from uplands and swamp was 78% and 84% of precipitation, respectively, and that upland surface runoff contributed only 13% of swamp inputs. Significant differences between the long-term and 1981-82 hydrological budgets emphasize that the Okefenokee Swamp is a dynamic hydrological system.     

Effect of foundation embedment on seismic behavior of elevated tanks considering fluid–structure-soil interaction

This paper investigates the effects of foundation embedment on the seismic behavior of fluid-elevated tank-foundation–soil system with a structural frame supporting the fluid containing tank. Six different soil types defined in the well-known seismic codes were considered. Both the sloshing effects of the fluid and soil-structure interaction of the elevated tanks located on these six different soils were included in the analyses. Fluid-elevated tank-foundation–soil systems were modeled with the finite element (FE) technique. The fluid-structure interaction was taken into account using Lagrangian fluid FE approximation implemented in the general purpose structural analysis computer program, ANSYS. FE model with viscous boundary was used to include elevated tank-foundation–soil interaction effects. The models were analyzed for the foundations with and without embedment. It was found that the tank roof displacements were affected significantly by the embedment in soft soil, however, this effect was smaller for stiff soil types. Except for soft soil types, embedment did not affect the other response parameters, such as sloshing displacement, of the systems considered in this study.     

高桩防撞墩动力大变形分析及防撞设计新方法

通过引入合理的船舶与防撞墩相互作用模型及桩基动力p-y曲线法,建立船舶撞击高桩防撞墩的动力学分析模型。通过分析撞击系统的动力响应及能量转移规律发现,撞击过程中水平变形性能较好的高桩通过水平大变形而吸收大部分撞击能量,此时高桩破坏以桩身最大弯矩作为控制标准;船首强度、混凝土防撞墩总质量及桩周土强度参数对撞击过程中桩身最大弯矩影响不大。传统水上结构防撞设计方法不再适于这类刚度较小结构的防撞设计,通过对比分析,提出了工程上适用的基于能量控制的防撞设计新方法。