一种夏季强雷雨预报因子的选取方法

为了提高对武汉天河机场夏季强雷雨天气预报准确率,利用极值剔除法选取了5个预报因子;这些因子分别与中低层大气和地面的温度、湿度等要素有关。将预报结论与天气实况进行对比后发现:极值剔除法所得的预报因子可以有效地减少夏季强雷雨的漏报率。     

Fairweather atmospheric electricity at Antarctica during local summer as observed from Indian station,Maitri

Surface measurements of the atmospheric electrical parameters like Maxwell current, electric field and conductivity studied at the Indian station, Maitri (70.75° S, 11.75° E, 117 m above mean sea level), Antarctica, during austral summer have been analyzed for the years 2001 to 2004. A total of 69 days were selected which satisfied the ‘fairweather’ conditions, i.e., days with absence of high winds, drifting or falling snow, clouds, and fog effects. The diurnal variation curve of electric field and vertical current averaged for 69 fairweather days is a single periodic with a minimum at 03:00 UT and a maximum near 19:00 UT, which is very similar to the Carnegie curve. The correlation coefficient between these measured parameters has a high value (more than 0.9) for all the days. During fairweather days the measured current and field variations are similar and hence it is clear that the conductivity is more or less stable. During magnetically disturbed days, the dawn-dusk potential drop has clear influences on the diurnal variation and it modifies the conductivity. Apart from the day-to-day variation in low latitude thunderstorm activity, there are diurnal, seasonal, inter-annual variations in the electric potential and the currents, as well as solar influences on the measured parameters. This study will help us to examine the impact of solar and geophysical phenomena like solar flares, geomagnetic storms and substorms on the global electric circuit.     

基于地基微波辐射计资料对成都双流机场两次雷雨过程的分析

利用地基微波辐射计资料,比较了2017年7月成都双流机场的两次雷雨过程,根据天气形势分为"两高切变"和"东高西低"2类,在此基础上分析微波辐射计要素变化特征,结果表明:在垂直方向0～10 km,以相对湿度达到80%来区分干区和湿区,则两次过程前3 h,相对湿度在垂直方向均呈现"上下干、中间湿"三层结构,并早于近地层前2 h达到饱和状态;过程期间相对湿度呈现"上干、下湿"两层结构;过程结束后湿层抬高,低层变干。两次过程水汽含量充沛,保持在70 kg/m~2以上,峰值超过85 kg/m~2。每一次中阵雨发生后水汽含量都会短暂回落,但仍高于过程前的数值,不足2 h后再次发生中阵雨。由0℃线高度变化可知,降水过程中,暖区(温度≥0℃)内相对湿度≥90%;云中液态水含量主要分布于6 km以下,温度在0℃以上的液态水占比很高,故两次过程以暖云降水为主。雷雨前1 h左右有"低层气温上升,0℃层抬升,K指数、CAPE指数也明显增大"的典型特征。降水发生在相对湿度、水汽总含量、云中液态水含量和稳定度指数快速增长的波峰中。     

安溪雷暴24h潜势预报模型研究

利用安溪县国家气象站2004年至2015年的雷暴观测资料，分析了安溪县雷暴的气候特征及环境背景分类。并根据雷暴活动特征及雷暴天气产生的环境场条件，诊断和分析T639数值模式输出产品与雷暴观测资料的相关性，对41个相关因子做显著性检验，挑选相关性较好的9个因子做分析。对9个预报因子进行0,1化处理并进行逐步回归，最后选取850hPa垂直速度、850hpa假相当位温、700hPa温度、K指数、850hPa比湿等5个因子，建立雷暴潜势预报方程。利用2015年至2017年T639模式资料进行回代分析评估，发现当雷暴概率预报Y值>0.6时，雷暴预报准确率最高，达85.60%，且漏报率、空报率很低。再以2018年T639数值模式资料对雷暴潜势概率进行计算评估，准确率为83.84%，漏报率为5.75%，空报率为10.41%。由此可见，基于T639数值产品的雷暴潜势方程可以为安溪县雷暴天气的预警预报和防雷减灾服务提供客观的参考和依据。     

桃仙机场雷雨转雨夹雪天气的分析

通过对桃仙机场仅有的两次雷雨转雨夹雪天气过程的分析，总结出此类天气的形势特点，并初步得出此类天气预报的着眼点，为秋季飞行提供可靠的预报保障。     

洛阳地区雷暴活动规律和雷灾分析

利用洛阳市及9县10个观测站1966-2005年的雷暴观测资料,统计分析了洛阳地区雷暴活动时空分布特征,结果显示:洛阳地区雷暴时空分布很不均匀,栾川、嵩县、孟津偏多,宜阳、新安、汝阳偏少,南北多中部少;20世纪60年代中期到70年代雷暴日数偏多,80年代至今雷暴日数偏少,但从80年代开始,洛阳地区雷暴日数有缓慢上升的趋势,年际变化幅度大,季节性特点非常明显,集中出现在4-9月,而夏季雷暴日数接近全年的80%。洛阳地区雷击人员伤亡事件主要发生在农村,造成的财产损失主要在市区,近年来雷击次数及所造成的损失呈上升趋势。     

玛纳斯河流域雷暴气候特征及防雷应用

选取玛纳斯河流域中上游和中下游4个气象站1970—2005年的雷暴气候资料进行统计分析,总结出玛纳斯河流域雷暴活动的气候特征,并根据其活动规律提出防御雷电灾害的几项事宜。     

海南省澄迈县雷暴气候特征及其灾害防御

通过统计分析海南省澄迈县1959-2004年逐日雷暴资料,找出雷暴发生时空分布特征,统计1995-2004年10a雷暴发生的影响天气系统,计算出各天气系统影响下雷暴发生的概率。分析结果表明：澄迈县雷暴日46a平均雷暴频次437次,年际变化呈波动减少趋势,5-8月是雷暴发生的高发期,占全年雷暴的53%,16-17时是一天中发生雷暴的最高期,西南方向发生的雷暴略多于其他方向,澄迈县受西南低压槽、南海低压槽和副热带高压等天气系统影响时发生雷暴的概率较大。     

雷暴云电结构与闪电关系初探

利用雷暴云偶极性电结构理论,结合卫星和雷达资料分析了不同荷电结构下地面电场。结果表明:当正电荷中心高度越高、负电荷中心高度越低,形成的地面负电场越大,越有利于地闪的形成;负地闪发生后或云砧下方,地面电场成正极性,易引发正地闪;地闪分布与雷达回波、卫星云图中雷暴云位置基本一致,结合雷达和卫星资料可初步判断正/负地闪发生位置。     

Emerging coral diseases: a temperature‐driven process?

In the last few decades there has been a surge in research focusing on coral disease. While climate change, specifically rising sea surface temperature, has been proposed as a major and growing driver of the emergence of marine diseases, to date a solid connection between disease epizootics and elevated sea surface temperature has not been established. However, a wealth of data now exists, compiled from many different perspectives, that may support such a connection. In this work we provide a comprehensive review targeting one coral disease, black band disease, that spans the infection process, pathobiology, and epizootiology, and links specific mechanisms of the disease process to increasing temperatures. This temperature‐driven pattern of infection can be expanded to include similar processes associated with other temperature‐related coral diseases. The conclusions presented here are based upon the results of many studies using a diverse suite of approaches that have been synthesized to argue that the emergence and continuing spread of black band disease is linked to warming sea surface temperatures. In summary, as global ocean temperatures increase seasonally and over decades, the environment shifts to become more favorable for the growth of potentially pathogenic microorganisms endemic to the immediate environment of the reef. The increase in the relative number of potential pathogens in the microbial community produces microenvironments conducive to the growth of other potential pathogens, leading to infection by a polymicrobial consortium. This consortium is easily perturbed by a (seasonal) temperature decrease, but remains associated with the coral host and can be reactivated with a subsequent seasonal increase in temperature, resulting in a cycle of temperature‐dependent disease emergence.