东亚冬夏季风对热带印度洋秋季海温异常的响应

利用多年的Reynolds月平均海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR全球大气再分析资料,分析了热带印度洋秋季海表温度距平(SSTA)与后期东亚冬夏季风强度变化的关系。结果表明,热带印度洋秋季SSTA的主要模态是全区一致(USB)型和偶极子(IOD)型,USB型模态主要代表热带印度洋秋季SSTA的长期变化趋势,而IOD型模态主要反映热带印度洋秋季SSTA的年际变化。热带印度洋秋季海温气候变率中既存在着明显的ENSO信号,也有独立于ENSO的变率特征,独立于ENSO的热带印度洋秋季SSTA变化的主要模态仍是USB型和IOD型。前期秋季USB模态与东亚冬季风及东亚副热带夏季风之间为负相关关系;与前期正(负)IOD模态相对应,南海夏季风强度偏弱(强),而东亚副热带夏季风强度偏强(弱)。USB型和IOD型模态对后期东亚冬、夏季风强度变化的影响是独立于ENSO的,但ENSO起到了调节二者相关显著程度的作用。     

热带印度洋偶极子发生和演变机制的数值研究

对中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的第三代海洋模式(L30T63 OGCM)进行了改进。分析了该模式1959年1月—1998年12月的40a积分结果，以此研究热带印度洋偶极子发生、发展和消亡的物理机制。对数值模拟结果的分析表明，赤道印度洋表面异常东风引起的异常环流结构是偶极子发生、发展的主要动力学原因，其表面异常东风转换为异常西风所引起的异常环流结构调整是偶极子消亡的主要动力学原因；海气界面热通量异常的交换对热带印度洋海表温度距平偶极子模态的形成和演变起着重要的作用；垂直输送作用是热带印度洋次表层海温偶极子模态发生和演变的主要物理机制。     

Recovery of thermohaline circulation under CO2 stabilization and overshoot scenarios

In this study we examine the behavior of the thermohaline circulation, as simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), for several centuries following CO₂ stabilization for the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios and for an “overshoot” scenario in which CO₂ levels temporarily reach the same level as in the A1B scenario before declining to an ultimate stabilization level that is identical to the B1 case. While we find no evidence for irreversible changes of the thermohaline circulation in the overshoot experiment, the interplay of the different timescales of the temperature response of the surface and interior ocean does lead to a number of differences in the long-term response of the ocean between it and the B1 stabilization scenario where the same GHG levels are approached by different paths. The stronger initial warming and its slow penetration into the deeper ocean, followed by a transient surface cooling in the overshoot scenario leads to lower static stability, deeper mixing, and a more rapid recovery of the thermohaline circulation than in the B1 stabilization scenario. While the overshoot scenario recovers surface conditions (e.g. SST, sea ice extent) very similar to the B1 scenario shortly after reaching the same GHG levels, the additional accumulation of heat in the interior ocean during the period of higher forcing causes the global mean ocean temperature and steric sea level to remain higher than in the B1 stabilization scenario for at least another several centuries.     

A Zonal Pathway for NADW in the South Atlantic

Several large deployments of neutrally buoyant floats took place within the Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) of the South Atlantic in the 1990s and a number of hydrographic sections were occupied as well. Here we use the spatially and temporally averaged velocities measured by these floats, combined with the hydrographic section data and various estimates of regional current transports from moored current meter arrays, to determine the circulation of the three major subthermocline water masses in a zonal strip across the South Atlantic between the latitudes of 19°S and 30°S. We concentrate on this region because the historical literature suggests that it is where the Deep Western Boundary Current containing NADW bifurcates. In support of this notion, we find that a net of about 5 Sv. of the 15–20 Sv that crosses 19°S does continue zonally eastward at least as far as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Once across the ridge it takes a circuit to the north along the ridge flanks before returning to the south in the eastern half of the Angola Basin. The data suggest that the NADW then continues on into the Indian Ocean. This scheme is discussed in the context of distributions of dissolved oxygen, silicate and salinity. In spite of the many float-years of data that were collected in the region a surprising result is that their impact on the computed solutions is quite modest. Although the focus is on the NADW we also discuss the circulation for the AAIW and AABW layers.     

Anomalous change of the Antarctic sea ice and global sea level change

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Circulation and Brackish Water Dispersal in a Coastal Lagoon of Southwest Taiwan

Modest observations and numerical experiments were conducted to investigate circulation and brackish water dispersal in a coastal lagoon southwest of Taiwan. The Chi-Ku Lagoon, partially shielded from the sea by a string of sandbar barriers with two entrances among them, receives modest and episodic runoff from Chi-Ku Stream. Flood and ebb tidal streams entering and leaving the two entrances are found to converge and diverge in a flow stagnation area inside the lagoon. Under weak wind conditions, brackish water is preferentially retained in the flow stagnation area. Besides the observations, scenario runs using a three-dimensional numerical model also indicate strong modulation by monsoon winds. Both summer southwest monsoon and winter northeast monsoon reduce brackish water retention; the latter is found to be more effective. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Numerical study of the summer temperature decrease induced by the enhancement of estuarine circulation in Fukuoka Bay

The Princeton Ocean Model with realistic bottom topography has been used to investigate the summer temperature decrease in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The vertical mixing of the model is expressed by a scheme that effectively includes the influences of interannual variations of tidal currents and wind. The results show that the historical temperature decrease in summer has been caused by tidal currents and wind weakening in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The weakening of tidal currents and wind gives rise to weakening of the vertical mixing, and to enhancement of the estuarine circulation in the bay. The enhancement of the estuarine circulation activates the inflow of open-ocean water toward Fukuoka Bay. Coastal water in summer has therefore tended to be colder and more saline in the past 25 years. This interannual variation in coastal waters is called “open-oceanization” in this study. On the basis of the numerical model, it is anticipated that the temperature will decrease by 0.2°C in the next 25 years in Fukuoka Bay if the tide and wind weaken persistently as in the present bay.     

Sea surface temperature variations in the southwestern South China Sea over the past 160 ka

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the southwestern South China Sea have been reconstructed for the past 160 ka using the Uk37 paleothermometer from the core MD01-2392. The temperature differences between glacial times (MISs 6 and 2) and interglacial times (MISs 5.5 and 1) are 2.2~2.5 ℃. Younger Dryas event during the last deglaciation was documented in both the planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and SST records. After MIS 5.5, SSTs displayed a progressive cooling from 28.6 to 24.5 ℃, culminating at the LGM. During this gradual cooling period, warm events such as MISs 5.3, 5.1 and 3 were also clearly documented. By comparison of SST between the study core and Core 17954, a pattern of low or no meridional SST gradients during the interglacial periods and high meridional SST gradients during the glacial periods was exhibited. This pattern indicates the much stronger East Asian winter monsoon at the glacial than at the interglacial periods. Spectral analysis gives two prominent cycles: 41 and 23 ka, with the former more pronounced, suggesting that SSTs in the southern SCS varied in concert with high-latitude processes through the connection of East Asian winter monsoon.