Crisis, coincidences and strategic market behaviour: the internationalization of Indonesian clothing brand-owners

Despite the fact that most Indonesian brand-owners continue to emphasize their marketing activities in the domestic market, several brand-owners have started to export clothing under their own label. This has been particularly the result of the economic crisis in the late 1990s, which affected companies serving the domestic market. Companies were trying to compensate for the loss of sales on the domestic market by redirecting their marketing activities to foreign countries. This export strategy has been driven largely by the sole aim to survive. However, in addition to these export activities, some companies have rather sophisticated, long-standing business relations to their distributors in overseas markets. This paper explores these export activities in the context of the global commodity chain framework.     

滇东铂钯地球化学勘查及异常评价

利用滇东地区1∶20万水系沉积物化探的组合副样,按8km×8km面积重新组合,采用C-OES法定量分析其Pt、Pd含量,在此基础上圈定了4种主要类型Pt、Pd异常:①与中古元古代昆阳群黑色页岩建造有关的Pt、Pd异常;②与上震旦统—下寒武统黑色页岩建造有关的Pt、Pd异常;③与二叠纪峨眉山玄武岩建造有关的Pt、Pd异常;④与其他沉积建造有关的Pt、Pd异常。并对该地区Pt、Pd地球化学异常进行了评价,为进一步开展Pt、Pd资源评价提供科学依据。     

新疆东天山石英滩金矿流体包裹体地球化学

石英滩金矿地处塔里木板块北缘阿奇山—雅满苏火山弧,容矿围岩为下二叠统阿其克布拉克组陆相火山岩,控矿构造为破火山口环形断裂。流体包裹体特征和温度等参数研究表明石英滩金矿以低温(129℃～236℃)、低盐度(1.91wt%NaCl～2.74wt%NaCl)和浅成(成矿时压力为3×106～32×106Pa,深度小于1km)为特征;流体包裹体稀土元素研究初步得出成矿流体来自中酸性岩浆和火山岩。     

内蒙古东部森林沼泽区1∶20万区域化探工作回顾

通过对内蒙古东部森林沼泽区开展1∶20万区域化探4个不同阶段工作方法技术及效果的回顾和总结,认为在不同时期的工作方法技术随着对森林沼泽区这一特殊景观的认识不断加深,其工作方法技术也在不断改进,发现矿点8处、矿化点17处,其中,银锌矿17处、金矿1处,取得了较好的地球化学勘查成果,所完成图幅较客观地反映了工作区区域构造、成岩成矿作用的表层地球化学面貌,大大提高了地球化学信息的可靠性和真实性。     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…     

Impact of precipitation seasonality changes on isotopic signals in polar ice cores: a multi-model analysis

For Central Greenland, water isotope analysis indicates a temperature difference of about 10°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, borehole thermometry and gas diffusion thermometry indicate that LGM surface temperatures were about 20°C colder than today. Two general circulation model studies have shown that changes in the seasonal precipitation timing in Central Greenland might have caused a warm bias in the LGM water isotope proxy temperatures, and that this bias could explain the difference in the estimated paleotemperatures. Here we present an analysis of a number of atmospheric general circulation model simulations mostly done within the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. The models suggest that the seasonal cycle of precipitation and surface mass balance over Central Greenland at the LGM might have been very different from today. This supports the idea that the accuracy of the water isotope thermometry at the LGM in Greenland might be compromised as a result of a modified surface mass balance seasonality. However, the models disagree on the amplitude and sign of the bias. For Central East Antarctica, a strong seasonality effect on the LGM isotopic signal is not simulated by any of the analyzed models. For the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP) the models suggest relatively weak isotope paleothermometry biases linked to changes in the surface mass balance seasonality over both ice sheets.     

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall

The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr⁻¹ average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region.     

ENSO事件中纬向异常流反向与东西侧边界反射的联系

建立一个中等复杂程度的海-气耦合模式研究东、西边界反射,纬向平流项-u′(δ)(T+T′)/(δ)x在ENSO循环位相转换中的作用及东、西边界反射与纬向异常流(u′) 符号改变的关系.结果得到:u′超前Nio3区SSTA位相转变的原因是东、西边界反射造成的.Sverdrup 平衡时所产生的地转流(ur)与东、西边界反射所产生的地转流(ur)的方向在大部分时间里是相反的,同时ur与风应力强迫之间大约有9个月的滞后时间(Kelvin波从180°E出发经东边界反射产生的Rossby波到达180°E时间).在模式ENSO事件消亡过程中的某一时刻以后,边界反射产生的调整过程变为主要过程,u′主要由ur来决定,这样就造成了u′的反向先于Nio区SSTA的反向.它实际上是海洋的调整过程与风应力强迫之间滞后关系的一种反映.敏感性数值试验表明,取消东边界反射,耦合模式能够模拟ENSO循环,但其周期比控制试验的周期短一年(3年).取消-u′(δ)(T+T′)/(δ)x,耦合模式能够模拟ENSO循环,但其周期比控制试验的周期长2年(6年).