大理州2005年初夏干旱成因探析

大理州2005年初夏出现了严重干旱气象事件.从500pHa高空环流特征、500pHa距平场特征、西太平洋副高特征量及北太平洋中低纬海温距平场、OLR距平场对这次干旱的成因进行了分析,分析结果表明：2005年初夏（4月1日～6月10日）降水异常偏少气温明显偏高是发生干旱的主要原因,高空大气环流异常、西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西、冷空气活动偏北是导致干旱的直接原因;孟加拉湾南部4月OLR场呈明显正距平,抑制低值系统的发展和东北移影响云南,是影响2005年大理初夏干旱重要原因;北太平洋中低纬海温特征与大理州初夏干旱有一定的遥相关性.     

Early diagenesis of nurtrients （C, N, P and Si） stored in sediments of two reservoirs in southwestern China

Damming is a common anthropogenic intervention along the course of rivers, which is defined as ＂artificial-lake effect＂, both in China and across the world. Today as many as 48000 dams and/or reservoirs are in operation in the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） drainage area, and more are being constructed. While damming is well known to affect riverbome nutrient loads, and thus the riverine ecosystems owing to removal of carbon fixation, and removal of particles in reservoir sediments, there is limited information on the detailed early diagenesis of sediments in reservoirs including the regeneration processes of nutrients deposited in sediments and exchange flux across the sediment-water interface, which is important for mass balance of riverbome nutrients. In the present study, two large-size reservoirs, Wujiangdu Reservoir （WJDR） and Dongfeng Reservoir （DFR）, located on the main steam of the Wujiang River and with uniformity hydrography and discrepancy biogeochemical activity （e. g. primary production）, were selected for a comparative study on the detailed processes of nutrient regeneration. Water, pore water and sediment were sampled from these two reservoirs and dissolved organic carbon （DOC）, NH4^＋, NO3^-, PO4^3-, dissolved silica （DSi） in the overlying water and pore water, and total organic matter in sediments were determined. The results of correlation analysis suggested that in these two reservoirs, processes of nutrient regeneration near the sediment-water interface were significantly different. As a result of rapid decomposition of algae-derived ＂labile＂ organic matter in upper sediments, nutrient regeneration processes and upward fluxes in WJDR are dramatically stronger than those of DFR. NH4^＋ upward flux from sediment in WJDR was about 17 times higher than that in DFR. PO4^3- flux in WJDR is about 13 times above that in DFR. DOC flux in WJDR is larger that in DFR by 5 times, and DSi by 1 time.     

Methylmercury and human biomarkers： Questioning the evidence

Methylmercury （MeHg） is a powerful neurotoxicant in humans. In terms of biomarkers of MeHg exposure, hair and blood have long been used in epidemiological studies as the biomarkers of choice. In fact, total hair mercury （Hg） content as well as organic blood Hg concentrations reflects exposure to organic Hg from food consumption. Extensive studies, establishing a constant and linear relation between MeHg intake versus Hg levels in hair and blood, were conducted by governmental officials to establish guidelines on safe levels of MeHg exposure, which were translated into threshold daily fish consumption rates （usually expressed as μg MeHg per kg bodyweight）. Nowadays, in most epidemiologic studies blood or hair mercury （Hg） level is commonly used as a valid proxy to estimate human exposure to methylmercury （MeHg） through fish consumption without relating this signal to actual fish consumption patterns among populations. Human variability in mercury toxicokinetics was identified and measurement error has been pointed out to be a substantial contributor to observed variability, particularly where dietary information is retrospective and self-reported. However, experimental evidence indicates that significant variability among individuals may exist in the biokinetics of mercury. Also recent findings from previous population-based studies through COMERN initiative also revealed that MeHg metabolic processes might greatly vary across populations. In fact, it is unlikely that the magnitude of the difference measured between observed and expected levels of mercury, given the reported intake, can be entirely explained by laboratory measurement errors or reporting bias.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

南海西南部曾母盆地早中新世以来沉降史分析

采用回剥法和局部均衡模式研究曾母盆地早中新世以来的沉降史，并探讨了该盆地构造演化特征。曾母盆地自早中新世以来经历了17．5-11．6Ma、11．6-5．5Ma、5．5-3．0Ma和3．0-0Ma的4次快速沉降作用，其构造演化受控于曾母地块与南沙地块及婆罗洲地块的碰撞和盆地两侧的万安-卢帕尔断裂与廷贾走滑断裂的综合作用，可划分为南北双向挤压（晚始新世-早中新世）、走滑改造（中中新世-晚中新世）和区域沉降（上新世-第四纪）3个演化阶段。     

2001年全球重大气候事件概述

全球气候仍持续偏暖。亚洲大部出现异常冷冬，许多地区遇到数十年未见的风雪严寒；美国冬季也连续遭受暴风雪袭击。东亚、南亚、中亚有西亚发生了大范围的持久干旱，南亚、东南亚夏季暴雨频繁，造成严重洪涝灾害。欧洲、非洲及南美洲的许多国家和地区降水异常偏多，导致不同程度的洪水，俄罗斯西伯利亚地区发生百年不遇的大洪水。北大西洋飓风较常年显著偏多，西北太平洋台风也给沿海地区带来严重灾害。     

地下水水质预警信息系统研究

地下水水质预警是对地下水水质现状及变化趋势适时给出相应给别警戒信息的方法，包括状态预警和趋势预警两部分。以GIS技术为核心，将水质预警模型与GIS技术相结合，建立了地下水水质预警信息系统。并以吉林省西部平原地区地下水水质为例，研究了该区地下水水质恶化地区的分布、趋势、恶化预警等级及其成因。地下水水质预警系统为地下水资源管理，减少地下水水质恶化的风险提供了科学依据。     

用翁氏模型图版设计早期油气田(藏)开发方案

由于缺乏早期资料，设计早期油气田（藏）开发方案是非常困难的。在制作翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版和ER-ctR图版过程提出根据探明储量No、经济极限产量Qc、假定达到峰值产量的时间tm、最终采收率ER，由翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版求取增长指数b，由翁氏模型ER-ctR图版求取ctR，再求出其他参数及所有的油气田（藏）开发指标，完成早期油气田（藏）开发方案设计。     

Small-Mammal Data on Early and Middle Holocene Climates and Biotic Communities in the Bonneville Basin, USA

Archaeological investigations in Camels Back Cave, western Utah, recovered a series of small-mammal bone assemblages from stratified deposits dating between ca. 12,000 and 500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The cave's early Holocene fauna includes a number of species adapted to montane or mesic habitats containing grasses and/or sagebrush (e.g., Lepus townsendii, Marmota flaviventris, Reithrodontomys megalotis, and Brachylagus idahoensis) which suggest that the region was relatively cool and moist until after 8800 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Between ca. 8600 and 8100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. these mammals became locally extinct, taxonomic diversity declined, and there was an increase in species well-adapted to xeric, low-elevation habitats, including ground squirrels, Lepus californicus and Neotoma lepida. The early small-mammal record from Camels Back Cave is similar to the 11,300–6000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. mammalian sequence from Homestead Cave, northwestern Utah, and provides corroborative data on Bonneville Basin paleoenvironments and mammalian responses to middle Holocene desertification.     

山东省胶莱盆地东北缘宋家沟金矿地质特征及其成因初探

山东省宋家沟金矿位于胶莱盆地东北缘 ,产于莱阳群林寺山组断裂破碎带中。牟—即断裂带为切割莱阳群的断裂 ,对金矿起控制作用。早白垩纪晚期的火山—岩浆活动为深部含金热液的运移提供了通道 ,并在其有利的构造部位沉淀成矿。稀土元素特征和氧、硫同位素特征亦说明宋家沟金矿的物质来源以深源为主 (幔源及下地壳中的金 ) ,是早白垩世晚期的火山—岩浆活动作用的结果。