中天山坡地冰缘地貌的若干问题

由 1985—1989年野外调查结果和定位重复观测资料可知,本区坡地冰缘地貌的分布特征为:1.各类坡地冰缘形态彼此具有成因联系;2.不同序次的冰缘地貌类型具有各自的时空分异;3.不同的坡地冰缘地貌类型在一定条件下可有所转化。再则,本区风化以寒冻剥裂和寒冻楔入为主,呈现在时空和状态上为不可逆过程的耗散结构。     

城市多灾种早期联合预警GIS系统的设计与应用

阐述了城市或区域范围内早期预警协作和预警联合发布的必要性,以及系统的具体设计思路,包括当前城市灾害预警应用现状分析,城市预警数据管理、系统应用设计,系统应用创新三个方面,最终通过城市预警信息融合和共享,来应对解决宽泛而又错综复杂的各类城市灾害问题,拓展应急协作工作的信息广度,提升公众防范的精细化服务水平。     

保定地区雷电分布特征及短时预警模型分析

根据保定市近2002—2011年18个地面观测站的雷暴日资料,分析研究了保定市雷电活动的时空分布特点。在此基础上利用保定市11部大气电场监测仪组网实时监测数据,找出电场幅值和上升率两个预警因子确定预警阈值,建立保定雷电短时预警模型。通过对36个雷电样本进行检验：提前30分钟预警的准确率达到60%,前20分钟达到74%,提前10分钟达到88%。结果表明,随着时间临近其预警准确率明显提高,对雷电短时预警具有很好的参考价值。     

2007/2008年冬季雨雪冰冻灾害的副热带高压环流背景与变异特征

基于NCEP/NCAR提供的1958—2008年逐日再分析资料,对2007/2008年冬季我国雨雪冰冻灾害期间副高指数特征与El Nino/La Nina年平均冬半年副高指数特征以及50a平均冬半年副高指数特征进行对比分析。采用交叉小波和小波相干分析方法,进一步分析了它们之间的相关性和异同性以及对大气环流的影响,揭示了2007/2008年我国南方雨雪冰冻灾害期间副热带高压活动与环流变异特性的一些基本特征,如La Nina事件冬季(尤其是中等强度La Nina事件年份的冬季),副高通常比一般年份副高的平均位置偏北。     

青海省近45年霜冻变化特征及其对主要作物的影响

利用青海省22个地面气象站1961-2005年霜冻气候资料及日最低气温资料,对东部农业区、柴达木盆地等地的霜冻气候变化特征以及对主要作物的影响进行研究。结果表明：45年来,青海省大部分地区早（秋）霜冻初日推迟,晚（春）霜冻终日提前,无霜冻期延长。东部农业区霜冻初日推迟、终日提前的趋势最为明显,柴达木盆地次之,祁连山地区和青南高原霜冻初日推迟趋势较明显,而终日提前趋势不明显;大部分地区重霜冻频数减少,强度减弱,春霜冻期低温强度变化趋势较秋霜冻期明显;气候变暖使早霜冻危害减轻,晚霜冻危害加重。     

早稻产量综合动态预报方法研究

利用湖南省早稻产量与发育期、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水量和日日照时数等资料及早稻生理气象指标,在丰歉气象影响指数动态预报方法的基础上,引进早稻生育期内对产量有较大影响的关键气象因子,建立了早稻产量综合动态预报方法.结果表明,该方法在早稻产量增减趋势预报和定量预报上,正(准)确率都有所提高.     

冬小麦晚霜冻害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析

冬小麦晚霜冻害主要发生在中国的黄淮区域,河南占黄淮区域面积较大,是中国小麦的主要产地,又是晚霜冻害的重发区,因此文章以河南为例,从构成晚霜冻害的最低温度和小麦发育期两个因素出发,提出了晚霜冻害指数构建方法,使晚霜冻害指标定量化,并从多年数据库中计算出逐年晚霜冻害发生强度和发生天数.由于小麦发育期观测资料序列较短,影响了大尺度小麦晚霜冻害变化规律的分析,因而提出了冬小麦发育期资料推算方法;对计算出的近50年晚霜冻害资料进行EOF分析和Morlet小波分析,以发现晚霜冻害的时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律.结果表明:冬小麦晚霜冻害发生频率较高,高发区频率超过40%,且在20世纪70-90年代有增多的趋势;发生强度和天数变化趋势基本相似,具有发生强度较重区对应着发生天数较多区的趋势,且前者对小麦产量的影响大于后者;晚霜冻害发生强度的重发区分布在豫东南和豫西南,轻发区主要分布在淮河以南及豫西部分地区,其中第1模态分布型存在16年、第2模态分布型存在准2年的多时间尺度变化规律;发生天数的多发区主要分布在豫北北部和豫西南边界,少发区在豫东北及豫西南中部,其中第1模态分布型存在着准4年、第2模态分布型存在准3年和准6-7年的周期.     

Signals from the epoch of cosmological recombination – Karl Schwarzschild Award Lecture 2008

The physical ingredients to describe the epoch of cosmological recombination are amazingly simple and well‐understood. This fact allows us to take into account a very large variety of physical processes, still finding potentially measurable consequences for the energy spectrum and temperature anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). In this contribution we provide a short historical overview in connection with the cosmological recombination epoch and its connection to the CMB. Also we highlight some of the detailed physics that were studied over the past few years in the context of the cosmological recombination of hydrogen and helium. The impact of these considerations is two‐fold: (i) The associated release of photons during this epoch leads to interesting and unique deviations of the CosmicMicrowave Background (CMB) energy spectrum from a perfect blackbody, which, in particular at decimeter wavelength and the Wien part of the CMB spectrum, may become observable in the near future. Despite the fact that the abundance of helium is rather small, it still contributes a sizeable amount of photons to the full recombination spectrum, leading to additional distinct spectral features. Observing the spectral distortions from the epochs of hydrogen and helium recombination, in principle would provide an additional way to determine some of the key parameters of the Universe (e.g. the specific entropy, the CMB monopole temperature and the pre‐stellar abundance of helium). Also it permits us to confront our detailed understanding of the recombination process with direct observational evidence. In this contribution we illustrate how the theoretical spectral template of the cosmological recombination spectrum may be utilized for this purpose. We also show that because hydrogen and helium recombine at very different epochs it is possible to address questions related to the thermal history of our Universe. In particular the cosmological recombination radiation may allow us to distinguish between Compton y ‐distortions that were created by energy release before or after the recombination of the Universe finished. (ii) With the advent of high precision CMB data, e.g. as will be available using the PLANCK Surveyor or CMBPOL, a very accurate theoretical understanding of the ionization history of the Universe becomes necessary for the interpretation of the CMB temperature and polarization anisotropies. Here we show that the uncertainty in the ionization history due to several processes, which until now were not taken in to account in the standard recombination code RECFAST, reaches the percent level. In particular He II → He I recombination occurs significantly faster because of the presence of a tiny fraction of neutral hydrogen at z ∼ 2400. Also recently it was demonstrated that in the case of H I Lyman α photons the timedependence of the emission process and the asymmetry between the emission and absorption profile cannot be ignored. However, it is indeed surprising how inert the cosmological recombination history is even at percent‐level accuracy. Observing the cosmological recombination spectrum should in principle allow us to directly check this conclusion, which until now is purely theoretical. Also it may allow to reconstruct the ionization history using observational data (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

New magnetic field measurements of β Cephei stars and slowly pulsating B stars

We present the results of the continuation of our magnetic survey with FORS 1 at the VLT of a sample of B‐type stars consisting of confirmed or candidate β Cephei stars and Slowly Pulsating B (hereafter SPB) stars, along with a small number of normal B‐type stars. A weak mean longitudinal magnetic field of the order of a few hundred Gauss was detected in three β Cephei stars and two stars suspected to be β Cephei stars, in five SPB stars and eight stars suspected to be SPB stars. Additionally, a longitudinal magnetic field at a level larger than 3σ has been diagnosed in two normal B‐type stars, the nitrogen‐rich early B‐type star HD 52089 and in the B5 IV star HD 153716. Roughly one third of β Cephei stars have detected magnetic fields: Out of 13 β Cephei stars studied to date with FORS 1, four stars possess weak magnetic fields, and out of the sample of six suspected β Cephei stars two show a weak magnetic field. The fraction of magnetic SPBs and candidate SPBs is found to be higher: Roughly half of the 34 SPB stars have been found to be magnetic and among the 16 candidate SPBs eight stars possess magnetic fields. In an attempt to understand why only a fraction of pulsating stars exhibit magnetic fields, we studied the position of magnetic and non‐magnetic pulsating stars in the H‐R diagram. We find that their domains in the H‐R diagram largely overlap, and no clear picture emerges as to the possible evolution of the magnetic field across the main sequence. It is possible that stronger fields tend to be found in stars with lower pulsating frequencies and smaller pulsating amplitudes. A somewhat similar trend is found if we consider a correlation between the field strength and the v sin i ‐values, i.e. stronger magnetic fields tend to be found in more slowly rotating stars (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)