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61.
本文分析了部分地震学指标的物理意义。通过对华东地区1970年以来14个指标的全时间扫描,并使用华东地区Ms≥5.0地震进行对应,结果表明,选取Rm值、b值和AC值进行同步异常分析,能显著提高华东地区的有震报震率,但有漏报。对目前华东地区异常集中区(南黄海及其沿岸地区)进行时间扫描,结果显示该异常集中区未出现同步异常,认为该区域短期内发生中强地震的可能性不大。 相似文献
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63.
太阳X_EUV成像望远镜用来监测和预报影响空间天气变化的太阳活动,专门服务于空间天气预报研究. 望远镜工作在4~100?的X射线波段和195?极紫外谱段,视场角45′,角度分辨5″,提供全日面、高分辨的成像观测. 文中分析了太阳X、EUV波段的成像观测应用,介绍了X_EUV望远镜的基本设计,分析了望远镜对不同温度日冕等离子体的敏感性、对不同太阳活动现象的响应及反演日冕等离子体参数过滤片的组合利用. 太阳X_EUV成像望远镜集成了掠入射望远镜和正入射望远镜两套系统,扩展了单一X射线望远镜的成像功能,能够观测更多的太阳爆发先兆现象或者伴生现象,是目前国际上同类仪器中最新的太阳成像监测仪器. 相似文献
64.
J. Venkata Ratnam D. R. Sikka Akshara Kaginalkar Amit Kesarkar N. Jyothi Sudipta Banerjee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1641-1665
As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season
of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made
using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature
(SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre
for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten
years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms
of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day),
the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99%
of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value
in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble
mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad. 相似文献
65.
This study presents a 44-year climatology of potential vorticity (PV) streamers in the Northern Hemisphere based upon analyses of the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. A comparison to an existing 15-year climatology yields very good agreement in the locations of PV streamer frequency maxima, but some differences are found in the amplitude of frequencies. The climatology is assessed with the focus on links between PV streamer frequencies and the synoptic- and planetary-scale variability of the dynamical tropopause.
A comprehensive overview is provided on where (zonally) and when (seasonally) short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia.
The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific. 相似文献
A comprehensive overview is provided on where (zonally) and when (seasonally) short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia.
The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific. 相似文献
66.
曲靖烤烟气候分析及产量年景趋势预测 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
烤烟因其商品率高、经济效益高,是一种特殊的叶用经济作物,它以“适产优质”为栽培目标而区别于其它收果实作物,是曲靖市的支柱产业,地方财税的主要来源。利用烤烟产量、气候资料进行相关分析,探明气候要素在烤烟生育期内的变化对产量的形成和影响。其中3月平均最高气温、6月平均气温、6~8月积温、6~7月日照、5~9月干燥度、6~7月干燥度、夏季干旱等对产量形成呈正效应,3月降水量、6月降水量、盛夏洪涝呈负效应。利用关键时段气候要素变化对产量的影响进行判别分析预测烤烟年景趋势,此方法用于1997~2003年曲靖烤烟单产趋势预测,除1997年趋势预测错误外,其余6年全部预测正确。 相似文献
67.
68.
Simulation and Projection of Changes in Rainy Season Precipitation over China Using the WRF Model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to investigate potential future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century. 相似文献
69.
70.
利用T106数值预报产品作江西暴雨动态落区预报 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
首先将江西测站的降水插值到1°×1°的经纬度网格点上,然后利用1°×1°的T106数值预报产品,对江西网格点上的暴雨送行诊断分析与相关普查,最后建立了江西暴雨动态落区预报模式和动态落区预报流程。 相似文献