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181.
对推进地震预测、预报工作的一些政策问题的讨论 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
推进地震预测、预报不能只是地震局工作的改进,国家对待地震预测、预报的工作必须有一个政策的调整。当前地震预测预报工作基本上沿用气象工作的模式,但地震预报和气象预报的水平完全不在一个水平上。地震预测预报工作要把科学研究放到首位,在地震工作的管理体制、财政体制方面都应有一个大的调整。 相似文献
182.
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184.
在Hamilton型拟变分原理体系下,建立了一种时间子域以三次和五次B样条函数插值的时间子域法,并将这种新方法用于单锚腿系泊系统的动力响应分析中。算例表明,新方法比传统的动力计算方法Wilson-θ法,在计算精度上有明显的优势,表明本方法能够用于计算单锚腿系泊系统的动力响应。 相似文献
185.
186.
成都地区雷暴的天气气候特征 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
利用1986~2000年成都地区的雷暴资料,分析得到:成都地区的多年平均雷暴日数在2430之间,属雷暴较多的地区之一。季节性显著,冬季无雷暴,盛夏雷暴日数占全年雷暴日数的2/3左右。地域性强,大城市的热岛效应对雷暴的发生有促进作用。雷暴天气过程的分析为作好雷暴发生时空域预报提供了好的思路。 相似文献
187.
Özgür Kişi 《水文研究》2009,23(14):2081-2092
This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
188.
Geostatistical estimation techniques were customized to allow forecasting of production figures at the Silver Bell uranium mine (Uravan District).Surface drill hole data were used to provide a block model of kriged estimators of average uranium grades. Figures for recoverable ore grade and the ore-waste ratio are then deduced from regressive curves previously obtained from underground information and production data. Cross-validations of the entire model were performed and were found positive. 相似文献
189.
本文扼要介绍了中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站对外开放三年来,在泥石流观测试验研究和防灾减灾工作中的新进展,同时也简述了站设基金课题、国家基金课题和中外合作交流项目的进展情况,并对今后的观测研究工作提出了展望和建议。 相似文献
190.
K.?E.?PapadakisEmail author C.?L.?Goudas G.?A.?Katsiaris 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,295(3):375-396
The general solution of the Henon–Heiles system is approximated inside a domain of the (x, C) of initial conditions (C is the energy constant). The method applied is that described by Poincaré as ‘the only “crack” permitting penetration into
the non-integrable problems’ and involves calculation of a dense set of families of periodic solutions that covers the solution
space of the problem. In the case of the Henon–Heiles potential we calculated the families of periodic solutions that re-enter
after 1–108 oscillations. The density of the set of such families is defined by a pre-assigned parameter ε (Poincaré parameter),
which ascertains that at least one periodic solution is computed and available within a distance ε from any point of the domain
(x, C) for which the approximate general solution computed. The approximate general solution presented here corresponds to ε =
0.07. The same solution is further improved by “zooming” into four square sub-domain of (x, C), i.e. by computing sufficient number of families that reduce the density parameter to ε = 0.003. Further zooming to reduce
the density parameter, say to ε = 10−6, or even smaller, although easily performable in both areas occupied by stable as well as unstable solutions, was found unnecessary.
The stability of all members of each and all families computed was calculated and presented in this paper for both the large
solution domain and for the sub-domains. The correspondence between areas of the approximate general solution occupied by
stable periodic solutions and Poincaré sections with well-aligned section points and also correspondence between areas occupied
by unstable solutions and Poincaré sections with randomly scattered section points is shown by calculating such sections.
All calculations were performed using the Runge-Kutta (R-K) 8th order direct integration method and the large output received,
consisting of many thousands of families is saved as “Atlas of the General Solution of the Henon–Heiles Problem,” including
their stability and is available at request. It is concluded that approximation of the general solution of this system is
straightforward and that the chaotic character of its Poincaré sections imposes no limitations or difficulties. 相似文献