淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究

应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架，即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度，研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明，概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值，特别当预报不确定度较大时，概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。     

Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用

Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法，将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报，取得了较为理想的成果。预测试验的结果表明，该预测模型有较高计算精度，尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测；对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测，在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后，亦可获到较为理想的预测结果。可以认为，该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求，Local Modeling方法的应用，将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径。     

基于通量均衡基准的地壳垂直形变场分析模型

根据全球通量均衡假说建立了地壳垂直形变场的分析模型，在球面近似下求得了该模型的球谐函数级数解并拟合了两个不同区域的地壳垂直形变场，编绘了等值线图，继而在密切平面坐标系下导出了该模型的Fourier级数解。结果表明，该方法不仅具有几何意义，而且具有一定的地球动力学意义。     

2004年陕西春季沙尘天气环流特征分析

应用我们已经建立的《阳泉市短期冰雹预报系统》分析预报阳泉市2004年6月份出现的连续冰雹天气,特别是该系统中的指标叠加方法,效果较好。     

2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。     

Cause of winter gravity wave spectrum saturation

Gravity waves play a significant role in establishing the large-scale circulation and structure of the middle atmosphere. Through gravity wave saturation proc-esses, such motions are believed to cause turbulence, resulting in divergence of momentum flux and the diffusion of heat and constituents in the meso-sphere[1,2]. The mechanisms that contribute signifi-cantly to the gravity wave saturation are thought to be the dynamical and convective instabilities[3]. However, it is difficult to distin…     

指数平滑技术在斜坡位移预测中的应用

应用趋势型数据指数平滑模型预测了链子崖危岩体监测点GA的位移量.根据其观测数据呈线性趋势的特点,选取趋势型二次指数平滑的线性预测公式和合适的平滑常数值进行了计算预测.预测结果表明位移预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明该模型可很好地应用于斜坡变形位移的预测.     

Numerical simulation of percussive drilling

This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model for moisture and heat flow in fractured unsaturated porous media

The present study investigates propagation of a cohesive crack in non‐isothermal unsaturated porous medium under mode I conditions. Basic points of skeleton deformation, moisture, and heat transfer for unsaturated porous medium are presented. Boundary conditions on the crack surface that consist of mechanical interaction of the crack and the porous medium, water, and heat flows through the crack are taken into consideration. For spatial discretization, the extended finite element method is used. This method uses enriched shape functions in addition to ordinary shape functions for approximation of displacement, pressure, and temperature fields. The Heaviside step function and the distance function are exploited as enrichment functions for representing the crack surfaces displacement and the discontinuous vertical gradients of the pressure and temperature fields along the crack, respectively. For temporal discretization, backward finite difference scheme is applied. Problems solved from the literature show the validity of the model as well as the dependency of structural response on the material properties and loading. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.