Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Geodynamic setting,structure, and composition of continuous trachybasalt-trachyandesite-rhyolite series in the north of Altai-Sayan area: the role of crust-mantle interaction in continental magma formation

The geologic positions and geochemical and isotope parameters of the Ordovician-early Silurian and Early-Middle Devonian continuous volcanic series of the Minusa basin and its mountainous framing are compared. Both series are composed mostly of moderately alkaline rocks with variations in SiO₂ contents from 45 to 77 wt.%. The Ordovician-early Silurian series differs from the Early-Middle Devonian one in lower contents of TiO₂ (< 1.7 wt.%) and Fe₂O_3tot and higher contents of Al₂O₃ in all rock varieties and in the more fractionated REE patterns of trachybasalts. The compositions of both series reflect two simultaneous mechanisms of magma evolution. The main process was fractional crystallization leading to the formation of rocks from trachybasalts to trachyrhyodacites. The accessory mechanism was the contamination of fractionated melts by crustal material, anatectic melting of crust, and mixing of deep-seated magmas with crustal melts. These processes had specifics at each stage and were controlled by the composition of the sources of parental melts. Their geochemical and isotopic parameters (high alkalinity, high contents of lithophile elements, negative anomalies of Nb, Ta, and Ti, and enrichment in radiogenic Sr) point to the interaction of mantle plumes with the lithospheric mantle that was metasomatically transformed during the preceding Vendian-early Cambrian subduction processes.     

Carbon and Noble Gas Isotopes in the Tengchong Volcanic Geothermal Area, Yunnan, Southwestern China

Carbon and noble gas isotope analyses are reported for bubbling gas samples from the Tengchong volcanic geothermal area near the Indo-Eurasian suture zone. All samples contain a resolvable component of mantle-derived 3He. Occurrence of mantle-derived 3He coincides with surface volcanism. However, 3He occurs over a larger geographic areathan do surface volcanics. δ13C values for CO2 and CH4 vary from -33.4‰ to 1.6 ‰ and from -52.8‰ to -2.8‰, respectively. He and C isotope systematics indicate that CO2 and CH4 in the CO2-rich gases originated predominantly from magmatic component mixed with crustal CO2 produced from carbonate. However, breakdown of organic matter and near-surface processes accounts for the CH4 and CO2 in N2-rich gases. 3He/4He ratio distribution pattern suggests that mantle-derived He and heat sources of high-temperature system in central Tengchong originate from a hidden magma reservoir at subsurface. CO2-rich gases with the highest 3He/4He ratio (5.2 Ra) may be representative of the     

鄂温克旗干旱、洪涝灾害期评定及预测方法

根据鄂温克旗1959—2008年气象历史资料,统一归类,并采用统计预报方法,简要评定预测出鄂温克旗50年来主要气象灾害之一的干旱、洪涝灾害期,为鄂温克旗防范旱涝灾害做参考。     

冀北—辽西早白垩世沉积有机质特征与古气候环境演变

本文对冀北—辽西地区早白垩世沉积盆地富有机质沉积岩进行了初步有机地球化学分析研究。结果显示,冀北—辽西沉积盆沉积有机质特征在时间和空间上存在很大差异,代表白垩系早期沉积的滦平盆地大北沟组有机质丰度低,这不仅显示其所代表的沉积相带不利于有机质的聚集,也反映了当时生物不够繁盛;大店子组时期沉积相带发生了变化,有机质类型随着发生了变化,丰度有所增高,但总体上显示环境条件不利于生物的发育和繁盛。到了桥头组和义县组沉积岩有机质丰度大幅升高,表明生物界非常繁盛,古气候环境有利于有机质的大量生成和堆积,总体上反映了温湿的气候条件;但同时也存在较为频繁或交替性寒冷气候波动,具体的古气候环境状态尚需进一步深入研究。     

新型矿井多波多分量地震反射波观测系统的设计

针对DTC-150防爆地质超前探测仪在工程应用中存在的几个问题,提出了研制新型矿井多波多分量地震反射波观测系统的必要性.通过对大量工程预测预报资料的分析,结合煤岩有效地震波频率特性等4个关键技术的研究,得出了煤岩有效地震波频率范围和观测系统的有效布设方式,研制了高速、高精度、多通道数据采集及处理系统,给出了掌子面绕射回波形成的探测盲区和巷道声波的处理方法,提出了掌子面绕射回波与直达波不重叠的条件.新型矿井多波多分量地震反射波观测系统的研制成功为矿井提供了更为准确、更长距离的超前预测预报手段,同时也为煤矿安全生产提供了有力的保证.     

The environmental planning and management approach towards the development and management of the Osun natural spring project,Ibadan, Nigeria

There is a general shortage of potable water in Nigeria, partly through the lack of natural provision and partly because of rapid urban growth that has largely been unplanned. The paper describes the recent redevelopment of a public water facility in a run-down area of Ibadan which is part of the Sustainable Ibadan Project. Despite funding from national and international bodies, the development is strongly based at community level. The local inhabitants feel they have control over their own water supply through their representatives on the various planning and managing committees. This aims to reduce vandalism and to increase pride and involvement in the community. The project is a pilot for other projects around Ibadan, some of which have begun and others are being planned. This paper describes the administrative structures and management principles that have been employed. It forcefully advocates community-based planning and management which respects both the environment and the water-users, and involves a major “bottom-up” element. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

塔河油田碎屑岩油气运聚模拟及潜力区优选

为了系统研究塔河油田碎屑岩油气运聚过程,针对研究区目的层的地质特征,文章采用流径和逾渗综合方法进行油气运聚模拟分析。该方法基于断裂-砂体输导格架来开展油气运聚模拟,首先通过断层的分级、分期研究,结合实际资料形成了断层开启性判别标准,进而建立断层输导格架模型;综合使用压实曲线和孔渗关系,利用相控建模技术建立砂体输导格架模型。在断裂-砂体输导格架基础上开展了油气运聚模拟,模拟结果与现有的油气藏吻合较好,表明流径与逾渗综合法是一种模拟研究区目的层油气运聚过程的有效方法。同时,利用模拟结果,明确了主要目的层的潜力区域,对研究区碎屑岩的勘探部署有重要意义和实际价值。      

长江中下游六省大气甲烷柱浓度时空分布

甲烷(CH₄)是造成气候变暖的主要温室气体之一。为了了解长江中下游水稻种植区CH₄浓度的分布情况,本次研究基于温室气体观测卫星(greenhousegasesobservingsatellite,GOSAT)和大气红外探测仪(atmospheric infraredsounder,AIRS)卫星反演的数据产品,对我国长江中下游六省大气CH₄柱浓度的时空分布特征进行了研究。研究结果表明,由GOSAT反演的长江中下游六省大气CH₄浓度呈逐年增长趋势,其年均浓度由2011年的1817×10^-9增长至2018年的1875×10^-9,高于东三省、华北平原和全国平均水平。区域平均年增长量为8.2×10^-9 a^-1。各省年际增长幅度略有差异,纬度偏低的江西、湖南和浙江三省大气CH₄浓度高且增长量偏大,纬度偏高的湖北、安徽和江苏三省大气CH₄浓度略低且增长量偏小。长江中下游六省大气CH...