The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.     

南北地震带应力场演变的数值模拟研究

应用有限元方法,考虑主要地质构造情况,就粘弹介质状态下南北地震带及其相邻区域的应力场时空演变过程进行了数值模拟研究．计算了10万零10年累积载荷作用下模型的应力场演变,发现在周边板块不断推挤作用下,当整个南北带的应力松弛趋于稳定后,带上应力场的总体扰动大小取决于印度-澳大利亚板块、菲律宾板块和太平洋板块的共同作用．南北地震带上呈现出的“地震南北呼应”现象,就是区域应力场达到平衡态后,整个南北带对外载荷(板块边界力)作用的总体反应．     

四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究

本文在简要总结了计算单自由度系统地震反应频域方法和时域方法的特点之后,按照统一的递归公式,系统地对计算单自由度体系的四种时域方法即中心差分方法、Newmark方法、Z变换方法、Duhamel逐步积分法进行了对比研究。通过递归系数b1和b2的不变性、传递函数的低频约束条件和相位特性以及数值分析等几个方面说明了上述方法各自的优缺点、相对精度和适用的范围。根据动力平衡方程的算子不变性,研究了上述方法的共性特征,揭示了相对位移、相对速度、相对加速度递归公式的内在联系,这表明只要知道相对位移的递归公式,相对速度、相对加速度的递归公式也就随之确定,在此基础上推荐了一套计算单自由度系统相对位移、相对速度、相对加速度地震反应的递归公式。     

Kinetic study of the hydrocarbon generation from Upper Paleozoic coals in Ordos Basin

When organic matter during geological processes is affected by a variety of factors such as paleotemperature, and time, complicated chemical reactions will occur, finally resulting in the generation of petroleum and natural gas. These reactions leading to…     

Dynamic stress concentration and scattering of SH-wave by interface elliptic cylindrical cavity

In this paper, the dynamic stress concentration and scattering of SH-waves by bi-naterial structures that possess an interface elliptic cavity are investigated. First, by using the complex function method, the Green‘s function is constructed. This yields the solution of the displacement field for an elastic half space with a semi-elliptic canyon impacted by an anti-plane harmonic line source loading on the horizontal surface. Then, the problem is divided into an upper and lower half space along the horizontal interface, regarded as a harmony model. In order to satisfythe integral continuity condition,the unknown anti-plane forces are applied to the interface. The integral equations with unknown forces can be established through the continuity condition, and after transformation, the algebraic equations are solved numerically. Finally, the distribution of the dynamic stress concentration factor (DSCF) around the elliptic cavity is given and the effect of different parameters on DSCF is discussed.     

塔里木与扬子新元古代热-构造事件特征、序列和时代——扬子与塔里木连接(YZ-TAR)假设

淄博市大武水源地是中国北方罕见的特大型岩溶-裂隙地下水水源地,地下水开采量为52×10~4m~3/d。为了对岩溶地下水进行有效监测,需要建立最优的地下水监测网。文中在对岩溶地下水流系统分析的基础上,建立了地下水流系统确定性-随机性数学模型,运用有限元与卡尔曼滤波耦合的模拟递推算法,对大武水源地地下水监测网进行了优化设计,结果显示:现有地下水位动态监测网难以达到监测目标,最优地下水位监测网由14个监测井,每月监测一次的监测频率组成,比现有地下水位监测网减少了2个监测井。     

区域人地系统的优化调控与可持续发展

区域人地系统的优化调控始终是现代地理学的重要任务,也是市场经济条件下中国实施可持续发展战略的理论基石。文章认为,区域人地系统优化调控的对象结构应从PRED系统改进为P_DR_DE_DE_DE_DS_D系统,人地系统优化调控的切入点与重点应坚持“以人为本”,而调控的重中之重应是人的意识建设,优化调控的目标点是追求和谐发展至上的目标。人地系统优化调控的动态机理在于模拟“人圈”与“地圈”的最佳距离,优化调控的空间结构包括核心区、发生区、支持区和作用区,各功能区相互竞争的结果形成区域定位与空间共生。协调优化和调控区域人地系统,不仅包括人地系统各要素之间以及各要素内部发展的动态协调与优化,而且包括区域之间人地系统的空间协调和优化,只有同时实现了区域之间人地系统的产业组织协调和空间组织协调,消除了区域盲目竞争与区域冲突,才能实现人地系统经济社会行为对空间区位的合理占据,才能真正实现区域之间的协调发展和空间共生。     

长江三峡库区(奉节-巴东段)移民工程遥感动态监测

在长江三峡库区移民工程中 ,我们采用 ETM+、SPOT、IKONOS等多源、多时相、多分辨率航天、航空遥感数据组合 ,监测移民工程的动态变化 ,通过对库区奉节 -巴东段移民搬迁建与安置、新开发用地分布、土地利用与土地结构变化、地质灾害及衍生地质灾害与防治、库区环境及生态平衡与改善经济结构以及移民工程遥感动态监测等 ,取得突破性进展 ,获取了一批重要成果。为三峡移民工程进一步全面、安全地实施、改进规划管理工作及库区经济可持续发展 ,提供了科学依据和决策性建议。     

Hydraulic Effects of Shales in Fluvial-Deltaic Deposits: Ground-Penetrating Radar, Outcrop Observations, Geostatistics, and Three-Dimensional Flow Modeling for the Ferron Sandstone, Utah

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys, outcrop measurements, and cores provide a high-resolution 3D geologic model to investigate the hydraulic effects of shales in marine-influenced lower delta-plain distributary channel deposits within the Cretaceous-age Ferron Sandstone at Corbula Gulch in central Utah, USA. Shale statistics are computed from outcrop observations. Although slight anisotropy was observed in mean length and variogram ranges parallel and perpendicular to pale of low , the anisotropy is not statistically significant and the estimated mean length is 5.4 m. Truncated Gaussian simulation was used to create maps of shales that are placed on variably dipping stratigraphic surfaces interpreted from high-resolution 3D GPR surveys, outcrop interpretations, and boreholes. Sandstone permeability is estimated from radar responses calibrated to permeability measurements from core samples. Experimentally designed flow simulations examine the effects of variogram range, shale coverage fraction, and trends in shale coverage on predicted upscaled permeability, breakthrough time, and sweep efficiency. Approximately 1500 flow simulations examine three different geologic models, flow in the 3 coordinate directions, 16 geostatistical parameter combinations, and 10 realizations for each model. ANOVA and response models computed from the flow simulations demonstrate that shales decrease sweep, recovery, and permeability, especially in the vertical direction. The effect on horizontal flow is smaller. Flow predictions for ideal tracer displacements at Corbula Gulch are sensitive to shale-coverage fraction, but are relatively insensitive to twofold variations in variogram range or to vertical trends in shale coverage. Although the hydraulic effects of shale are statistically significant, the changes in flow responses rarely exceed 20%. As a result, it may be reasonable to use simple models when incorporating analogous shales into models of reservoirs or aquifers.     

"96.1"高原暴雪过程三维条件性对称不稳定的数值研究

利用“96．1”青藏高原东北部暴雪过程的较成功的中尺度模拟的输出资料,用非纬向非平行基流中的对称不稳定模式,对“96．1”暴雪发生发展过程的动力学机制进行了三维基流中二维非线性对称不稳定数值模拟试验。结果表明,ψ场和ω场的三维配置与切变线的演变过程相当一致,说明用三维基流中二维非线性对称不稳定可能能较好地描述SI在切变线东伸南移过程中所起的作用。