利用中期地震活动异常综合预测地震危险区

在分析了首都圈地区（３８．５°～４１°Ｎ，１１３°～１２０°Ｅ）中强以上地震前地震活动特征的基础上，总结出了本区中强以上地震前地震活动的普遍性特征，应用孕震模型对地震活动异常进行综合分析，给出了应用地震活动异常进行地震预报的物理基础。文中还提出了应用中期地震活动异常进行预报的综合判别指标，当其达到给定阈值时，再考虑地质构造、中强以上地震发生的自然概率、大震后的减震作用、中期地震活动异常的分布及其预报效能等因素，给出二维的综合概率分布图，把概率值较高的地区作为未来一、二年中强以上地震的危险区。此外还进行了震级、时间预测方面的研究。     

信息量直接计算法在甘肃－宁夏－青海地区前兆标志体系研究中的应用

本文提出了异常前兆信息量的直接计算法，实现了各种观测资料前兆异常的无量纲前兆信息量转换。用该方法对甘、宁、青地区５种观测手段共９２个测项的５日均值一阶差分相关异常进行了前兆信息量计算。通过２４次５级以上相关地震的回顾性分析研究，求得了９２个测项的有效单位异常平均信息量，为前兆标志体系的进一步研究打下了良好的基础。又通过７次７级以上相关地震前兆信息量变化特征的统计，给出了一组预报地震三要素参考指标。     

滇西地震的短临综合预报决策研究

本文在短临预报指标研究的基础上，综合考虑各指标在综合预报中的作用，并用层次分析法计算出了参与滇西地震综合预测的各指标的综合权重值，最后进行系统合成，从而对滇西地区的地震的发震时间、地点进行定量化的预测，而对强度预测，而在发震时间预测的前提下，综合考虑指标异常出现的项次及持继时间长短（孕报期的长短），来综合判定预测强度。所得结果，通过１９７５年以来滇西地区２３次Ｍｓ≥５．０级地震检验，时间预测对应率     

我国现行抗震设计规范中场地评定方法的比较和评述

目前，我国抗震设计规范中采用的场地评定方法主要有两种：一是建筑抗震设计规范（ＧＢＪ１１－８９）采用的场地分类的方法，一是构筑物抗震设计规范（ＧＢ５０１９１－９３）和电力设施抗震设计规范采用的场地指数法。前者是把场地影响按照场地分类指标划分成若干场地类别，因此，确定的地震荷载是不连续的，跳跃变化的。后者是一种以模糊推论的综合评判方法导出的场地指数为指标进行连续评定的新方法，在这种方法里，场地性质的差     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

世界森林的数字地球监测

介绍中国风云气象卫星FY－1,FY－2对地观测数据应用于全球森林资源的分类监测。讨论中国加入WTO以后对全球森林资源再分配的新战略。以全球观点,分析贵州省的森林资源特色及其对世界的特殊贡献。评价21世纪中国森林数据库与林业管理信息系统的规划与建设。     

世界森林的数字地球监测

介绍中国风云气象卫星FY－1,FY－2对地观测数据应用于全球森林资源的分类监测。讨论中国加入WTO以后对全球森林资源再分配的新战略。以全球观点,分析贵州省的森林资源特色及其对世界的特殊贡献。评价21世纪中国森林数据库与林业管理信息系统的规划与建设。     

Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.     

物元可拓法在地下水水质评价中的应用

可以从定性、定量两个角度解决问题的物元可拓法已被广泛应用于各个领域,本文对物元可拓法进行了改进,并应用于地下水水质评价,同时采用模糊综合评判方法进行了验证。Piper-三线图显示,研究区地下水主要为HCO3—Na和HCO3—Ca·Na型水,水质本底条件较好。水质评价结果表明,上第三系馆陶组地下水水质显著优于明化镇组,1984~1999年间明化镇组和馆陶组的地下水水质均有变坏趋势,前者趋势较为明显。物元可拓法采用综合关联度与可拓指数判断地下水水质级别,不仅能反映其相对性,也能反映绝对性,可延拓连续的特点使其更有说服力。