Modelling palaeosol preservation in aeolian dunes

In some of the world's desert and desert‐marginal areas (e.g. Simpson/Strzelecki, Australia) dunefields preserve well‐developed palaeosols, whereas in other regions with broadly similar climatic regimes and topography (e.g. southwest Kalahari), the dunes are characterized by very poorly developed internal stratigraphy. It has been postulated that dunes such as those in the Kalahari may never have had conditions conducive to soil formation, or that soils once formed but any evidence of palaeosols has been lost due to reworking. This study develops and applies a one‐dimensional numerical model to simulate dune development, soil formation and soil preservation. Variables in the model allowed experimentation on the influence of sediment supply, the time taken for soil to form, and the additional resistance to erosion offered by the soil. Reduced sediment supply plays a vital role in landscape development during periods of initial pedogenesis. Although re‐exhumed palaeosols influence sediment supply, the effect is minimal. Although under almost all parameterized conditions more than half (and up to 80‐90%) of those soils initially formed are lost due to reworking, evidence of their past formation remains in the large majority of profiles, and the dominant factor in controlling the preservation of palaeosols is the frequency of their formation. The implication is that where dunes are found without palaeosols, the most likely (albeit not certain) inference is that they have never formed. Counter‐intuitively, the limited sediment supply means their additional resistance to erosion becomes almost inconsequential to their preservation, at least until the unit approaches complete invulnerability. Short chronostratigraphic hiatuses around palaeosols are normal, and although long gaps can occur, they are extremely infrequent. Where such gaps are observed in field studies, external forcing factors (e.g. climatic or environmental changes) are implied, as they are highly unlikely to result from stochastic net preservation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of an operational rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis

Abstract

Automatic raingauge data often serve as an important input to hydrological and weather warning operations. They are not only fundamental in quantitative rainfall analysis, but also act as the ground truth in warning operation and forecast validation. Quality control is required before the data can be used quantitatively due to systematic and random errors. Extremely large random errors and unreasonably small or false zero values can hamper effective monitoring of heavy rain. Yet both are difficult to detect in real-time by objective means. In an attempt to address these problems, a rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis was developed. The important threshold values required in the data quality control of 60-min raingauge rainfall were determined from a detailed analysis of the distributions of rainfall residuals defined as the arithmetic difference and the logarithm of the ratio between a raingauge measurement and its co-kriging estimate. The scheme has been developed and is in real-time use in Hong Kong, a coastal city of about 1100 km² area with more than 150 raingauges installed. Geographically, it is located in the subtropics and dominated by heavy convective rainfall in the summer. As a basis of the quality-control scheme, the co-kriging rainfall analysis was shown through a verification exercise to be superior to those obtained by the Barnes analysis and ordinary kriging of raingauge data. The performance of the quality-control algorithm was assessed using selected cases and controlled tests, and was found to be satisfactory, with a high error detection rate for the two targeted types of error. Limitations and operational issues identified during a real-time trial of the quality-control scheme are also discussed.

Citation Yeung, H.Y., Man, C., Chan, S.T., and Seed, A., 2014. Development of an operational rainfall data quality-control scheme based on radar-raingauge co-kriging analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1285–1299. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.839873     

土层分层参数不确定时对二维工程场址地震动影响分析

工程场地地震安全性评价中计算二维复杂场地地震反应分析时,如采用一维等效线性化分析模型会带来较大的误差,而直接采用二维的非线性模型在技术上还存在一定的困难和不合理性。目前工程中多采用对一维分析结果进行二维修正的思想给出设计地震动及反应谱。然而在建立二维分析模型时,由于勘测条件的限制使模型建立出现很多不确定性。基于以往提出的二维复杂工程场址设计地震动的修正分析思想,建立了几种可能且工程认可的二维复杂场地模型,主要研究不同分层特征模型及土层剪切波速这一物理参数不确定时对设计地震动的影响,进一步考虑不同场地类别下,不同二维分层模型及土体物理参数对地震动的影响。根据分析结果提出了不同类别场地下,方便且合理建立二维复杂场地地震动分析模型的方法,为实际工程中模型的建立及参数的选取提供一些参考。     

泉州盆地地震效应特征的一维等效线性和二维非线性分析的比较

采用等效线性动粘弹性模型描述土的动力非线性特性,基于一维等效线性波传法,对泉州盆地地震效应进行了分析;同时,采用修正Martin-Seed-Davidenkov动粘弹塑性模型描述土的动力非线性特性,对泉州盆地非线性地震效应进行了大尺度二维精细化有限元分析,研究了地形地貌和土层横向不均匀性对地震效应的影响。将两种分析结果进行对比,结果表明：①随着基岩输入地震动强度增大,地表峰值加速度PGA放大效应总体呈现减小趋势,中震与小震、大震与小震的地表PGA放大系数之比依次为0.83~0.99、0.72~0.97;②该盆地Ⅲ类场地处,基岩、地表起伏不大,且土层横向分布较均匀,两种方法计算得到的地震效应特征类似;基岩或地表起伏剧烈、土层横向分布明显不均匀的Ⅱ类场地上,二维非线性分析给出的地表PGA放大系数明显大于一维等效线性结果,两种方法得到的地表加速度反应谱及PGA随土层深度的变化特征存在显著差异,二维非线性分析给出的地表加速度反应谱大多呈现双峰甚至多峰现象,且PGA在土层特定深度处存在聚集效应,使PGA随土层深度的变化呈现非单调性。     

双源CT评估糖尿病与冠脉斑块相关性的价值研究

目的：利用双源CT（DSCT）血管成像技术探讨糖尿病与冠状动脉粥样硬化斑块形成之间的相关性。材料与方法：收集本院2013年4月到2014年8月接受DSCT冠状动脉造影检查的病例,以调查问卷作为分组依据,筛选出糖尿病组（n=300）和非糖尿病组（对照组n=300）,其中糖尿病组根据病程的长短又分为2组：1组,糖尿病病程≤5年,共180例;2组,病程〉5年共120例。观察并比较两组患者斑块的发生率、分布特点、狭窄程度及斑块类型。结果：病变累及血管支数及范围比较。糖尿病组冠脉3支血管病变发生率为27.5%,非糖尿病组为20.6%;糖尿病组弥漫性病变发生率为43.8%,非糖尿病组为17.4%,两组比较差异均有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。狭窄程度比较：糖尿病组重度狭窄、完全闭塞的比例分别为7.9%、4.8%;非糖尿病组分别为3.7%、1.9%,糖尿病组狭窄程度较非糖尿病组增高,两组比较差异有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。糖尿病2组重度狭窄、完全闭塞的比例分别为12.2%、7.8%,1组分别为0.93%、0%,两组之间差异有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。斑块性质比较：糖尿病组混合斑块的发生率为51.4%,非糖尿病组为38.9%,而非钙化斑块的发生率,糖尿病组为43.8%,非糖尿病组为53.7%,两组比较差异均有统计学意义（P〈0.05）;糖尿病2组混合斑块的发生率为63.3%,1组为31.5%,两组比较差异亦有统计学意义。结论：DSCT冠状动脉造影能够准确评价糖尿病与冠脉斑块之间的关系。糖尿病患者冠脉斑块累及范围更广、管腔狭窄更严重、混合斑块发生率更高,并处于更易发生心血管事件的高危状态,随着病程的延长而加剧。     

拟建哈—佳铁路工程地震安评抗断参数研究——以依兰-伊通断裂为例

在对依兰-伊通断裂通河段晚第四纪活动参数获取的基础上,对该断裂的几何学特征和晚第四纪活动特征及有关拟建铁路地震安全的设防参数进行了探讨.研究结果表明,依兰-伊通断裂通河段总体走向N30-40°E,由3条断层组成,中支最新活动时代为全新世.该断裂未来发生7级地震时的水平位移量可能达2.2m左右,垂直位错量约为1.1m左右.该断裂全新世以来的活动性质表现为右旋走滑为主,兼具逆冲活动.根据探槽结果和野外地震地质调查得出断裂垂直位错约（1.0±0.2）m,右旋位错量约为（2.7±0.1）m,（1730-30）aB.P.以来的垂直滑动速率和水平滑动速率分别约为（0.57±0.11）mrn/a和（1.57±0.06）mm/a.未来100年内若遭遇地震,其最大水平位错量约2.87m,垂直位错值为1.04m.断层影响带宽度约为8m.该研究结果为拟建哈—佳铁路工程可能遭受的断层影响和抗震设防提供了一定的数据基础,也为地震安评中线状工程的抗断评价问题提供了一定的参考.     

Optimization Research of Water-Soil Resources in Huanghua

According to the present situation and problems of land use in Huanghua, this article determines the objectives of optimal allocation of land resources. As the basis of gray linear programming approach, we create gray linear programming model and set decision variables. By constructing the objective function and collection of constraint equations in which the main constraints is water resources, we obtain the program of optimal allocation of land resources under different constraints of water resources. The optimal result is analyzed to the present situation and planning of land use, to study feasibility of the program and the effectiveness in the decision of sustainable use of water -soil resources     

Statistical prediction of heavy rain in South Korea

1. Introduction In recent decades, extreme weather events seem to be growing in frequency and risk due to water-related disasters. According to the World Meteorological Or- ganization report (ISDR and WMO, 2004) on World Water Day, 22 March 2004, the economic losses caused by water-related disasters, including floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, are on an increasing trend as follows: the yearly mean in the 1970s was about 131 billion US dollars, 204 billion dollars in the 1980s, and …     

A model for retrieval of dual linear polarization radar fields from model simulation outputs

An algorithm for retrieving polarimetric variables from numerical model fields is developed. By using this technique, radar reflectivity at horizontal polarization~ differential reflectivity, specific differential phase shift and correlation coefficients between the horizontal and vertical polarization signals at zero lag can be derived from rain, snow and hail contents of numerical model outputs. Effects of environmental temperature and the melting process on polarimetric variables are considered in the algorithm. The algorithm is applied to the Advanced Regional Prediction System （ARPS） model simulation results for a hail storm. The spatial distributions of the derived parameters are reasonable when compared with observational knowledge. This work provides a forward model for assimilation of dual linear polarization radar data into a mesoscale model.     

一次蒙古冷涡影响下宁夏强对流天气分析

2004年6月14、15日连续2 d宁夏大部地区出现了强雷阵雨天气,引黄灌区局部地区遭受冰雹袭击。利用常规气象资料、多普勒雷达产品等资料,对此次过程进行了天气学分析,分析表明这是一次典型的蒙古冷涡旋转东移南压造成的宁夏连续性强对流天气过程。并根据一般性雷雨与伴有冰雹的强雷雨天气发生时雷达回波的差异,统计得到宁夏发生强对流性天气的监测预警指标,同时利用宁夏中尺度区域模式MM5预报产品对其相关物理量进行了模拟分析,得到了有价值的结果。