CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE ONSET OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AS REVEALED BY HIRS-Tb12 AND DROUGHT AND FLOODS IN EASTERN CHINA

As shown in comparison and study of the HIRS-Tb12 data and conventional data, temperature, humidity and vertical motion are structured differently in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which are well depicted with the HIRS-Tb12 data. When high pressures rapidly decrease over the regions of South China Sea and Arabian Sea with the HIRS-Tb12 less than 200 W/m2, monsoons will set off in the South China Sea, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, respectively. From a year of significant drought to one of significant floods, the trend of evolution is significantly different in the downdraft areas of the subtropical highs between the two hemispheres.     

Implications of the relationship between catchment vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff

The impact of changing catchment vegetation type on mean annual runoff has been known for some time, however, the impact on the variability of annual runoff has been established only recently. Differences in annual actual evapotranspiration between vegetation types and the potential effect of changing vegetation type on mean annual runoff and the variability of annual runoff are briefly reviewed. The magnitude of any change in the variability of annual runoff owing to a change in catchment vegetation type is related to the pre‐ and post‐change vegetation types and the seasonality of precipitation, assuming that the variability of annual precipitation remains constant throughout. Significant implications of the relationship between vegetation type and the variability of annual runoff are presented and discussed for water resource management, stream ecology and fluvial geomorphology. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Drought in Bulgaria and atmospheric synoptic conditions over Europe

Drought in Bulgaria is analyzed from the multiple viewpoints of statistical occurrence, spatial patterns, and synoptic conditions. A new index of drought, the SD (spatial-dryness) index, characterizes drought by both intensity and spatial extent. The occurrence of the SD index is analyzed using global gridded data sets. Examination of transitional probabilities of multiple months and years with drought occurrence suggests persistence is sufficiently frequent to be important for climate-related environmental planning. Finally, it is shown that specific seasonal synoptic patterns are associated with wet and dry conditions in Bulgaria. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial and temporal variability of pore‐water pressures in residual soil slopes in a tropical climate

It is critical to understand and quantify the temporal and spatial variability in hillslope hydrological data in order to advance hillslope hydrological studies, evaluate distributed parameter hydrological models, analyse variability in hydrological response of slopes and design efficient field data sampling networks. The spatial and temporal variability of field‐measured pore‐water pressures in three residual soil slopes in Singapore was investigated using geostatistical methods. Parameters of the semivariograms, namely the range, sill and nugget effect, revealed interesting insights into the spatial structure of the temporal situation of pore‐water pressures in the slopes. While informative, mean estimates have been shown to be inadequate for modelling purposes, indicator semivariograms together with mean prediction by kriging provide a better form of model input. Results also indicate that significant temporal and spatial variability in pore‐water pressures exists in the slope profile and thereby induces variability in hydrological response of the slope. Spatial and temporal variability in pore‐water pressure decreases with increasing soil depth. The variability decreases during wet conditions as the slope approaches near saturation and the variability increases with high matric suction development following rainfall periods. Variability in pore‐water pressures is greatest at shallow depths and near the slope crest and is strongly influenced by the combined action of microclimate, vegetation and soil properties. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining ordination techniques and geostatistics to determine the patterns of diatom distributions at Lake Lama, Central Siberia

The patterns of spatial variation of diatom assemblages from surface sediments in Lake Lama were quantified using a combined approach of ordination and geostatistics. The aims were (i) to estimate the amount of variation between diatom assemblages within the lake, (ii) to model the spatial variability of the diatom assemblages and their diversity, and (iii) to map the diatom distributions in the lake. A correspondence analysis (CA) separated the diatom assemblages into a planktonic and a periphytic group. Rheophilic taxa were found within the periphytic group. Variogram analysis showed that only the sample scores of the first CA axis and the Shannon diversity index were spatially structured. The range of spatial correlation was estimated to be 55 km for both variables. The diversity and, to a lesser extent, the sample scores had considerable small-scale variability of about 20 and 3%, respectively. Estimates of the first component of the CA and the Shannon index were derived using block-kriging. The maps of the estimates provided a basis for partitioning Lake Lama according to the spatial structures into an eastern and a western basin, a north–south connection between the basins, and a north–south directed tip at the far eastern end. It was shown that variation in diatom assemblages is mainly spatially structured at the catchment scale and that there is a considerable amount of variation at smaller scales. According to the modeled spatial distribution, the assemblages are most likely affected by the lake size, morphology, and the water and nutrient input introduced by rivers. This has to be taken into account when paleolimnological interpretations are drawn from records of complex lake systems like Lake Lama.     

Water wars in the Middle East: a looming threat

This paper explains how hydropolitical dynamics and spatial variables almost triggered a water war between Israel and Lebanon because the latter was building a pump on the Wazzani Spring, a tributary of the Jordan River. The convergence of a regional drought, history of violent confrontations between the two riparians, distrust, varying development needs and territorial disputes almost culminated in a war between these east Mediterranean neighbours. While most international water disputes in the Middle East will be resolved peacefully, some are likely to trigger violent confrontations threatening political stability in the Middle East in the next few decades.     

Impact of climate change and variability on water resources in Heihe River Basin

Studies indicate that the climate has experienced a dramatic change in the Heihe River Basin with scope of temperature rise reaching 0.5-1.1oC in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, precipitation increased 18.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 6.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, water resources decreased 2.6×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 0.4×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990. These changes have exerted a greater effect on the local environment and socio-economy, and also made the condition worsening in water resources utilizations in the Heihe Rver Basin.     

吉林省水旱灾害规律分析

水旱灾害在自然灾害中占有重大比重，对人类危害极大，正确认识水旱灾害发生的规律与特点，对防治与减轻自然灾害有着重要作用。对吉林省水旱灾害的危害及其发生规律和特点进行了分析。     

Scaling effects on modeled surface energy-balance components using the NOAH-OSU land surface model

As surface exchange processes are highly non-linear and heterogeneous in space and time, it is important to know the appropriate scale for the reasonable prediction of these exchange processes. For example, the explicit representation of surface variability has been vital in predicting mesoscale weather events such as late-afternoon thunderstorms initiated by latent heat exchanges in mid-latitude regions of the continental United States. This study was undertaken to examine the effects of different spatial scales of input data on modeled fluxes, so as to better understand the resolution needed for accurate modeling. A statistical procedure was followed to select two cells from the Southern Great Plains 1997 hydrology experiment region, each 20 km×20 km, representing the most homogeneous and the most heterogeneous surface conditions (based on soil and vegetation) within the study region. The NOAH-OSU (Oregon State University) Land Surface Model (LSM) was employed to estimate surface energy fluxes. Three scales of study (200 m, 2 and 20 km) were considered in order to investigate the impacts of the aggregation of input data, especially soil and vegetation inputs, on the model output. Model results of net radiation and latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes were compared for the three scales. For the heterogeneous area, the model output at the 20-km resolution showed some differences when compared with the 200-m and 2-km resolutions. This was more pronounced in latent heat (12% decrease), sensible heat (22% increase), and ground heat flux (44% increase) estimation than in net radiation. The scaling effects were much less for the relatively homogeneous land area with 5% increase in sensible heat and 4% decrease in ground heat flux estimation. All of the model outputs for the 2- and 20-km resolutions were in close agreement. The results suggested that, for this study region, soils and vegetation input resolution of about 2 km should be chosen for realistic modeling of surface exchange processes. This resolution was sufficient to capture the effects of sub-grid scale heterogeneity, while avoiding the data and computational difficulties associated with higher spatial resolutions.     

Inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges accounting for spatial variability of ground motion,site effects and soil–structure interaction phenomena. Part 1: Methodology and analytical tools

During strong ground motion it is expected that extended structures (such as bridges) are subjected to excitation that varies along their longitudinal axis in terms of arrival time, amplitude and frequency content, a fact primarily attributed to the wave passage effect, the loss of coherency and the role of local site conditions. Furthermore, the foundation interacts with the soil and the superstructure, thus significantly affecting the dynamic response of the bridge. A general methodology is therefore set up and implemented into a computer code for deriving sets of appropriately modified time histories and spring–dashpot coefficients at each support of a bridge with account for spatial variability, local site conditions and soil–foundation–superstructure interaction, for the purposes of inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges. In order to validate the methodology and code developed, each stage of the proposed procedure is verified using recorded data, finite‐element analyses, alternative computer programs, previous research studies, and closed‐form solutions wherever available. The results establish an adequate degree of confidence in the use of the proposed methodology and code in further parametric analyses and seismic design. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.