气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。     

Mineralogy and geochemical behaviour during weathering of greenstone belt under tropical dry conditions in the extreme North Cameroon (Central Africa)

Mineralogy, major, trace and rare earth elements of a weathering profile developed on tertiary greenstone belt in the extreme North Cameroon are reported. The aim of which was to investigate mineralogical evolution and element mobilization and redistribution during weathering under dry tropical climate. The weathering profile consists of four main horizons: (1) a spheroidal weathering zone constituted by a corestone–shell complex, (2) a C horizon, (3) a Bw horizon and an Ah horizon. The results indicate that nontronite, a Fe-rich smectite, is the exclusive clay mineral formed in the exfoliated shells and the C horizon. It is associated with kaolinite in the upper horizons. The coexistence of these two clay minerals induced a decrease of CEC and pH which becomes neutral. The weathering index (WI) values reveal that weathering becomes more and more intensive from the corestone up to Bw horizon, which is the most weathered horizon in the weathering profile. Mass balance calculations, using Th as immobile element, indicate that Ti is quite mobile and that Al and Fe are relatively enriched at the bottom and strongly leached at the top of the profile. Alkalis and alkaline earth elements are strong leached through out the profile, except Ca which displays similar trend as Al and Fe. The same goes for LILE (Cs, Sr), TTE (Cr, Co, Ni) and HSFE (Y, Nb, Hf). In opposite, REE are depleted at the bottom and enriched in the upper horizons, with more enrichment for LREE than for HREE. It appears that weathering of greenstone belt causes a fractionation of HREE and induces a concentration of LREEs. Ce and Eu anomalies display opposite behaviour.     

北大西洋秋季“三极子”海温结构对冬季大气环流场的影响

利用NCEP再分析资料、Hadley中心的海表面温度(SST)资料等,从北大西洋秋季海表面温度异常(SSTA)变化入手,对其影响后期冬季大气环流场的机制进行了分析。研究结果如下:(1)北大西洋SST异常与大气环流异常之间存在着相互作用;(2)秋季北大西洋SSTA具有较好的持续性,"正负正"海温异常空间分布导致12月巴伦支海上空500hPa位势高度异常偏高;(3)异常环流形势对应的海表面风异常场(SSWA)通过阶段性风-蒸发-SST异常反馈机制(WES机制)利于海温异常分布的持续及对上空异常大气环流的反馈;(4)三极子海温结构中负异常海温自10月份开始有自西向东的移动,风作用下蒸发加大,伴随上升运动自欧洲西部爱尔兰群岛出现自西向东移动的降水正异常区,潜热释放有利于冬季巴伦支海上空的异常高压脊发展。研究表明,北大西洋秋季SSTA通过阶段性海气相互作用机制影响海洋温度分布和大气环流异常,对后期冬季中国东北部的气候变化产生影响。     

Anthropogenic impacts on the water and salt budgets of St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa

Lake St Lucia in South Africa is part of a UNESCO World Heritage site and a Ramsar wetland of international importance. Like many coastal wetlands worldwide, anthropogenic activities including catchment land-use changes, water diversions/abstractions, and manipulation of the mouth state have significantly affected its functioning over the past century. Questions concerning its sustainability have motivated a re-evaluation of management decisions made in the past and of options for the future. A model for the water and salt budgets has therefore been used to investigate “what if” scenarios in terms of past anthropogenic interventions. In particular, simulations allow us to evaluate the effects of diverting the Mfolozi river from St Lucia on the functioning of the system and on the occurrence of various water level/salinity states that drive the biological functioning of the ecosystem. In the past, when the St Lucia estuary and the Mfolozi river had a combined inlet, the mouth was predominantly open. The lake had relatively stable water levels but variable salinities that increased during dry conditions due to evaporative losses and saltwater inflows from the sea. If the mouth closed, the Mfolozi flow was diverted into the lake which reduced salinities and maintained or increased water levels. Simulations indicate that without a link to the Mfolozi the lake system would naturally have a mainly closed inlet with lower average salinities but more variable water levels. During dry conditions water levels would reduce and result in desiccation of large areas of the lake as has recently occurred. We conclude that the artificial separation of the St Lucia and Mfolozi inlets underpins the most significant impacts on the water & salt budget of the lake and that its reversal is key to the sustainability of the system.     

近期长江口-杭州湾邻近海域沉积物粒径的时空变化及其影响因素

为了研究长江口-杭州湾外近海沉积物粒径的现状和近期变化,于2008年4月在该区域用箱式取样器取得了33个表层样,用震动活塞采样器取得7个柱状样;在室内用激光粒度仪对沉积物样品进行了粒度分析并与历史时期的研究成果进行对比。结果表明,1）表层沉积物总体上呈东粗（砂）西细（泥）的特点,粒径总体上的空间格局与历史时期相似;但砂-泥区界线在研究区北部（长江口和杭州湾外）有向西迁移（蚀退）迹象（西移10~30 km）,而在南部（舟山群岛以南）则出现明显向东迁移（淤进）现象（最大超过50 km）。2）当前的表层沉积物形成一条南北连续的泥质带（粒径向南逐渐变细）,反映过去存在于舟山群岛以东的最细组分（“黏土”）带不连续现象在表层现已趋于消失。3）表层沉积物粒径趋势分析揭示长江入海泥沙的运移方向主要是向南-东南。4）泥质区柱状沉积物具有粉砂和黏土为主但在垂向上（反映在时间上）有粗细多变的特点（侵蚀区表层沉积物有粗化迹象）。研究认为,长江口-杭州湾邻近海域现代沉积物对流域和沿海重大人类活动有较敏感的响应。     

Global climatic change – the latest scientific understanding

IPCCs statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this detection statement is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the detection statement from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described.     

几种统计预测方法对1998年南京降水的跨季节预测试验及分析

对1998年南京降水分别设计并开展了求和自回归滑动平均（Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA）模型预测、经验模态分解（Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD）预测和基于Hilbert变换（HilbertTransformation,HT）的幅频分离预测等3种跨季节统计预测试验。结果表明：ARIMA模型预测结果存在明显的系统性误差且对夏季的降水突变现象预测困难;EMD分解预测的结果虽在降水演变趋势上有明显提高,但仍未能预测出夏季的强降水突变现象,究其原因可能是对高频分量预测效果不好所致;而基于Hilbert变换的幅频分离预测方法能够对各模态分量的瞬时频率和瞬时振幅实施隔离预测,消除两者的相互影响,显著改善高频模态的预测效果,使得最终预测结果最为理想,不仅具有最高的趋势相关性和最小的偏差,而且还较好地预测出了夏季两次强降水过程。不仅如此,在对2003年的降水预测验证中,基于Hilbert变换的幅频分离预测方法同样具有最好的预测效果,表明该方法预测效果较为稳定,为改进跨季节短期气候统计预测技术提供了一个新思路。     

陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户气候变化的适应行为及影响因素分析

从农户个体微观视角,研究农业的活动主体--农户的气候变化适应行为。选择陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区,采用问卷调查和半结构式访谈相结合的方法研究农户气候变化感知与适应行为,运用二元逻辑回归模型分析影响该地区农户适应行为的因素。结果表明：农户对气候变化趋势感知比较一致,认为近5 年夏季和冬季气温升高,降水减少,但与实际观测存在一定偏差。农户应对气候变化采取适应行为的比重并不高,只有57.8% 的农户表示采取了相应的措施来应对气候变化。农户适应行为受气候变化感知的影响,此外,家庭社会经济属性对农户采取适应行为的概率影响显著,而性别、年龄、文化程度等人口属性因素与农户采取适应行为的概率关系不大。     

State of the climate in the Three Gorges Region of the Yangtze River basin in 2020

2020年,长江三峡地区年平均气温17.2℃,接近常年;年平均降水量1530.8毫米,偏多29％,为1961年以来第二多,仅次于1998年.6月,7月降水量及年平均暴雨日数均为1961年以来第二多.平均风速较常年偏大;相对湿度略偏高;各月均无酸雨出现,近十余年酸雨强度呈现明显减弱趋势.2020年,三峡地区夏季暴雨洪涝灾...     

印度季风的年际变化与高原夏季旱涝

根据NCEP／NCAR再分析资料和海表面温度距平资料,分析了西藏高原夏季降水5个多、少雨年春、夏季印度洋850hPa、200hPa合成风场和合成海温场,发现多、少雨年前期与同期印度洋高、低空风场和海温场均存在明显差异,主要表现为高原夏季降水偏多(少)年印度夏季风偏强(弱),在850hPa合成风场上印度半岛维持西(东)风距平,西印度洋—东非沿岸为南(北)风距平,夏季阿拉伯海区和孟加拉湾出现反气旋(气旋)距平环流;200hPa合成风场上印度半岛维持东(西)风距平,南亚高压偏强(弱),索马里沿岸为南(北)风距平。印度夏季风异常与夏季印度洋海温距平的纬向分布型有密切联系。当夏季海温场出现西冷(暖)东暖(冷)的分布型时,季风偏强(弱),高原降水普遍偏多(少)。相关分析指出,索马里赤道海区的风场异常与高原夏季降水的关系最为密切,在此基础上我们定义了一个索马里急流越赤道气流指数,用它识别高原夏季旱涝的能力较之目前普遍使用的印度季风指数有了明显的提高。