Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Drought in Bulgaria and atmospheric synoptic conditions over Europe

Drought in Bulgaria is analyzed from the multiple viewpoints of statistical occurrence, spatial patterns, and synoptic conditions. A new index of drought, the SD (spatial-dryness) index, characterizes drought by both intensity and spatial extent. The occurrence of the SD index is analyzed using global gridded data sets. Examination of transitional probabilities of multiple months and years with drought occurrence suggests persistence is sufficiently frequent to be important for climate-related environmental planning. Finally, it is shown that specific seasonal synoptic patterns are associated with wet and dry conditions in Bulgaria. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Une méthode de quantification de la dégradation d'un escarpement de faille au cours des cycles climatiques du Quaternaire : la faille de Jobourg (Nord Cotentin,France)Quantification of a fault-scarp degradation through Quaternary: the Jobourg fault (North Cotentin,France)

The degradation of the Jobourg fault-scarp occurred by cryoclastic processes in a periglacial environment during a part of Quaternary time. An attempt of quantification indicates a bulk scarp erosion of about 39 m³ m^?2, while the head accumulated at the bottom of the fault scarp only represents 4.6 m³ m^?2. To cite this article: M. Font et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 171–178.     

Counting chronology and climate records with about 1000 annual layers of a Holocene stalagmite from the Water Cave in Liaoning Province, China

One active stalagmite from the Water Cave in Liaoning Province contains growth layers of three sizes. Based on thermal ionization mass spectrometry 230Th dating, we found that middle size layers are annual layers, with each middle layer consisting of one narrow dark layer and a wide bright layer. The small layers within middle layers are sub-annual layers and the large layers are multi-year layers. Based on the layer-counting method, we established a high-resolution time scale for layer thickness. Our results reveal two dramatic century-scale climate cycles over the past 1000 years in this region.     

Reconstruction of the climate in the Tianmu Mountain area, Zhejiang Province, in the last 160 years by ? 13C sequence of tree ring α-cellulose

Based on cross-dating tree rings from the Tianmu Mountain, Zhejiang Province, the tree rings α-cellulose δ 13C time series was measured. By spectrum analysis, the variation of tree-ring δ13C sequence shows a quasi periodicity of 4.4 years, which is coincident with the standard cycle of El Nino. After removing the long-term decrease trend of the δ13C variation related to atmospheric CO2 concentration, the response of the δ13C to climate elements was analyzed using meteorology data from a nearby weather station. The results suggest that there is a distinct relativity between high-frequency variation of tree ring δ 13C series and seasonal climate parameters, e.g. Temperature and precipitation, with a significant time-lag effect. In addition, the high frequency also reflects the strength change of the East Asian Monsoon. The multiple regression method was employed to reconstruct the historical climate, and to analyze the climate change and trend in the last 160 years in the northern Zhejiang Province.     

MODIFIED MASS FLUX CUMULUS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT—PART Ⅰ:MASS FLUX SCHEME AND ITS SIMULATION OF THE 1991 FLOOD EVENT*

Based on the existing cumulus convective parameterization schemes,a mass flux scheme (MFS) for cumulus convective parameterization has been successfully developed by reference to the work of Chen et al. (1996).The MFS is a comprehensive scheme.In MFS,not only the importance of the large-scale moisture convergence is taken into account,but also it includes the cumulus updrafts and downdrafts,cumulus-induced subsidence in the environmental air.entrainment,detrainment and evaporation.The interaction between the cumulus and the environment is described by using a one-dimensional bulk model.At the same time the scheme includes the penetrative and shallow convections.The MFS has been successfully incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM2 developed by NCAR.The new model has been applied to simulate summer monsoon characteristics and their variations of heavy rainfall process in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basins for three months from May to July 1991.The results show that the new model can successfully simulate this rainfall prolonged process.By comparising the model outputs of RegCM2.using the Kuo scheme and the MFS.it is found that the MFS is better in simulating the surface temperature,rainfall position and amount,and rainfall duration.     

中全新世以来黑龙江同江地区的孢粉组合与植被、气候演化

对黑龙江省同江县96－QP剖面从下至上划分4个孢粉组合带：1是以蒙古栎－桦属－蒿属－苔草属－木本科－水龙骨科为主组合带；2是以蒿属－莎草科－禾本科－桦属－栎属为主组合带；3是以桦属－蒙古栎松属－蒿属－莎草科－禾本科为主组合带；4是以松属－桦属－蒙古栎－蒿属－苔草属为主组合带。这4个孢粉组合带清楚地反映了古植被，古气候演替4个阶段；依次为温性落叶阔叶林－针，阔叶混交林→以落叶阔叶树稍多的针、阔叶混交林－草原→以松占优势的针、阔叶混交林。其气候变化是温暖湿润－温和略干－温和略湿－温凉湿润。     

Water wars in the Middle East: a looming threat

This paper explains how hydropolitical dynamics and spatial variables almost triggered a water war between Israel and Lebanon because the latter was building a pump on the Wazzani Spring, a tributary of the Jordan River. The convergence of a regional drought, history of violent confrontations between the two riparians, distrust, varying development needs and territorial disputes almost culminated in a war between these east Mediterranean neighbours. While most international water disputes in the Middle East will be resolved peacefully, some are likely to trigger violent confrontations threatening political stability in the Middle East in the next few decades.     

极地冰芯中记录的火山作用及其对气候的影响

大多数火山喷发以强酸 (主要是硫酸 )的形式在极地冰芯中留下痕迹 ,通过冰芯连续电导率 (ECM)或各个雪冰样品SO42 - 浓度测定能够恢复历史上的火山作用。极地冰芯中已知年代的火山喷发还可用于冰芯定年。极地冰芯记录的火山信号大小依赖于火山喷发的规模和类型 ,火山喷发的地理位置和酸性气体组成 ,大气气溶胶传输 ,以及沉降地点的年积累率和沉积后生过程等。单个火山喷发通常会导致数月至数年的半球乃至全球范围的气候相对变冷 (这种现象在极区变得更明显 ) ,但过去大规模的爆炸性火山喷发对气候的影响及其与气候变化之间的联系仍有待于进一步研究