闲暇时间约束对中山陵景区国内客源市场空间结构的影响

闲暇时间是旅游需求得以实现的必要条件之一,居民闲暇时间的变化必然对旅游地客源市场空间结构产生影响。选择"五一"小长假、"十一"黄金周及暑假3类6个不同闲暇时长的时段,基于现场问卷调研,使用客源地地理集中指数、客源吸引半径、距离衰减曲线及引力模型研究闲暇时间约束对南京市中山陵景区客源市场空间结构的影响,发现随着假日时长的增加,居民出游距离受闲暇时间的约束降低,从而旅游地客源吸引半径增大,客源地集中指数降低、距离衰减曲线变缓、距离衰减指数降低。研究结果表明,在不同时长的闲暇时间约束下,距离因素对景区客流量的影响最大,其次为收入(客源地人均地区生产总值),而客源地人口规模因素的影响最小。     

Titles Of Theses

This essay questions the effectiveness of nuclear winter modeling as a means of impacting nuclear policy and changing public attitudes about nuclear issues. In nuclear winter modeling, humanistic concern over the possibility of global environmental destruction is cloaked in the ostensibly neutral language of science. Nuclear winter modeling attempts to apply rational argument to an issue that is rooted instead in human affect and morality. The implications of this misappropriation are discussed in terms of the dehumanizing nature of the images conjured up by nuclear winter, its attention to the effects of nuclear weapons rather than deeper structural problems, and its political ambiguity as a function of unresolvable uncertainty in model results.     

改革开放以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China’s implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China’s new agricultural policy. The results show that China’s agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD’s basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.     

Surface energy and water vapor fluxes observed in a desert plantation in central Iran

Summertime observations of surface radiation budget, energy balance and atmospheric surface layer meteorology were made on an arid valley floor planted with Haloxylon aphyllum to combat desertification in central Iran. The surface microclimate is characterized and compared with other arid regions and the role of ‘desert greening’ on surface fluxes is considered. A high surface albedo (0.265) and large longwave radiation loss produced relatively low net radiation. Energy partitioning was dominated by sensible and ground heat fluxes with opposing diurnal asymmetry governed by strong diurnal variability in eddy diffusivity. The Bowen ratio was 2.53, which fell inside the range of other vegetated arid surfaces. Surface temperature gradients were strong both in the atmospheric surface layer and in the substrate, with consistent lapse conditions by day and inversions at night. The wind regime included a moderate daytime regional wind which displayed Coriolis turning and weaker nocturnal slope flows. Actual evapotranspiration (1 mm dy⁻¹) was only a small fraction of potential evapotranspiration. The diurnal pattern of AET indicates strong stomatal control. The desert greening effect of Haloxylon plantations provided atmospheric water and reduced sensible heat flux by up to 40%.     

SOCIAL BARRIERS TO RENEWABLE ENERGY LANDSCAPES*

After many years of slow progress, we find that worldwide environmental, political, and economic pressures are providing greater purchase for the accelerated development of renewable energy. Although many people would consider this quickening pace good news, the transition from conventional resources has encountered public resistance. In this article I examine the nature of challenges to the development of geothermal, wind, and solar energy projects in three places: the United States, Scotland, and Mexico. The common thread in the public reservations about renewable energy is landscape change and the consequent disruption such change produces to established ways of life for those who are nearby. It also suggests the importance of rebalancing the emphasis of renewable energy programs away from the traditional technical focus that dominates development planning. The more suitable and expedient approach would be to consider the challenges of development as predominantly social matters with technical components, rather than the other way around. To accept this view is to unlock the door to a renewable energy future.     

南极绕极流区中尺度涡动动能年际变化和转换机制

采用多种资料研究南大洋南极绕极流(Antarctic Circumpolar Current,ACC)区中尺度涡的年际变化规律及机制.通过分析网格化融合卫星海洋资料AVISO(Archiving,Validation and Interpretation of Satellites Oceanographic DATA...     

The Sustainable Global Energy Economy: Hydrogen or Silicon?

A sustainable global silicon energy economy is proposed as a potential alternative to the hydrogen economy. This first visualization of a silicon energy economy is based on large-scale and carbon-neutral metallic silicon production from major smelters in North Africa and elsewhere, supplied by desert silica sand and electricity from extensive solar generating systems. The resulting “fuel silicon” is shipped around the world to emission-free silicon power stations for either immediate electricity generation or stockpiling. The high energy density of silicon and its stable storage make it an ideal material for maintaining national economic functioning through security of base load power supply from a renewable source. This contrasts with the present situation of fossil fuel usage with its associated global warming and geopolitical supply uncertainties. Critical technological requirements for the silicon economy are carbon-neutral silicon production and the development of efficient silicon-fired power stations capable of high-temperature rapid oxidation of fuel silicon. A call is made for the development of research effort into these specific engineering issues, and also with respect to large-scale economical solar power generation.     

高速公路、市场潜力与人力资本空间分布研究

基于我国2000年、2010年250个城市数据,通过高速公路网测算城市间时间距离以刻画城市的国内和国外市场潜力,控制城市教育水平、内部市场规模、产业结构、行政级别等。考虑空间自相关,采用空间计量模型研究不同空间尺度市场潜力对人力资本空间分布的差异化影响。结果发现:高速公路网的基本建成使得市场潜力显著影响城市的人力资本积累,城市越靠近国内市场中心则人力资本水平越低,越靠近国外市场则人力资本水平越高。考虑规模效应和竞争效应布局城市交通网络,加强教育投入,能够有效提高城市人力资本水平。     

国内外页岩气研究进展及山东省页岩气资源潜力

当前国际能源供需矛盾突出,能源问题日益成为各国关注的焦点,页岩气资源勘查开发备受世界瞩目;全球页岩气资源非常丰富,主要分布在北美、中亚和中国、拉美、中东和北非、前苏联地区;近年来随着开采和利用技术的不断进步,美洲、欧洲、亚洲国家对页岩气的勘查开发正在形成热潮。中国页岩气资源丰富,对页岩气的区域勘查研究越来越多,取得了不错的成果,但总体上中国页岩气的研究和勘查尚处于起步阶段,同时中国的开发技术与国外相比还存在较大的差距。结合山东省不同类型富含有机质泥页岩的具体特点和国内外页岩气勘查经验,初步认为山东省具有一定的页岩气形成条件,山东省页岩气远景区地层主要为新生代古近纪济阳群和五图群及官庄群,中生代早白垩世莱阳群,古生代石炭—二叠纪月门沟群和石盒子群;在综合考虑页岩的赋存层位、页岩成气潜力和页岩气开发可行性的基础上,提出了山东省页岩气潜力区为:济阳坳陷区、临清坳陷区、胶莱坳陷区和黄县(龙口)凹陷以及鲁西南潜隆起区,其中济阳-临清坳陷地区页岩气潜力较好。