我国东北地区夏季暴雨的气候学特征

利用东北三省和内蒙古东部200个测站1961～2005年的逐日降水资料,分析了东北地区夏季暴雨的空间分布特征和时间演变规律,以及各类暴雨与各种影响天气系统之间的气候统计关系。结果表明,在空间分布上,暴雨由东北地区的东南部向西北部递减的地域特征十分明显,绝大多数大范围和区域性暴雨一般都集中出现在东北地区的南部和中部,而局地暴雨的分布范围相对较广,地域差别也较小。在时间分布上,几十年来东北地区暴雨的阶段性变化特征十分明显,多暴雨和少暴雨的出现具有11～12年左右的低频变化周期。20世纪80年代初以来,暴雨日出现的年际变率有明显增加的趋势,特别是20世纪90年代中期以后,东北地区暴雨发生的次数虽然明显减少,但平均每个暴雨日的暴雨量却有所增加。在东北地区出现的局地暴雨中,以北方天气系统的影响贡献最大,而在区域性暴雨和大范围暴雨中,南方天气系统影响的比例明显增加。     

Non-linear Bayesian joint inversion of seismic reflection coefficients

Inversion of seismic reflection coefficients is formulated in a Bayesian framework. Measured reflection coefficients and model parameters are assigned statistical distributions based on information known prior to the inversion, and together with the forward model uncertainties are propagated into the final result. This enables a quantification of the reliability of the inversion. Quadratic approximations to the Zoeppritz equations are used as the forward model. Compared with the linear approximations the bias is reduced and the uncertainty estimate is more reliable. The differences when using the quadratic approximations and the exact expressions are minor. The solution algorithm is sampling based, and because of the non-linear forward model, the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is used. To achieve convergence it is important to keep strict control of the acceptance probability in the algorithm. Joint inversion using information from both reflected PP waves and converted PS waves yields smaller bias and reduced uncertainty compared to using only reflected PP waves.     

A Fractal Interaction Model for Winding Paths through Complex Distributions: Application to Soil Drainage Networks

Water interacts with soil through pore channels putting mineral constituents and pollutants into solution. The irregularity of pore boundaries and the heterogeneity of distribution of soil minerals and contaminants are, among others, two factors influencing that interaction and, consequently, the leaching of chemicals and the dispersion of solute throughout the soil. This paper deals with the interaction of irregular winding dragging paths through soil complex distributions. A mathematical modelling of the interplay between multifractal distributions of mineral/pollutants in soil and fractal pore networks is presented. A Hölder path is used as a model of soil pore network and a multifractal measure as a model of soil complex distribution, obtaining a mathematical result which shows that the Hölder exponent of the path and the entropy dimension of the distribution may be used to quantify such interplay. Practical interpretation and potential applications of the above result in the context of soil are discussed. Since estimates of the value of both parameters can be obtained from field and laboratory data, hopefully this mathematical modelling might prove useful in the study of solute dispersion processes in soil.     

IMPACT OF UPLIFT OF TIBETAN PLATEAU AND CHANGE OF LAND-OCEAN DISTRIBUTION ON CLIMATE OVER ASIA*

Using an improved CCM1/NCAR climate dynamic model and a combination distribution of land-ocean-vegetation during 40-50 MaBP,a series of numerical experiments representing different stages of the Tibetan Plateau uplifting and different land-ocean distributions are designed to discuss the influence of the Plateau uplifting and land-ocean distribution variation on Asian climate change.It is shown that Tibetan Plateau uplifting can firstly increase the precipitation in China during the period from initial uplift to half height of modern Tibetan Plateau and then decrease the rainfall during the time from the half height to the present plateau. At the same time.the uplifting can reduce surface air temperature over China.Besides.the effects of the uplift and land-ocean distribution change on the variation of winter and summer Asian monsoon circulation are also discussed.     

Statistical aspects of Tricomi's function and modified Bessel functions of the second kind

Some of the considerable statistical content of modified Bessel functions of the second kind and of Tricomi's confluent hypergeometric function is illustrated. Moment solutions for the parameters of exponential class distribution functions based on both are derived. Unlike the generalised inverse Gaussian, the Tricomi exponential distribution is little known but it emerges that it is of wide applicability, highly flexible and has the gamma distribution as a special case.     

地震动群延时不确定性对反应谱的影响研究

为了考察外部激励群延时对反应谱的影响,分别从确定性的角度和统计的角度分析了群延时对线性单自由度结构体系位移响应最大值的影响。推导出了对应于给定单自由度结构体系在任意外部激励作用下最大位移响应的群延时。据此可以利用任意外部激励的群延时与结构体系的最大位移响应群延时的关系评估体系在该外部激励作用下位移响应峰值的大小。统计分析的结果表明:激励群延时的均值和方差对结构体系位移响应最大值的影响具有明显的规律性;激励群延时的分布频数与结构体系最大位移响应之间也存在着显著的关系。     

基于响应面法的边坡稳定二阶可靠度分析

提出了基于响应面法的边坡稳定二阶可靠度分析的实用算法。选择U空间中的随机变量,通过空间变换和相关矩阵分解,计算试验点的功能函数;通过迭代算法构造响应面、以确保通过最小的计算量获得最优精度,并在此基础上进行FORM/SORM计算。以一岩石边坡的平面滑动问题为例,通过与蒙特卡洛模拟、FORM及随机响应面法的比较,证明了该方法的准确性和高效性。分析了参数的相关性及试验点取值范围对计算结果的影响,讨论了可靠度分析结果中参数敏感性和物理属性问题。该方法可为实际边坡问题的可靠度分析提供参考,并可以用来进行基于可靠度分析的加固设计。