Using kernel density estimation to explore habitat use by seabirds at a marine renewable wave energy test facility

If Scottish Government targets are met, the equivalent of 100% of Scotland's electricity demand will be generated from renewable sources by 2020. There are several possible risks posed to seabirds from marine renewable energy installations (MREIs) and many knowledge gaps still exist around the extent to which seabird habitats can overlap with MREIs. In this study, underlying seasonal and interannual variation in seabird distributions was investigated using kernel density estimation (KDE) to identify areas of core habitat use. This allowed the potential interactions between seabirds and a wave energy converter (WEC) to be assessed. The distributions of four seabird species were compared between seasons, years, and in the presence and absence of WECs. Although substantial interannual variation existed in baseline years prior to WEC deployment, the KDEs for all four species analysed were closer to the mooring points in the presence of a WEC in at least one season. The KDEs for all four species also increased in area in at least one season in the presence of a WEC. The KDEs of the northern fulmar and great skua overlapped the mooring points during spring in the presence of a device. The density of observations close to the mooring points increased for great skua, northern gannet, and northern fulmar during summer in the presence of a device. These results suggest that none of the four species analysed have shown avoidance or an extreme change in distribution as a result of the presence of a WEC. The continued monitoring of seabirds during WEC deployments is necessary to provide further data on how distributions may change in response to the presence of WECs.     

Grain‐size distributions and coastal morphodynamics along the southern Maryland and Virginia barrier islands

This study examined grain‐size distributions to address questions regarding geological and oceanographic controls on island morphodynamics along one of the longest undeveloped, mixed‐energy barrier island systems in the world. In particular, statistical analyses (i.e. analysis of variance, Tukey honest significant difference multiple comparison tests, nonparametric statistics and linear regression analysis) of 230 barrier island samples from Ocean City Inlet, Maryland, to the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and 134 nearshore samples (d ≤ 10 m) identified grain‐size trends related to the morphodynamic characteristics of these systems. In general, the Virginia barrier islands north of Wachapreague Inlet and Assateague Island form a statistically different subset of grain sizes (medium‐grained to coarse‐grained sand) from the islands south of Wachapreague Inlet (fine‐grained sand). These textural trends corroborate the Pleistocene headlands of the Delmarva coastal compartment as the sediment source and indicate that some of the coarse‐grained to medium‐grained sediment bypasses the large sinks in the net southward longshore sediment transport system (i.e. Fishing Point and Chincoteague Inlet). This research also demonstrates that the preferential accumulation of coarse‐grained to medium‐grained sand on the ebb‐tidal delta at Wachapreague Inlet probably controls the erosional morphodynamics of the islands located downdrift (south) of the inlet. These results suggest that an increase in tidal prism, set up by sea‐level rise and/or a shift in wave climate/refraction patterns, may lead to barrier island fragmentation and a runaway transgression of this predominantly natural barrier island system. Consequently, a grain analysis of major coastal compartments, across multiple driving forces, can be used to assess coastal morphodynamics and the potential impact of climate change on coastal systems.     

基于ADTD闪电定位资料的重庆市地闪特征分析

为了掌握重庆市雷电活动规律,采用数理统计方法及ArcGIS软件,对2008—2019年ADTD闪电定位资料进行分析,得到了重庆市地闪频次的时空分布特征,雷电流幅值、陡度的分布特征和累积概率分布函数。结果表明:重庆市平均每年发生地闪2.08×10^(5)次,其中负地闪占95.7%;地闪频次年际变化大,最多年为3.04×10^(5)次,最少年为1.27×10^(5)次,月分布呈单峰型,7—8月为雷电高发期,占全年的57.9%,日变化呈双峰型,负地闪在夜间03时及下午17时到达峰值,正地闪峰值出现时间比负地闪要晚1—2 h,且午后的峰值远小于夜间;地闪密度空间分布与地形关系密切,大值区主要集中在山脉的交汇处及台地—丘陵向山地的过渡地带;江津北部至重庆中心城区、开州南部至万州北部、忠县南部至石柱西部、永川南部—荣昌至大足西部为地闪密度大值区,密度普遍大于3次·km^(-2)·a^(-1),局部大于6次·km^(-2)·a^(-1);总地闪平均幅值为37.9 kA,其中10—50 kA的部分占80.1%,概率峰值则出现在28 kA;总地闪平均陡度为10.1 kA·μs^(-1),其中5—20 kA·μs^(-1)部分占92%,概率峰值出现在8 kA·μs^(-1)。利用最小二乘法回归拟合得到总地闪幅值及陡度的累积概率分布函数,观测值和拟合值基本一致,拟合较好。     

云微物理过程对黄山云滴谱离散度的影响

利用2008年4—7月、2009年5—8月和2011年5—9月黄山光明顶的云滴谱观测资料,对离散度和体积平均半径之间的关系进行了深入的分析和讨论。结果表明,随着体积平均半径的增大,离散度与体积平均半径之间的相关从正变成负,主要与活化、凝结、蒸发和去活化有关,与以往研究一致。在此基础上,进一步发现负相关比较弱,主要与碰并过程有关。当云雨自动转化阈值函数增大时,碰并增强,离散度与体积平均半径之间的相关性由负转正,且正相关性逐渐增强。碰并导致的正相关削弱了凝结和蒸发导致的负相关。此外,尽管云滴谱出现了双峰谱,但第一档强度(第一档浓度除以总的浓度)仍然可以很好地区分正负相关性。     

Antecedent soil moisture conditions of different soil types in South‐western Ontario,Canada

Soil moisture conditions prior to input design storms need to be known in the planning and design of urban stormwater control facilities using the design storm approach. Limited information is available on these soil moisture conditions which are commonly referred to as the antecedent soil moisture conditions. In this study, a deterministic continuous simulation model was used to simulate antecedent soil moisture conditions under south‐western Ontario, Canada, climate conditions. A wide range of different soil types were investigated and various statistical analyses on the simulated antecedent soil moisture results were performed. Frequency analyses illustrated typical distributions of antecedent soil moisture conditions and the influence of finer and coarser textured soil particles. Empirical equations were developed for the estimation of average antecedent soil moisture conditions based on commonly known soil characteristics. Satisfactory performance of the empirical equations was demonstrated by comparing between field average antecedent soil moisture data and empirically estimated average antecedent soil moisture values. These equations are therefore recommended for use in urban stormwater studies incorporating the design storm approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近30年西藏汛期强降水事件的时空变化特征

利用1980-2008年汛期(5～9月)西藏38个气象站逐日降水量资料,定义了西藏强降水标准,并采用REOF、SSA等统计方法,分析了汛期强降水发生频次的时空分布特征。结果表明,西藏地区汛期强降水发生频数自东南向西北逐渐减少,但总体呈不明显的增多趋势,即从20世纪80年代中期开始减少,90年代中期降至最少,之后逐渐增多;频数存在5个异常分布空间型,即南部型、沿江型、东部型、北部型和东南部型。各空间型的强降水发生频数随时间变化均不同,其中南部型、东南部型表现为减少趋势;沿江型、东部型和北部型表现为增多趋势。汛期强降水发生频数的准2～3年和准5～6年周期在5个异常空间型普遍存在。     

2006年春季我国沙尘天气特征及成因分析

利用全国673个站每日8个时次的地面天气报告资料和T213模式产品,分析了2006年春季我国沙尘天气的主要特征及其成因。结果表明:2006年沙尘暴、强沙尘暴范围偏大、沙尘天气强度偏强;2006年春季我国北方沙尘天气过程(17次)偏多、强沙尘暴过程(5次)是2000年以来最多的一年,其中2006年4月9 11日强沙尘暴天气过程的影响范围和强度为20世纪90年代以来第三位;沙尘多发期长、结束晚。2006年春季北方大部地区气温偏高,致使地表层解冻快,土质疏松;降水偏少,地表干土层增厚,为沙尘天气的发生提供了有利的条件。2006年春季东亚大槽偏强,影响我国的冷空气活动较频繁且势力较强,蒙古气旋活动频繁。前期偏暖少雨与冷空气和蒙古气旋的共同作用,是造成2006年春季我国沙尘强度明显偏强且多发期结束晚的主要原因。     

The SAI catalog of supernovae and radial distributions of supernovae of various types in galaxies

We describe the Sternberg Astronomical Institute (SAI) catalog of supernovae. We show that the radial distributions of type-Ia, type-Ibc, and type-II supernovae differ in the central parts of spiral galaxies and are similar in their outer regions, while the radial distribution of type-Ia supernovae in elliptical galaxies differs from that in spiral and lenticular galaxies. We give a list of the supernovae that are farthest from the galactic centers, estimate their relative explosion rate, and discuss their possible origins.     

Vertical Distributions of Larvae of the Clam <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ruditapes philippinarum</Emphasis> and the Striped Horse Mussel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Musculista senhousia</Emphasis> in Eastern Ariake Bay,Southern Japan

We have examined the vertical distributions of planktonic bivalve larvae, particularly the clam Ruditapes philippinarum and the mussel Musculista senhousia which are common and abundant on tidal flats of eastern Ariake Bay, southern Japan. Submersible pumping gear was used to take samples at 2 stations every 2 hours during the spring tide over a whole tidal cycle and/or through daytime and nighttime. Water samples were pumped up from 3 to 5 depths from the surface to sea bottom. Regardless of tidal cycles, D-shaped larvae were concentrated near the surface, while umbo larvae were found at the surface to intermediate depths. On average, these larval densities were significantly higher at the station close to the shore than the offshore station, with no significant difference between daytime and nighttime and between flood and ebb tides at each station. The velocity and direction of water movement at both stations revealed remarkable difference between the surface and bottom waters. The larvae at the surface may quickly disperse and be transported elsewhere, while those in water close to the sea bottom may tend to be retained.     

A Study of Wind Statistics Through Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) Modeling

Statistical properties of winds near the Taichung Harbour are investigated. The 26 years'incomplete data of wind speeds, measured on an hourly basis, are used as reference. The possibility of imputation using simulated results of the Auto-Regressive (AR), Moving-Average (MA), and/ or Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average (ARMA) models is studied. Predictions of the 25-year extreme wind speeds based upon the augmented data are compared with the original series. Based upon the results, predictions of the 50- and 100-year extreme wind speeds are then made.