中强地震前后能量分布的自仿射特性

根据简化的地震波传播理论,“漫化”地震能量在空间的分配,减弱能量空间分布概率的极端情形及消除统计域为“空”的情形,由此构造类似于二维ｆＢｍ的地震能量空间分布概率曲面。与起伏不平的地形相似,由于基在水平方向及垂直方向的变化不是等比例的,因而这一分形曲面可能是统计自仿射的。     

北京及邻区微震活动的初步分析

通过对北京遥测地震台网近年来记录到的北京及邻区地震的震中分布,地震活动频度及能量释放强度的分析,得到本区地震活动在时间分布上具有“聚堆性”。在年发震频度,地震强度和能释放方面均具有双峰值特征,并且具有较好的一致性和同步性,在空间分布上具有条带特征,且形成北东～南西和北西～南东的两条相互交汇的条带。又通过统计分析得到本区发震概率最大的时间段是每年的１０月前后,而地震主要发生在北西～南东带上。     

Microlites and "nanolites" in rhyolitic glass: microstructural and chemical characterization

 We used transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to study magmatic crystals in the Ben Lomond rhyolite lava dome, Taupo Volcanic Center, New Zealand. Using TEM and SEM to investigate the size distributions of these crystals, we identified three size populations: microphenocrysts (>1.2 μm wide), microlites (>0.6 μm wide), and smaller crystals (<0.6 μm wide) which we term "nanolites". The predominant mineral phases of the microlites and nanolites are augites, pigeonites, and hypersthenes. The compositions and microstructures within these pyroxenes indicate disequilibrium crystallization at approximately 850–900  °C and undercoolings as high as 300  °C from equilibrium crystallization temperatures. Complex microstructures resulting from subsolidus reactions in augite and pigeonite are consistent with moderate cooling rates within the upper obsidian layer of the Ben Lomond rhyolite dome. This study demonstrates the existence of sub-micron magmatic crystals in a rhyolite and illustrates the potential of TEM to provide unique information about the crystallization and cooling histories of glassy volcanic rocks. Received: May 8, 1995 / Accepted: November 27, 1995     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Springs of Great Britain

Predictably, in a country such as Britain, with its preponderance of consolidated, sedimentary, mainly fissure-flow aquifers, there is a very large number of springs, many of which are, or have been, used for public supply. Migratory springs are a feature of the British (Ur. Cretaceous) Chalk, the most important British aquifer. The Chalk's low specific yield and high capillary moisture retention together give rise to very considerable fluctuations (more than 33 m in some areas) of the unconfined water table. Along the gentle dip slopes of the Chalk (North and South Downs of southern and southeastern England) springs may migrate laterally for several miles, giving rise to seasonal streams locally known as bournes or lavants. However, springs such as at Duncton, West Sussex, at the base of the much steeper scarp slopes of the Chalk, form point sources, the flows from which tend to be relatively steady; such springs commonly supply and are the original reason for the existence of many of the small towns and villages which nestle along the bases of the chalk scarps of Sussex and Kent.Where the Chalk forms coastal cliffs, a number of springs break out at the base of the cliff between high and low tide levels; there are major chalk coastal springs, for instance, at St. Margaret's Bay (Kent) and at Arish Mells, east of Lulworth Cove, Dorset. Such springs are not used for direct supply (their salinity is usually too high) but are indicators of the presence of local reserves of groundwater for possible future development.     

暖切变型江淮梅雨锋结构及其形成和维持机制

对在1991年7月上旬特别稳定的梅雨形势下持续10天的特大暴雨期作了合成和典型过程研究,并进一步探讨了暖切变型江淮梅雨锋天气系统模型。它在自由大气层表现为结构竖立的相当正压切变线和一种不同于经典地转动量近似的带状准二维运动场。边界层的浅层锋生倾斜环流以及偏于切变线轴以南的Ekman抽吸与自由大气层中基本上由积云对流加热驱动的竖直环流相互依存和耦合,造成持续的大暴雨。这种系统的初生和中断后复苏的机制可能是由斜压性极弱的副热带高空东移的短波扰动在低层“湿度锋”带紧南侧触发导致的一种带状CISK。     

Weak-contrast approximation of the elastic scattering matrix in anisotropic media

The plane-wave reflection and transmission coefficients at a plane interface between two anisotropic media constitute the elements of the elastic scattering matrix. For a 1-D anisotropic medium the eigenvector decomposition of the system matrix of the transformed elasto-dynamic equations is used to derive a general expression for the scattering matrix. Depending on the normalization of the eigenvectors, the expressions give scattering coefficients for amplitudes or for vertical energy flux.Computing the vertical slownesses and the corresponding polarizations, the eigenvector matrix and its inverse can be found. We give a simple formula for the inverse, regardless of the normalization of the eigenvectors. When the eigenvectors are normalized with respect to amplitudes of displacement (or velocity), the calculation of the scattering matrix for amplitudes is simplified.When the relative changes in all parameters are small, a weak-contrast approximation of the scattering matrix, based on the exactly determined polarization vectors in an average medium, is obtained. The same approximation is also derived directly from the transformed elasto-dynamic equations for a smooth vertically inhomogeneous medium, proving the consistency of the approximation.For monoclinic media, with the mirror symmetry plane parallel to the interface, the approximative scattering matrix is given in terms of analytic expressions for the non-normalized eigenvectors and vertical slownesses. For transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry (VTI) and isotropic media, explicit solutions for the weak-contrast approximations of the scattering matrices have been obtained. The scattering matrix for amplitudes for isotropic media is well known. The scattering matrix for vertical energy flux may have applications in AVO analysis and inversion due to the reciprocity of the reflection coefficients for converted waves.Numerical examples for monoclinic and VTI media provide good agreement between the approximative and the exact reflection matrices. It is, however, expected that the approximations cannot be used when the symmetry properties of the two media are very different. This is because the approximation relies on a small relative contrast between the eigenvectors in the two media.Presented at the Workshop Meeting on Seismic Waves in Laterally Inhomogeneous Media, Castle of Trest, Czech Republic, May 22–27, 1995.     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

The origin of accretionary lapilli

Experimental investigations in a recirculating wind tunnel of the mechanisms of formation of accretionary lapilli have demonstrated that growth is controlled by collision of liquid-coated particles, due to differences in fall velocities, and binding as a result of surface tension forces and secondary mineral growth. The liquids present on particle surfaces in eruption plumes are acid solutions stable at 100% relative humidity, from which secondary minerals, e.g. calcium sulphate and sodium chloride, precipitate prior to impact of accretionary lapilli with the ground. Concentric grain-size zones within accretionary lapilli build up due to differences in the supply of particular particle sizes during aggregate growth. Accretionary lapilli do not evolve by scavenging of particles by liquid drops followed by evaporation — a process which, in wind tunnel experiments, generates horizontally layered hemispherical aggregates. Size analysis of particles in the wind tunnel air stream and particles adhering to growing aggregates demonstrate that the aggregation coefficient is highly grain-size dependent. Theoretical simulation of accretionary lapilli growth in eruption plumes predicts maximum sizes in the range 0.7–20 mm for ash cloud thicknesses of 0.5–10 km respectively.