小浪底工程岩体力学参数研究

本文系统研究了小浪底工程的岩体的强度特征,采用了室内试验,野外结构面统计,工程地质类比法、模型试验法和Hoek Brown的经验法,估算了工程岩体的力学指标,指出了上述各种方法中所存在的不足,认为在工程实践中,应尽可能使用多种估计方法,交叉校核所得参数,以提高参数的可靠性,保证工程的安全,节约投资。     

多元判据综合评估中期天气客观相似预报模式

提出一个对多元判据综合评估的中期天气客观相似预报模式。模式应用同中期天气过程的时间—空间尺度相适应的经过时间滤波的大气环流背景为客观判据，比较全面地评估了预报时刻前后多层次、多要素的大气环流动态变化的相似，通过定义相似指数综合评估在多元判据下样本的相似程度，从相似时域的历史样本中找到较佳相似的中期过程，预测未来l～10天的中期天气过程。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。     

The identification and criteria of short-term seismicity gap before a great earthquake

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基于SLFT的边坡强度折减法失稳判据

强度折减法在评价边坡稳定性时不需要假设和搜索临界滑裂面，相对于其它方法具有一定优势，但失稳判据尚无明 确标准。滑移线场理论（SLFT） 可以计算得到的极限状态下的边坡坡面曲线（简称极限坡面曲线），已有研究表明极限坡 面曲线与边坡坡面的相对位置关系可以判断边坡稳定性。基于该结论提出一种边坡强度折减法失稳判据：不同折减系数计 算得到不同的强度参数，因此滑移线场理论计算得到的极限坡面曲线将发生变化，当极限坡面曲线与边坡坡面在坡底相离 时，判断边坡为稳定状态；当极限坡面曲线与边坡坡面相交于坡脚时，判断边坡为极限平衡状态；当极限坡面曲线与边坡 坡面相交时，判断边坡为失稳状态。对标准边坡考题的计算结果表明：提出的失稳判据收敛性较好，安全系数计算结果与 标准答案和已有失稳判据分析结论相差较小；传统失稳判据收敛指标的确定没有明确标准，当位移突变曲线光滑时很难找 到突变点，很难准确计算对应的安全系数，更重要的是传统失稳判据判断边坡极限状态受到人为主观因素的影响，而提出 的失稳判据可以实现失稳判据的客观标准化；确定的临界滑裂面形状以及在边坡中的位置都与标准答案基本一致，提出的 失稳判据适用于强度折减法。     

地下厂房洞室群岩爆趋势综合预测方法

以拉西瓦水电站地下厂房洞室群原设计方案为例，基于其赋存地质条件调研结果和岩爆产生基本条件，对岩爆趋势进行宏观预测；并结合研究区其他高地应力现象，建立了岩爆预测类比判据。进而基于厂房开挖后二次应力场数值计算结果，以所建判据圈定了岩爆可能发生部位及强烈程度。结果表明，将宏观判据与类比判据结合的岩爆综合预测方法，考虑因素全面，也尊重了研究区实际情况，因而合理可行。     

Comparison of hydraulic geometry between sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers in relation to channel pattern discrimination

A comparison has been made between the hydraulic geometry of sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers, based on data from alluvial rivers around the world. The results indicate a signi?cant difference in hydraulic geometry among sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers with different channel patterns. On this basis, some diagrams for discrimination of meandering and braided channel patterns have been established. The relationships between channel width and water discharge, between channel depth and water discharge, between width–depth ratio and water discharge and between channel slope and water discharge can all be used for channel pattern discrimination. The relationship between channel width and channel depth can also be used for channel pattern discrimination. However, the accuracy of these relationships for channel pattern discrimination varies, and the depth–discharge relationship is a better discriminator of pattern type than the classic slope–discharge function. The cause for this difference has been explained qualitatively. To predict the development of channel patterns under different natural conditions, the pattern discriminator should be searched on the basis of independent or at least semi‐independent variables. The relationship between stream power and bed material grain size can be used to discriminate channel patterns, which shows a better result than the discriminator using the slope–discharge relationship. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probability-consistent spectrum and code spectrum

IntroductionInChina,thecombinationofseismicdesigncodewithzoningmapofseismicintensityorgroundmotionparametersisusuallyadoptedtodeterminetheseismicfortificationcriterionforthegeneralindustryandcivilbuildings.Thepresentproceduresareasfollows.Accordingtothepro-jectlocation,thedesignbasicaccelerationofgroundmotionandthedesigncharacteristicperiodofresponsespectrumareobtainedfromthezoningmapofseismicgroundmotionparameters(GeneralAdministrationofQualitySupervision,InspectionandQuarantineofthePeople…     

Strain field measurements of rubber by image analysis and design criteria for laminated rubber bearings (LRB)

Although seismic isolation rubber bearings in bridges and buildings have proven to be a very effective passive method for reducing earthquake‐induced forces, a detailed mechanical modeling of the rubber that is used in bearings under large strains has not been established. Therefore, a 3D model of failure behavior and the design criteria for the safety evaluation of seismic isolation bearings have not yet been developed. This paper presents: (1) correlation‐based template‐matching algorithms to measure large strain fields of continua; (2) a failure criterion for rubber; and (3) the design criteria for the safety evaluation of laminated algorithms, data‐validation algorithms were developed and implemented to eliminate possible unrealistic displacement vectors present in the measured displacement field. The algorithms were successfully employed in the strain field measurement of LRB and rubber materials that are subjected to failure. The measured local strains for rubber material at failure were used to develop a failure criterion for rubber. The validity of the proposed criterion was evaluated by applying it to the LRB; the criterion was introduced into a 3D finite element model of LRB, compared with the experimental results of bearings failure, and verified. Finally, design criteria are proposed for LRB for the safety evaluation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

夏季降水量与气温资料的恢复试验

该文对我国汛期降水量和气温缺测资料及资料均一性恢复的方法进行试验研究。对单个气候地区（东北区），以及全国6个气候地区用逐步回归和逐步判别方法进行缺测1～5年恢复试验。对东北地区内所有站点的试验表明，逐步判别分析方法比逐步回归分析方法恢复效果好些；选择邻站用判别分析方法建立的恢复模型，效果更好。全国气候地区试验表明，选择邻站的判别分析方法有较好的恢复效果。