The Correlation Bias for Two-Dimensional Simulations by Turning Bands

The turning bands method (TBM) generates realizations of isotropic Gaussian random fields by summing contributions from line processes. We consider two-dimensional simulations and study the correlation bias attributable to the use of only a finite number L of lines. Our analytical and numerical results confirm that the maximal bias is of order 1/L, and that L = 64 lines suffice for excellent covariance reproduction. The notorious banding observed in simulations with an insufficient number of lines is a related but different phenomenon and depends strongly on the choice of the line simulation technique. Clear-cut recommendations for the number of lines necessary to avoid the effect can only be based on practical experience with the specific code at hand.     

A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT

A scheme is proposed for predicting NINO-region SST in terms of a generalized canonical mixedregression model based on principal component canonical correlation analysis(PC-CCA). and into the scheme are introduced such techniques as EEOF, PRESS criterion and consensus prediction. By optimizing physicalfactors and selecting optimal model parameters, experiments were made successful in predicting the LINO SST index for 1 to 4 seasons to follow. The scheme is shown to be stable in operation and its total technical level compares well with that of the model published in NOAA/NWS/NCEP CPC Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. butthe number of factors needed in our scheme is much fewer than that for the CPC's model in dealing with the sameproblems. This makes it possible to establish an operational ENSO monitoring system in China.     

含氮化合物的实验方法初步评价

对吡咯类含氮化合物的两种分离方法以及两步分离法中使用国产与进口试验的实验结果进行了对比与评价。结果表明,分离方法不同,所得吡咯类含氮化合物总体馏分的丰度也不同,一步分离法普遍低于两步法;不同分离方法对吡咯类化合物相对分布的影响较小。国产与进口试验性能不影响吡咯类含氮化合物的绝对丰度与相对分布的分析结果,两步分离法具备分析试剂国产化的条件。     

下滑坡及防治方案

下滑坡是由采煤引发的巨型深层顺层滑坡,目前处在蠕动变形阶段。本文对滑坡稳定性进行了计算,算出不同采空区面积下的稳定系数,计算了滑坡推力,提出了地表地下排水、煤层采空区设承重阻滑键、滑坡前缘设抗滑桩综合防治方案,可供防治设计施工参考。     

斜坡式防波护岸断面形式的实验研究

从某一大型工程中的邻海区域江堤加固工程的各种方案比较出发,分析讨论了这类工程结构形式受波浪作用的情况及结构物设计中方案比选的有关问题。     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

Non-point source pollution estimation in the Pingqiao River Basin,China, using a spatial hydrograph-separation approach

For efficient and targeted management, this study demonstrates a recently developed non-point source (NPS) pollution model for a year-long estimation in the Pingqiao River Basin (22.3 km²) in China. This simple but physically reasonable model estimates NPS export in terms of land use by reflecting spatial hydrological features and source runoff measurements under different land-use types. The NPS export was separately analysed by a distributed hydrological model, a spatial hydrograph-separation technique, and an empirical water quality sub-model. Simulation results suggest that 57 890 kg of total nitrogen (TN) and 1148 kg of total phosphorus (TP) were delivered. The results, validated with observed stream concentrations, show relative errors of 23.3% for TN and 47.4% for TP. Countermeasures for urban areas (5.3% of total area) were prioritized because of the high contribution rate to TN (14.1%) and TP (26.2%) which is caused by the high degree of runoff (8.5%) and pollution source.     

Numerical modeling of lock-exchange gravity/turbidity currents by a high-order upwinding combined compact difference scheme

This study presents two-dimensional direct numerical simulations for sediment-laden current with higher density propagating forward through a lighter ambient water.The incompressible NavierStokes equations including the buoyancy force for the density difference between the light and heavy fluids are solved by a finite difference scheme based on a structured mesh.The concentration transport equations are used to explore such rich transport phenomena as gravity and turbidity currents.Within the framework of an Upwinding Combined Compact finite Difference(UCCD)scheme,rigorous determination of weighting coefficients underlies the modified equation analysis and the minimization of the numerical modified wavenumber.This sixth-order UCCD scheme is implemented in a four-point grid stencil to approximate advection and diffusion terms in the concentration transport equations and the first-order derivative terms in the Navier-Stokes equations,which can greatly enhance convective stability and increase dispersive accuracy at the same time.The initial discontinuous concentration field is smoothed by solving a newly proposed Heaviside function to prevent numerical instabilities and unreasonable concentration values.A two-step projection method is then applied to obtain the velocity field.The numerical algorithm shows a satisfying ability to capture the generation,development,and dissipation of the Kelvin-Helmholz instabilities and turbulent billows at the interface between the current and the ambient fluid.The simulation results also are compared with the data in published literatures and good agreements are found to prove that the present numerical model can well reproduce the propagation,particle deposition,and mixing processes of lock-exchange gravity and turbidity currents.     

BDA方案在台风路径预报中的应用

利用PSU／NCAR中尺度非静力有限区域MM5及其伴随模式,以T106分析资料为背景场,设计两种台风Bogus方案对台风的初始场进行优化,并进行了数值模拟试验。对9608号台风个例的数值模拟试验研究表明,经过优化的台风初始场较好地改进了由于海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准、台风环流偏弱和台风内部结构不完整等问题,提高了台风路径预报的准确率。通过试验对比发现,BDA方案优化的初始场更合理,其台风路径预报效果优于GFDL方案。     

白鹤滩水电站左岸坝肩开挖边坡稳定性分析

白鹤滩水电站左岸坝基边坡地质构造错综复杂,坡内多条陡倾断层和顺坡向错动带是控制边坡稳定性的主要因素。结合现场地质资料、监测数据及勘察认识,利用通用离散元软件UDEC建立左岸边坡开挖变形分析模型。首先在无支护开挖工况下研究主要结构面F17、LS331、LS3319上下盘岩体关键点应力及位移变化,并指出潜在失稳破坏区;同时采用预应力锚索单元在不同施工时序下对潜在不稳定块体进行加固计算,对比研究了不同方案下左岸边坡的变形破坏机制和整体稳定性。计算结果和现场监测表明：左岸边坡变形破坏与结构面密切相关,在开挖卸荷作用下主要表现为沿错动带的压剪破坏和陡倾断层的张拉破坏,采用预应力锚索加固处理能够有效提高边坡稳定性,并且在开挖后及时跟进支护可以有效抑制边坡剪切变形。研究结果对白鹤滩左岸坝基边坡后续工程加固和施工工序具有一定的参考价值。