人工缓减梅雨锋暴雨的数值试验

本文利用耦合了中国气象科学研究院双参数微物理方案的中尺度数值模式MM5, 对2002年7月22～23日长江中游一次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了人工缓减暴雨的冷云催化数值试验。在对降水云系多尺度结构进行正确模拟的基础上, 采用增加人工冰晶的催化方法, 对人工缓减暴雨的可能方法及原理进行研究。结果表明, 不同催化方案得到比较稳定一致的结果, 在云体成熟期大剂量持续催化的减雨效果最好, 在3600 km2内减少雨量8.29×106 t, 即为自然雨量的14.8%, 雨量分布更为均匀, 其中50 mm以上降水范围由原来的190 km2缩减到60 km2。分析表明, 催化增加的大量冰晶碰并过冷雨, 使霰粒子浓度增大而平均尺度减小, 导致霰落速减弱而小于上升运动, 难于下落融化, 造成雨水减小。在周围升速小的弱雨区, 滞留的霰粒长大后仍能下落融化, 引起地面少量增雨。本文所用催化方法在实际作业中具有技术可行性, 并有重大潜在社会和经济效益, 值得深入研究和试验。     

Spatial,inter and intra‐annual variability of the Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall

In this study, monthly and annual Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall data were analyzed to learn the rainfall statistics and its temporal and spatial distribution. Frequency analysis and spatial characterization of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin are presented. Frequency analysis was performed on monthly basin rainfall. Monthly basin average rainfall data were computed from a network of 32 gauges with varying lengths of records. Monthly rainfall probability distribution varies from month to month fitting Gamma‐2, Normal, Weibull and Log‐Normal distributions. The January, July, October and November basin rainfall fit the Gamma‐2 probability distribution. The February, June and December ones fit Weibull distribution. The March, April, May and August rainfall fit Normal distribution. The September rainfall fits Log‐Normal distribution. Upper Blue Nile Basin is relatively wet with a mean annual rainfall of 1423 mm (1960–2002) with a standard deviation of 125 mm. The annual rainfall has a Normal probability distribution. The 100‐year‐drought basin annual rainfall is 1132 mm and the 100‐year‐wet basin annual rainfall is 1745 mm. The dry season is from November through April. The wet season runs from June through September with 74% of the annual rainfall. October and May are transition months. Monthly and annual rainfalls for return periods 2‐, 5‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐ and 100‐year dry and wet patterns are presented. Spatial distribution of annual rainfall over the basin is mapped and shows high variation with the southern tip receiving as high as 2049 mm and the northeastern tip as low as 794 mm annual average rainfall. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applying multifractality and the self‐organized criticality theory to describe the temporal rainfall regimes in Andalusia (southern Spain)

A multifractal analysis of hourly and daily rainfall data recorded at four locations of Andalusia (southern Spain) was carried out in order to study the temporal structure of rainfall and to find differences between both time resolutions. The results show that an algebraic tail is required to fit the probability distribution of the extreme rain events for all the cases. The presence of a multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moments scaling exponent function was also detected. Both facts indicate that the rainfall process is a case of self‐organized criticality (SOC) dynamics, although the results differ for each place according to the time resolution and the nature of the rainfall, either convective or frontal. This SOC behaviour is related to a statistically steady state that implies the presence of clusterization in the time‐occurrence sequence of rain events. Such fluctuations have been shown by performing the analysis of the Fano and Allan factors and the count‐based periodogram. The values for the “synoptic maximum”, the typical lifetime of planetary scale atmospheric structures, have been obtained for each place and some important periodicities have been detected when dealing with extremes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Studies on groundwater recharge characteristics at a reclaimed land site with an equatorial climate using time‐series and spectral analyses

Groundwater recharge studies are essential for investigating the feasibility of using the reclaimed lands in Singapore for subsurface storage and recovery of water. Through time‐series and spectral analyses, net recharge percentages and stress‐filtering characteristics at the reclaimed land were found to depend strongly on the stress transfer velocity, which was a combined function of rainfall pattern and vadose zone thickness. Based on stress transfer velocity, a theory was established to provide logical explanations for the rainfall–recharge relationship, the observed stress‐filtering characteristics and the recharge percentage characteristics at the unconfined sandy aquifer. Although the reclaimed land site has a lithollogically homogeneous soil profile, a non‐uniform recharge pattern was observed to be influenced pronouncedly by the uneven density distribution of bush grasses. Under a bare soil condition, significantly lower recharge percentages were observed for areas under the influence of offshore tides. The unconfined sandy aquifer appears to dampen out the wave propagation of offshore tides rapidly within a short distance from the tidal source, though it has a fairly straight shoreline and is created from highly compacted sand fills. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood simulation using the gauge‐adjusted radar rainfall and physics‐based distributed hydrologic model

This paper reports the results of an investigation into flood simulation by areal rainfall estimated from the combination of gauged and radar rainfalls and a rainfall–runoff model on the Anseong‐cheon basin in the southern part of Korea. The spatial and temporal characteristics and behaviour of rainfall are analysed using various approaches combining radar and rain gauges: (1) using kriging of the rain gauge alone; (2) using radar data alone; (3) using mean field bias (MFB) of both radar and rain gauges; and (4) using conditional merging technique (CM) of both radar and rain gauges. To evaluate these methods, statistics and hyetograph for rain gauges and radar rainfalls were compared using hourly radar rainfall data from the Imjin‐river, Gangwha, rainfall radar site, Korea. Then, in order to evaluate the performance of flood estimates using different rainfall estimation methods, rainfall–runoff simulation was conducted using the physics‐based distributed hydrologic model, Vflo^?. The flood runoff hydrograph was used to compare the calculated hydrographs with the observed one. Results show that the rainfall field estimated by CM methods improved flood estimates, because it optimally combines rainfall fields representing actual spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approaches for defining thresholds and return periods for rainfall‐triggered shallow landslides

Probabilistic thresholds for triggering shallow landslides by rainfall are developed using two approaches: a logistic regression model and Iverson's physically based model. Both approaches are applied to a 180 km² area in northern Italy. For the physically based model a Monte Carlo approach is used to obtain probabilities of slope failure associated with differing combinations of rainfall intensity and duration as well as differing topographic settings. For the logistic regression model hourly and daily rainfall data and split‐sample testing are used to explore the effect of antecedent rainfall on triggering thresholds. It is demonstrated that both the statistical and physically based models provide stochastic thresholds that express the probability of landslide triggering. The resulting thresholds are comparable, even though the two approaches are conceptually different. The physically based model also provides an estimate of the percentage of potentially unstable areas in which failure can be triggered with a certain probability. The return period of rainfall responsible for landslide triggering is studied by using a Gumbel scaling model of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves. It is demonstrated that antecedent rainfall must be taken into account in landslide forecasting, and a method is proposed to correct the rainfall return period by filtering the rainfall maxima with a fixed threshold of antecedent rainfall. This correction produces an increase of the return periods, especially for rainstorms of short duration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Linking Test that investigates the feasibility of inverse modelling: application to a simple rainfall interception model for Mt Gambier,southeast South Australia

Interception loss has an important influence on the water yield of forested areas. Nevertheless, in most studies stemflow is not measured, therefore the question of how to determine the feasibility of optimizing interception and stemflow parameters simultaneously by matching daily simulated throughfall to fortnightly measurements of cumulative throughfall is an important one. By applying a daily empirical interception model, a goodness fit of 2·2 mm/day is obtained between observed and simulated cumulative throughfall. However, by applying the simple but robust Linking Test, it was shown that the parameters are non‐unique and falsely linked, i.e. inter‐relationships between different vegetation parameter sets give similar throughfall but non‐unique net precipitation. The Linking Test investigates the causes of obtaining falsely linked parameters and shows that objective equifinality is not the source of the problem. Objective equifinality occurs when an inappropriate objective function is used. The Linking Test also shows that falsely linked parameters are not caused by measuring throughfall on a non‐daily basis (termed frequency sampling equifinality). By expanding the interception model to the second degree, it was found that the non‐uniqueness is due to the inherent nature of interception and stemflow functions that behave similarly and therefore can easily compensate each other (termed similarity equifinality). It is also shown that a simple daily empirical exponential interception model developed for conifers in the uplands of the United Kingdom is suitable to model interception in Pinus radiata plantations in the Mediterranean climate of southern Australia by using only daily gross precipitation data and two parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extreme short‐term stable isotope variability revealed by continuous rainwater analysis

The continuous real‐time analysis, at 30‐s intervals, of precipitation at an Australian tropical location revealed extreme and rapidly changing δ¹⁸O and δD values related to variations in moisture source areas, transport paths and precipitation histories. The range of δ¹⁸O (?19.6‰ to +2.6‰) and δD (?140‰ to +13‰) values from 5948 measurements of nine rain events over 15 days during an 8‐month period at a single location was comparable with the range measured in 1532 monthly samples from all seven Australian Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation stations from 1962 to 2002. Extreme variations in δ¹⁸O (?8.7‰ to ?19.6‰) and δD (?54‰ to ?140‰) were recorded within a single 4‐h period. Real‐time stable isotope monitoring of precipitation at a high temporal resolution enables new and powerful tracer applications in climatology, hydrology, ecophysiology and palaeoclimatology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多源降雨信息质量评估技术

多源降雨信息质量评估遇到的基本问题是各类降雨信息的空间特征不同,信息采集传输的时间频次不同和降雨真值不明。本文在地面站雨量为点降雨真值、经地面雨量站校正后的雷达观测产品反映了降雨真值的空间分布等假定基础上,提出了单点雨量、区域点雨量、面雨量、降雨空间分布和洪水预报系统产品等5个层次的多源降雨信息质量评估体系和技术。     

“玛丽亚”台风暴雨天气过程分析

受2000年第13号台风影响，湘东南局部地区遭受严重山洪灾害，根据降水强度资料、红外云图资料、大气物理量等的综合分析，阐述了第13号台风减弱成的低气压对湖南省的影响，为南海台风登陆后造成暴雨的预报提供了一定的参考。