玛纳斯县城高危震害小区的综合判定

在以玛纳斯县城各居委会小区为单元进行震害预测的基础上,分析了人员伤亡数量,社会财富和无家可归人数三项指标在评判高危震害小区中占有的地位。建立了高危震害小区判定指标公式。指出了玛纳斯县城内的第４,第９居委会小区为高危震害小区。把对高危震害小区的判定从单一定性化推向综合定量化做了一次尝试。     

地震灾害盲场快速评估系统及其应用

震后灾害损失盲场快速评估的技术方法及其计算机软件系统可在确定地震震级、震中位置和发震时间等参数后,在人员未到地震现场的情况下,快速给出该次地震对一个区域造砀 经济损失和人员伤亡的初步评估结果。选择鲁南地震重点监视防御区为评估区域,并使用该软件系统对１９９５年９月－２０日发生在苍山的５．２级地震进行了灾害损失快速评估的实际检验。从检验结果可看出 ,用固定资产损失率矩阵计算经济损失,获得基础资料方便,     

国际岩石圈计划与减轻自然灾害研究

该文介绍了国际岩石圈计划的研究项目、国际岩石圈计划的未来及国际岩石圈计划与减轻自然灾害研究。     

遥感技术预测地震灾害的初步研究——以福州市为例

本文通过对福州市多种遥感卫星图片(包括美国专题制图卫星的TM三波段假彩色合成图片,时相为一九八八年四月十八日;美国地球资源卫星CCCT计算机处理,采用比例拉伸、矩阵变换、对数直方化、北东向增强、北西向增强等方法处理的不同图片),对福州市所处的地理位置、地形地貌特征、地震地质构造背景、水文地质条件,工程地质特征进行解释,结合野外地震地质调查,评判潜在的地震地质灾害。     

INVESTIGATION OF STATUS AND DEMAND ON PUBLIC SERVICE OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION IN CHINA

In order to make a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the status and demands of public service of earthquake disaster mitigation, we launched an investigation with Social Opinion Polling Center of National Bureau of Statistics on the current situation of public service of earthquake disaster mitigation and the demands for it in 2018. The investigation was conducted for 18~75-year-old residents for both urban and rural areas in 31 provinces of China mainland using the Computer Assisted Telephone Interview(CATI)method and 20 078 valid samples were received in total. The questionnaire mainly includes two parts: the current situation assessment and the demand survey. The assessment of public service status consists of five indicators: earthquake emergency drill, knowledge publicity of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, acquisition of earthquake information, reliability of information released by earthquake agencies, and overall satisfaction. The results indicate that only 27.4% of public have participated the earthquake emergency drill, and 73.5% of public have learned some knowledge about earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in different level. It shows that rural residents have a lower level of scientific knowledge of earthquake disaster mitigation although the rural residents have a higher level of satisfaction. Meanwhile, 82.9% of the public are very concerned about earthquake-related information, and the earthquake information acquisition convenience score is 81.51 points(the full score is 100 points). At present, TV is still the most popular way to obtain the earthquake-related information, besides that, network and the new media app such as Wechat and Weibo play a more and more important role. In terms of the reliability of official information published by the earthquake administration, the score is 83.69 points which indicates that the public tend to believe in official departments. Furthermore, the degree of satisfaction evaluation of public service of earthquake disaster mitigation is marked 76.44 points which shows that there is still much room for improvement. The more educated the public, the less satisfied they are with the public service of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. The results also show that 51.81% of the public are willing to obtain earthquake warning information at their own expense. As for the demand, the most expectative services for the public are post-earthquake rescue and reconstruction, earthquake warning, and house earthquake resilience test. The results of the investigation may provide some reference for the government to provide better services of earthquake disaster mitigation and to make scientific knowledge popularization in a more scientific way.     

农业自然风险评估及区域农业保险费率的确定方法

根据农业自然灾害的时空分布规律,对于不同地域、不同作物在不同的生长季内所遭受的自然灾害,确定出作物受灾级别和损失程度,提出农业自然灾害损失率的计算和分区方法,并制定出区域农业保险费率的确定方法。其方法和结论可供其它区域开展类似保险项目研究和业务工作参考。     

江西省旱涝动态监测指标的设计

从地面水份平衡原理出发,在分析地面降水承载力和地面水份含量变化特征的基础上,讨论了湿润地区旱涝灾害的形成机制。运用WMO推荐的异常度指标和Bhalme－Mooley湿润度指标的基本原理,设计了一个洪涝灾害的动态监测指标。通过对地面水份含量变化特征方程的简化处理,设计了一个干旱动态监测指标。在实际业务工作中,这一旱涝动态监测指标能较好地反映旱涝灾害的发生、发展和解除过程。     

风暴潮灾害情景下海岸带暴露指数时空演变研究——以福建省东山湾为例

暴露指数反映了环境在面对极端天气事件时承受灾害的潜在风险程度。研究利用遥感影像数据、数字高程数据(DEM)、海洋水深及风力数据等, 基于暴露指数模型, 以福建省东山湾为案例研究区域, 对风暴潮灾害情景下的海岸带暴露指数及其时空演变进行分析。研究结果显示: (1)近十年来, 东山湾海岸带暴露指数总体呈下降趋势, 潜在风险程度为“中”及以上区域占比由67.14%下降至59.06%, 海岸带在面对风暴潮灾害等极端天气事件时潜在的风险程度总体降低, 海湾地貌类型差异及其形态变化是影响东山湾暴露指数产生波动的主要原因; (2)基于暴露指数评价结果, 结合海岸带开发利用现状, 研究可对东山湾海岸带生态环境的敏感区域进行识别, 并制定具有针对性的开发利用与风险防范对策, 为海岸带空间规划、生态保护修复格局的科学划定提供理论支撑, 在助力海岸带陆海统筹和可持续发展上具有重要意义; (3)研究提出的一种基于时间序列的暴露指数研究技术路线和框架, 可为海岸带脆弱性评估、海岸带韧性评估、海岸带灾害监测预警等相关研究提供新的研究视角, 在基于深度学习的海岸带灾害风险预警与灾害模拟等方面也具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

灰色关联度方法在大风和暴雨灾害损失评估中的应用

针对近20年北京地区发生的大风和暴雨灾害,应用灰色关联度方法,计算北京地区近20年的19个大风和暴雨灾例的灾情评估指标与关联度,进行损失评估和比较。结果表明,该方法对灾情等级划分和灾情损失排序是合理的,比较符合实际对灾情的评价,能够对不同气象灾害和同一级别的气象灾害灾情差异尺度做比较,是能够应用于实际工作中的一种科学方法。     

我国抗震防灾研究的发展及其作用

我国是一个地震灾害严重的国家之一。为抵御地震对人民生命财产和国家经济的破坏,使得抗震防灾研究显得尤为必要。本文主要从工程角度,简要介绍了我国抗震防灾研究的历史、现状、前沿问题及未来发展,并且阐述了抗震防灾研究在我国社会主义经济建设中的重要性。