大连市工业发展阶段判断及其结构调整

随着世界制造业中心向我国转移以及党中央关于东北老工业基地振兴战略的实施,大连市工业面临着难得的发展机遇.必须适时进行结构调整,从整体上提高其产业能级、辐射功能和国际竞争力.基于此,选取了轻重工业结构、人均GDP等一系列工业发展阶段的判断指标,通过比较分析,判定大连市工业的发展处于重工业化的中后期阶段,即加工工业阶段.针对工业所处阶段的特征和面临的问题,运用多指标分析方法,得出了石油化工业、装备制造业、服装工业、食品工业、电子信息业为大连市的五大主导产业,并据此提出了工业结构调整的具体建议.     

好莱坞电影产业集聚体的演进

好莱坞自20世纪初期以来,先后经历了电影产业浮现、好莱坞的黄金时代、好莱坞的转型时期以及“新好莱坞”四个阶段。这四个阶段,实际上由好莱坞电影制作的垂直一体化的形成、衰退以及垂直分离的发展等过程逐一演替。而自20世纪80年代好莱坞卫星生产地如温哥华的崛起,则展示了全球化时代好莱坞电影制作“核心”与“外围”的关系。好莱坞电影产业集聚体的演进,对我国文化产业的发展有如下启示：未来垂直分离是发展趋势、注重小企业的发展、区分合作与控制、注重创意中心的建设。     

边界积分方程用于电阻率Zohdy反演的初步研究

研究利用边界积分方程进行电阻率Ｚｏｈｄｙ反演的有关技术,结果表明在探测区域划分为数千个单元的情况下,为节省正、反演过程中所需要的计算机内存和 ＣＰＵ时间,可采取以下措施：（１）假定电位分块线性变化,可以使节点数目显著减少,这里每一块都包含若干个单元;（２）利用边界积分方程的特点,可事先计算并存储所有必要的边界积分值,供每一步迭代中调用;（３）利用边界积分方程所特有的数值延拓功能,可以进一步减少节点数目．为了说明这些手段的有效性,先给出了一个数值模拟成像结果,它清楚地表明基于边界积分方程的电阻率 Ｚｏｈｄｙ反演是快速而有效的,然后给出一个实测剖面的成像实例,成像结果经钻孔检验正确．     

云南省边境贸易的下滑原因及相关对策

本文主要分析近年来云南省边境贸易下滑的原因,并针对其下滑原因提出了发展边境贸易的对策。     

延津沙地草食畜饲养管理技术及发展模式探索

在对延津沙区引入的鲁西高腿有角小尾寒羊的饲养、管理和繁育技术试验基础上,探讨了集约化的养殖模式、发展模式和经营模式,并进行了乔灌草三结合的饲草料基地建设和粮经饲三元种植结构的尝试及饲草料加工的技术示范,为豫北沙区发展小尾寒羊的规模养殖和肉羊生产开辟了新的途径。     

Perspectives for implementing fisheries certification in developing countries

This paper discusses the future of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), a market-based certification program, in developing countries and exposes the challenges and opportunities for fish producers. The MSC needs to attract the interest of more fishing enterprises from these regions to increase its global presence. Because most fisheries in developing countries cannot meet the MSC standards, or afford the certification process costs, it is suggested that there is a need for developing different levels within the MSC system and additional third-party assessing organizations. MSC certification may mean adoption of improvements in fisheries management and approving fishing regimes in developing countries. However, post-certification benefits may decrease as more fisheries become certified.     

Marine protected areas in a welfare-based perspective

Assuming a broad set of fisheries management goals, this paper analyzes the implementation of a marine protected area (MPA) together with open access outside, applying a bioeconomic model that ensures unchanged growth post-MPA. Taking into account that conservation and restoration, food security, employment and social surplus are amongst the objectives that many managers include in fisheries management, it is found that this broader welfare economic approach to MPAs may well recommend them to a greater degree than espoused in the more common resource rent focused studies carried out to date. It is shown that for overfished stocks, an MPA may yield resource protection, maximize harvests and increase consumer and producer surplus, as well as give higher employment. This, however, is less apparent for moderately overfished as well as highly migratory stocks. Resource protection and enhancement implicitly improves ecosystem services.     

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during El Niño Developing Summer in Comparison with Decaying Summer

The anomalous behavior of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in El Niño developing summer is studied based on the composite results of eight major El Niño events during 1979-2013. It is shown that the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards with weak intensity during the developing summer. The anomaly exhibits an intraseasonal variation with a weaker anomaly in June and July and a stronger anomaly in August, indicating that different underlying physical mechanisms may be responsible for the anomalous WPSH during early and late summer periods. In June and July, owing to the cold advection anomaly characterized as a weak northerly anomaly from high latitudes, geopotential height in East Asia is reduced and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards slightly. By contrast, enhanced convection over the warm pool in August makes the atmosphere more sensitive to El Niño forcing. Consequently, a cyclonic anomaly in the western Pacific is induced, which is consistent with the seasonal march of atmospheric circulation from July to August. Accordingly, geopotential height in the western Pacific is reduced significantly, and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards remarkably in August. Different from the developing summer, geopotential height in the decaying summer over East Asia and the western Pacific tends to enhance and extend northwards from June to August consistently, reaching the maximum anomaly in August. Therefore, the seasonal march plays an important role in the WPSH anomaly for both the developing and decaying summer.     

ENSO发展和衰减阶段对云南夏季降水的影响研究

利用NCEP提供的大气再分析资料和云南122站降水资料分析了ENSO发展和衰减阶段对云南夏季降水异常的影响。结果发现：云南夏季降水异常分布对ENSO发展和衰减阶段的响应存在明显差异。处在发展阶段的El Ni?o事件会导致云南夏季大部分区域降水偏少；处在衰减阶段的El Ni?o事件会导致云南夏季降水呈现东少西多的分布；处在发展阶段的La Ni?a事件发会造成云南夏季大部分区域降水偏多，并且云南夏季降水异常对该阶段的响应最明显；处在衰减阶段的La Ni?a事件会造成云南夏季大部分区域降水偏少。通过合成分析发现：ENSO的发展和衰减阶段对夏季低纬度大气环流的影响存在显著差异，特别是对副热带高压和夏季风强弱的影响显著不同，从而导致云南夏季降水异常。值得一提的是，La Ni?a事件的发展阶段可作为影响云南夏季降水的一个强信号因子，应在短期气候预测中加以考虑。     

基于低场核磁共振的煤储层束缚水饱和度应力响应研究与动态预测——以保德和韩城区块为例

煤层气开发过程中储层应力的变化对束缚水饱和度有重要影响。通过对不同煤阶煤储层的煤样进行覆压低场核磁共振系列实验,采用谱图形态经验判定法对核磁T₂截止值进行标定,在此基础上分析了不同煤阶储层束缚水饱和度随应力的变化规律,并对保德和韩城区块的束缚水饱和度开展了动态计算。实验结果表明：束缚水饱和度具有较强的应力敏感性,并且在有效应力增加初期变化最为强烈;由于孔隙结构的差异,这种应力敏感性在保德区块表现得更为强烈。动态预测结果表明：由于保德区块储层埋深变化范围较小,其初始束缚水饱和度受埋深影响的总变化量小于韩城区块;埋深较浅的储层束缚水饱和度在开发过程中的应力敏感性更强,但开发过程进行到末期后,束缚水饱和度总的增加幅度基本一致。