地震动力学与板块构造:地震灾害评估

作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。     

某电站大型地下洞室群主变洞确定性块体稳定性评价

以黄河上游某大型电站地下洞室群主变洞为例,通过在AutoCAD软件中建立洞室与结构面的三维实体模型,借助自编程序切割,展示这些结构面在主变洞边墙及拱顶的出露情况,在此基础上检索出组合块体21个,最后对这21个块体进行了确定性块体稳定性评价,给出其在主变洞上下游边墙及拱顶的块体组合情况、滑动方式、出露桩号和高度、出露面积、分布深度、体积、稳定性系数等。     

Reservoir associated characteristics using deterministic chaos in Aswan,Nurek and Koyna reservoirs

Nurek, Aswan and Koyna reservoirs were affected by moderate earthquakes with continuing seismic activity. Microearthquake data recorded through local networks have been used to determine the strange attractor dimensions, using deterministic chaos which were found as 7,2, 3.8 and 4.8, respectively. This would imply that while 8 parameters are needed to model earthquakes near Nurek reservoir, only 4 to 5 parameters are needed for the Aswan and Koyna regions. The differences in the strange attractor dimension suggest them to be a measure of seismotectonics around such reservoirs.     

WRF-EnKF系统对中国南方一次暴雨过程确定性预报的试验

文章利用美国宾州州立大学的WRF EnKF(Ensemble Kalman Filter)实时预报系统(Real time Penn State WRF EnKF System),针对2013年5月15—16日发生在中国南方的暴雨过程进行了数值预报试验,以初步检验该系统对我国南方降水确定性预报的效果。数值试验采用2013年5月14日08时（北京时）起报的6 h间隔的1°×1° NCEP GFS (globle forecast system) 60 h预报数据（预报到5月16日20时）作为初始条件和边界条件。其中,控制试验不同化任何观测资料,同化试验通过集合卡尔曼滤波方法同化常规探空资料,分别进行确定性预报。结果表明：利用WRF EnKF系统同化常规探空资料,显著改善了数值预报的初始场,减小了各物理量的预报偏差和预报均方根误差,进而提高了此次暴雨过程的降水落区和强度的预报准确率。     

洞庭湖和鄱阳湖水体细菌空间分布特征及驱动机制

为了探讨洞庭湖和鄱阳湖水体细菌的群落组成、空间分布特征及其驱动机制,于2017年9月,采用高通量测序技术、基于16S rRNA分子标记进行单分子测序,分别对两湖共57个位点的水体细菌群落组成进行了研究,同步监测了水体的理化指标。结果表明：洞庭湖和鄱阳湖共发现水体细菌20门42纲93目191科533属,在门水平上,洞庭湖和鄱阳湖的水体细菌组成均以放线菌门、蓝细菌门和变形菌门为主;主成分分析结果表明,两湖水环境条件有显著性差异,鄱阳湖的空间差异性大于洞庭湖;Mantel分析表明显著影响蓝细菌类群和其他类群组成的因素较为一致,在洞庭湖以物理环境因子和营养盐因子为主,而鄱阳湖以物理环境因子为主;零模型分析结果显示随机性过程为两湖水体细菌的群落构建机制的主要成分,占比分别为58.8%和79.7%。总体来说,鄱阳湖水环境空间异质性更高,水体细菌受到一些水文水动力学因子介导的物理环境因子影响,且其群落构建机制由随机性过程主导;洞庭湖水环境空间异质性较低,水体细菌受到物理环境因子和营养盐因子的共同影响,其群落构建机制由随机性过程和确定性过程共同决定。认识两湖水体细菌在空间上的分布及影响因素差异,对两湖...     

结构损伤识别方法研究综述

对工程结构进行损伤识别与检测,可以发现结构损伤位置,评估损伤程度,为结构加固与修复提供依据,从而保证工程结构正常运行,进而保护人们生命财产安全,因此结构损伤识别方法研究一直是土木工程领域重要研究课题。结构损伤识别方法总体上分为确定性方法和不确定性方法,相比于确定性方法,不确定性方法考虑了识别过程中不确定因素的影响,成为目前损伤识别领域的研究热点。本文回顾了确定性方法和不确定性方法发展历程,阐述了几种常见的损伤识别方法及其优缺点,并根据国内外研究现状对结构损伤识别方法发展进行了展望,可供损伤识别方法研究与应用参考。     

AN APPROACH TOWARDS DETERMINISTIC LANDSLIDE HAZARD ANALYSIS IN GIS. A CASE STUDY FROM MANIZALES (COLOMBIA)

A one-dimensional deterministic slope stability model (infinite slope model) was used to calculate average safety factors and failure probabilities for the city of Manizales, in central Colombia. An engineering geological data base has been created on the basis of a series of parameter maps (geology, geomorphology, Digital terrain models and slope classes), using logic reasoning in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A two-dimensional hydrological model was applied to estimate groundwater levels in relation to rainfall events. A simple method for the calculation of horizontal seismic acceleration was used for different earthquake events. To calculate average safety factors a number of scenarios were developed, by combining the effects of groundwater and seismic acceleration with different return periods. A simple method for error propagation was used to calculate the variance of the safety factor, and the probability that it will be less than 1, for each pixel, within a time period of 20 years. The highest probability value of the various scenarios was selected for each pixel, and a final hazard map for translational landslides was constructed. The results presented here are a first approach towards a deterministic landslide hazard analysis using GIS. It has a number of drawbacks, which should be solved in future work.     

Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria

Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.     

Assessing the threat to Western Australia from tsunami generated by earthquakes along the Sunda Arc

A suite of tsunami spaced evenly along the subduction zone to the south of Indonesia (the Sunda Arc) were numerically modelled in order to make a preliminary estimate of the level of threat faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Arc. Offshore wave heights from these tsunami were predicted to be significantly higher along the northern part of the west Australian coast than for the rest of the coast south of the town of Exmouth. In particular, the area around Exmouth may face a higher tsunami hazard than other areas of the West Australian coast nearby. Large earthquakes offshore of Java and Sumbawa are likely to be a greater hazard to WA than those offshore of Sumatra. Our numerical models indicate that a magnitude 9 or above earthquake along the eastern part of the Sunda Arc has the potential to significantly impact a large part of the West Australian coastline. The Australian government reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free license in and to any copyright.