The New Seismic Zonation Map for the Territory of Armenia

In the present work a new, deterministic, seismic zonation map for the territory of Armenia is presented. It has been compiled on the basis of the newest seismological, geological and geophisical data. Creation of the map included: determination of a seismic hazard area for the territory of Armenia; compilation of a map of active faults; identification of active blocks; identification of seismic source zones; calculation of a seismic effect from the seismic source zones (SSZs). Seismic effect on the Earth's surface from the singled out SSZs is calculated in the form of an intensity of seismic influences expressed in units of MSK-64 scale, and horizontal soil accelerations expressed in fractions of gravity force acceleration (g). The map compiled will allow comparison between the deterministic model with a probabilistic seismic zonation model for the territory of Armenia (in preparation), in order to analyze the western and eastern standards of seismic hazard assessment on the basis of the same complete data base.     

Is there an attractor for the Indian summer monsoon?

Aperiodicity in the time series of Indian summer rainfall for 116 years is analysed using the phase space approach. The question whether a low-dimensional strange attractor is associated with the chaotic behaviour of the monsoon system is investigated. It is found that a strange attractor of dimensionality around 5·1 exists and the system has 12 relevant degrees of freedom.     

地面气象要素多模式集成预报研究进展

目前,集合预报已成为天气预报业务的主要支撑。然而,由于数值模式本身的限制与不完善以及集合系统存在初值扰动、集合大小等方面的局限,常存在预报偏差。不同预报模式通常具有不同的物理过程参数化方案、初始条件等,导致其预报能力各有不同。为此,如何纠正预报偏差以及如何充分有效地利用不同模式的预报信息以获得更加准确的天气预报广受关注。近年来,利用统计理论与预报诊断,基于多个集合预报系统的多模式集成预报技术得到快速发展,已成为有效消除预报偏差从而提高天气预报技巧的一种统计后处理方法。针对气温、降水和风3个最基本的地面气象要素,首先依据预报形式将应用范围较广的简单集合平均、消除偏差集合平均、超级集合、贝叶斯模式平均、集合模式输出统计等加权或等权平均多模式集成技术,分成确定性预报和概率预报两大类,并做系统介绍。最后,讨论使用和发展多模式集成技术需要关注的问题,包括考虑参与集成的模式个数、发展降水及风速分级预报模型和发展基于机器学习的多模式集成新技术。     

两种确定性初值形成方案对集合预报技巧的影响研究

为了进一步提高GRAPES-REPS的降水预报性能,将GRAPES-Meso业务模式的高分辨率同化分析初值通过动力升尺度方法(简称GRAPES-M-US方案)产生GRAPES-REPS确定性初值,在此基础上进行了连续10 d的集合预报试验,并与基于T639全球模式同化分析初值动力降尺度方案(简称T639-G-DS方案)得到的确定性初值以及相应的集合预报结果进行了对比分析及预报检验,重点关注了降水预报的检验结果。结果表明:基于GRAPES-M-US方案得到的确定性初值相对于T639-G-DS方案得到的确定性初值而言,在低层具备更多的中小尺度信息;低层连续性变量预报表现较好,850 hPa的位势高度和温度的均方根误差以及概率预报评分(CRPS)均表现出了一定的改进效果,而中层和高层要素改进不显著,10 m风速均方根误差和CRPS均有较明显的改进效果,2 m温度均方根误差和CRPS则基本相当;对降水预报而言,24 h预报时效的小雨、中雨和大雨量级的TS评分、Brier评分和相对作用特征面积(AROC)均有一定的改进,其余预报时效总体而言基本相当或略有负效果;在2017年8月7日的强降水个例中,对强降水落区和强度的预报表现出了一定的"细化"和"纠偏"效果;总体而言,GRAPES-M-US方案较T639-G-DS方案表现出了一定的优势,特别是在短期降水预报方面。     

Damage assessment through structural identification of a three‐story large‐scale precast concrete structure

This paper investigates the damage assessment of a three‐story half‐scale precast concrete building resembling a parking garage through structural identification. The structure was tested under earthquake‐type loading on the NEES large high‐performance outdoor shake table at the University of California San Diego in 2008. The tests provide a unique opportunity to capture the dynamic performance of precast concrete structures built under realistic boundary conditions. The effective modal parameters of the structure at different damage states have been identified from white‐noise and scaled earthquake test data with the assumption that the structure responded in a quasi‐linear manner. Modal identification has been performed using the deterministic‐stochastic subspace identification method based on the measured input–output data. The changes in the identified modal parameters are correlated to the observed damage. In general, the natural frequencies decrease, and the damping ratios increase as the structure is exposed to larger base excitations, indicating loss of stiffness, development/propagation of cracks, and failure in joint connections. The analysis of the modal rotations and curvatures allowed the localization of shear and flexural damages respectively and the checking of the effectiveness of repair actions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion modelling with a stochastically perturbed excitation

We present a new hybrid method combining deterministic and stochastic features. The aim is to describe the crustal propagation better than deterministic or stochastic methods can do separately. We start from the deterministic hybrid method based on Discrete- Wavenumber and Finite-Difference techniques (DW–FD). First we modify the DW–FD procedure by introducing topographical variations and a spatially varying Q factor. Then, to take into account effects due to small-scale heterogeneities of the crust, we add a stochastic noise (perturbation) to the deterministic signal propagated through the crust. The stochastic noise is constructed using a kind of Markov-like process generator with two physical constraints: to have the Brune spectrum, and to reproduce the spatial decay of coherence reported in literature for real sites. We have chosen a Markov-like technique because it allows us to get stochastic noise, with the given coherence spatial decay, directly in time domain. This new hybrid method is applied in a numerical test, the parameters of which approximate the case of the 12 June, 1995 Rome earthquake. It is found that the coherence decay with distance at the alluvial valley surface is slower than the prescribed coherence decay inside the bedrock.     

大型浅水湖泊中浮游细菌群落的空间格局及其驱动机制——以太湖为例

浮游细菌在驱动湖泊物质循环、指示湖泊水环境质量等方面发挥重要作用,探明其在湖泊中的空间分布格局及其驱动机制,是揭示湖泊物质循环过程及水环境状况的关键。浅水湖泊具有水动力扰动强烈的生境特点,其中的浮游细菌群落空间格局的形成机制尚未明晰。本研究以大型浅水湖泊——太湖为研究对象,通过对全湖开展系统的野外调查,结合高通量测序技术、多元统计分析方法及生态学模型构建,系统探明太湖浮游细菌的空间分布格局,并揭示格局形成的驱动机制。结果显示：（1）太湖西北部湖区（藻型湖区）与东南部湖区（草型湖区）之间浮游细菌群落结构存在显著差异,而这两个区域内各湖区间及湖心区与周边湖区间之间的浮游细菌群落结构差异不显著,太湖浮游细菌群落结构整体上呈现较弱的距离衰减规律;（2）太湖草、藻型湖区及湖心区中浮游细菌群落结构分别与叶绿素a、透明度及总悬浮物显著相关,总体上环境变量对太湖浮游细菌群落空间格局的相对贡献率大于空间变量;（3）尽管确定性过程中的异质化选择、随机过程中的非主导性过程以及扩散限制对太湖浮游细菌空间格局的形成均产生重要影响,但总体上随机过程对格局形成的相对贡献更大;（4）太湖无序风场驱动的水力混合作用导致...     

EnKF集合同化下黄海海雾数值确定性预报初始场构造方法的探究

在黄海海雾的数值模拟中,EnKF（ensemble Kalman filter）是一种优于3DVAR（three-dimensional variational）的数据同化方法。研究发现,对EnKF初始场集合体采取常用的集合平均所产生的确定性预报初始场,会出现初始场中海雾在预报开始后就迅速消失以及接下来海雾难以生成的异常现象。通过详细的海雾个例研究,清晰地揭示并解释了此现象,指出这是集合平均造成初始场中云水与温度湿度之间存在不协调关系所导致的后果,并提出了一种择优加权平均方法来取代常用的集合平均。研究结果表明,海雾确定性预报采用择优加权平均所构建的初始场,可以消除上述异常现象,显著改进海雾模拟效果。     

融合物理理解与模糊逻辑的分类强对流客观短期预报系统:（2）表现评估

本文对分类强对流客观短期概率预报系统2022年6月13日强对流过程预报产品的表现进行分析,基于2022年的雷暴、短时强降水、雷暴大风及冰雹客观概率预报产品和可用的分类强对流监测实况资料,结合强对流预报业务中使用的空间检验方法和常用的确定性及概率性检验指标,对该短期预报系统提供的四类强对流天气客观概率预报产品进行了详细的性能评估。用于评估的预报资料是时段为2022年4月1日至9月30日每天08时(北京时)起报,96 h内逐12 h间隔的预报产品。预报个例分析显示,四类产品均可提前24 h指示需要关注的强对流天气区域。统计检验结果表明,短时强降水各方面性能最好,其次是雷暴,雷暴大风也有一定的可参考性。四类强对流天气预报产品均存在预报概率与实况频率相比偏高的过度预报问题。雷暴、短时强降水和雷暴大风预报产品均存在与预报覆盖时效有关的日变化。评估结果为预报模型和系统后续改进发展奠定了基础,为应用基于融合物理理解与模糊逻辑人工智能方法的分类强对流预报产品提供了有益参考。