Is correlation dimension a reliable proxy for the number of dominant influencing variables for modeling risk of arsenic contamination in groundwater?

The correlation dimension (CD) of a time series provides information on the number of dominant variables present in the evolution of the underlying system dynamics. In this study, we explore, using logistic regression (LR), possible physical connections between the CD and the mathematical modeling of risk of arsenic contamination in groundwater. Our database comprises a large-scale arsenic survey conducted in Bangladesh. Following the recommendation by Hossain and Sivakumar (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 20(1–2):66–76, 2006), who reported CD values ranging from 8 to 11 for this database, 11 variables are considered herein as indicators of the aquifer’s geochemical regime with potential influence on the arsenic concentration in groundwater. A total of 2,048 possible combinations of influencing variables are considered as candidate LR risk models to delineate the impact of the number of variables on the prediction accuracy of the model. We find that the uncertainty associated with prediction of wells as safe and unsafe by LR risk model declines systematically as the total number of influencing variables increases from 7 to 11. The sensitivity of the mean predictive performance also increases noticeably for this range. The consistent reduction in predictive uncertainty coupled with the increased sensitivity of the mean predictive behavior within the universal sample space exemplify the ability of CD to function as a proxy for the number of dominant influencing variables. Such a rapid proxy, based on non-linear dynamic concepts, appears to have considerable merit for application in current management strategies on arsenic contamination in developing countries, where both time and resources are very limited.     

Transition to two-dimensional turbulent convection in a rapidly-rotating annulus

Abstract

We study a semi-analytical model of convection in a rapidly-rotating, differentially-heated annulus with sloping top and bottom lids. Rapid rotation leads to a preservation of relatively simple, two-dimensional (2-D) structure in the experimentally-observed flow, while temporal complexity increases with the Rayleigh number. The model is, therefore, two-dimensional; it exhibits a sequence of bifurcations from steadily-drifting, azimuthally-periodic convection columns, also called thermal Rossby waves, through vacillation and a period-doubling cascade, to aperiodic, weakly-turbulent solutions.

Our semi-analytical results match to within a few percent previous numerical results with a limited-resolution 2-D model, and extend these results, due to the greater flexibility of the model presented here. Two types of vacillation are obtained, which we call, by analogy with classical nomenclature of the baroclinic annulus with moderate rotation rates, amplitude vacillation and tilted-trough vacillation. Their properties and dependence on the problem's nondimensional parameters are investigated. The period-doubling cascade for each type of vacillation is studied in some detail.     

集合海浪预报的发展与应用回顾

总结了国内外集合海浪预报的发展及应用现状,现有集合海浪预报的方法及优缺点。以NOAA/NCEP机构为例,给出了集合海浪主流预报产品的种类,通过集合预报产品的分析可以看出,集合海浪预报能够将传统的确定性预报扩展至概率预报领域,可给出更多可能出现的未来状态,能提供单纯确定性预报所不能提供的额外信息,已成为国际上业务化海洋学未来发展的重要方向之一。     

A deterministic river temperature model to prioritize management of riparian woodlands to reduce summer maximum river temperatures

Increasing river temperatures are a threat to cold water species including ecologically and economically important freshwater fish, such as Atlantic salmon. In 2018, ca. 70% of Scottish rivers experienced temperatures which cause thermal stress in juvenile salmon, a situation expected to become increasingly common under climate change. Management of riparian woodlands is proven to protect cold water habitats. However, creation of new riparian woodlands can be costly and logistically challenging. It is therefore important that planting can be prioritized to areas where it is most needed and can be most effective in reducing river temperatures. The effects of riparian woodland on channel shading depend on complex interactions between channel width, orientation, aspect, gradient, tree height and solar geometry. Subsequent effects on river temperature are influenced by water volume and residence time. This study developed a deterministic river temperature model, driven by energy gains from solar radiation that are modified by water volume and residence time. The resulting output is a planting prioritization metric that compares potential warming between scenarios with and without riparian woodland. The prioritization metric has a reach scale spatial resolution, but can be mapped at large spatial scales using information obtained from a digital river network. The results indicate that water volume and residence time, as represented by river order, are a dominant control on the effectiveness of riparian woodland in reducing river temperature. Ignoring these effects could result in a sub-optimal prioritization process and inappropriate resource allocation. Within river order, effectiveness of riparian shading depends on interactions between channel and landscape characteristics. Given the complexity and interacting nature of controls, the use of simple universal planting criteria is not appropriate. Instead, managers should be provided with maps that translate complex models into readily useable tools to prioritize riparian tree planting to mitigate the impacts of high river temperatures.     

边坡可靠度分析的一种新的优化求解方法

介绍了Low & Tang提出的一种新的可靠度优化求解方法,并将之用于边坡可靠度分析中：该方法适用于任何概率分布的相关变量,不必计算当量正态均值和方差、相关变量独立变换,直接在变量的原始空间内搜索边坡的最小可靠指标和概率临界滑面,可采用任何合适的约束优化方法进行求解,方法清晰简洁。边坡可靠度分析常用的滑面有2个：最小安全系数（变量均值处）对应的确定性临界滑面和最小可靠指标对应的概率临界滑面,但这2个滑面在有些情况下差别较大,Hassan & Wolff提出了一种简化方法可以方便地获得概率临界滑面,但由于方法简单,受到质疑。通过一系列算例分析,优化求解方法得到的概率临界滑面和Hassan & Wolff的简化方法滑面非常接近,显示了简化方法的有效性,值得在工程实践中推广。     

气候变化对媒介传播性疾病传播影响的评估模型

旨在综述评估各类模型在媒介传播性疾病中的应用前景。首先对媒介传播性疾病的流行及其与气候特征间的相关关系进行了分析,在此基础上综述了评估模型的种类与评估方法,包括气候因子决定性模型和数理统计学模型两大类,并分别以疟疾、血吸虫病和登革热等3种媒介传播性疾病为例,列举了两类模型在这些疾病中的应用与评估方法。最后提出了气候变化对媒介传播性疾病传播影响的未来研究方向和重点, 今后研究要评估气候变化对疾病传播造成的已有影响,预测未来影响范围与强度及预见未来变局,并提出科学的适应对策。     

以剪切波速与地表峰值加速度为依据的地震液化确定性及概率判别法

剪切波速作为土性的基本参数,为评价土体抵抗地震液化的能力提供了一种方法。回顾了以剪切波速和地表峰值加速度为依据的场地地震液化判别方法的演化历史,依据他人收集的现场液化资料,合计49次地震、618例液化/不液化场地数据,提出了确定液化临界曲线的基本原则,给出了基于修正剪切波速与地表峰值加速度的液化临界曲线,验证了液化临界曲线的位置对细粒含量、有效上覆压力、震级等因素取值变化的合理性,分析了估计土层循环应力比CSR的剪应力折减系数、震级标定系数、有效上覆压力修正系数等因素的不确定性对液化临界曲线的敏感性。结果表明：液化临界曲线对各种影响因素具有很好的适用性。利用Monte Carlo模拟、加权最大似然法和加权经验概率法,给出了建议的液化临界曲线的名义抗液化安全系数与液化概率的经验关系式及概率等值线,并对核电厂Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类抗震物项地基,分别建议了相应的液化临界曲线。该方法以丰富的现场液化数据为依据,具有广泛的应用前景。     

The deterministic side of geostatistics

The probabilistic approach is but one language used by geostatisticians to characterize spatial variability and to express a very simple criterion for goodness of estimation. Notions such as stationarity and ergodicity are important for the consistency of the probabilistic language but are irrelevant to the real problem, that of estimating a well-defined deterministic spatial average. The kriging algorithm is established without any recourse to probabilistic modeling or notation.     

Estimating Injury and Loss of Life in Floods: A Deterministic Framework

This paper presents an outline methodology and an operational framework for assessing and mapping the risk of death or serious harm to people from flooding, covering death and physical injuries as a direct and immediate consequence of deep and/or fast flowing floodwaters (usually by drowning), and deaths and physical injuries associated with the flood event (but occurring in the immediate aftermath). The main factors that affect death or injury to people during floods include flow velocity, flow depth, and the degree to which people are exposed to the flood. The exposure potential is related to such factors as the “suddenness” of flooding (and amount of flood warning), the extent of the floodplain, people’s location on the floodplain, and the character of their accommodation. In addition, risks to people are affected by social factors including their vulnerability and behaviour. A methodology is described for estimating the likely annual number of deaths/injuries. This is based on defining zones of different flood hazard and, for each zone, estimating the total number of people located there, the proportion that are likely to be exposed to a flood, and the proportion of those exposed who are likely to be injured or killed during a flood event. The results for each zone are combined to give an overall risk for each flood cell and/or community. The objective of the research reported here is to develop a method which could be applied using a map-based approach in which flood risks to people are calculated and displayed spatially for selected areas or communities. The information needed for each part of the process is described in the paper, and the further research to provide the required information is identified.