广东省统一深度基准项目的设计研究

根据对广东省现有长期验潮站数量、分布以及水位数据情况的分析,确立了在已有长期验潮站的基础上,采用适当布设短期验潮站的方式,对长期验潮站进行加密补充;建立海区调和常数变化模型,并结合水深数据、卫星测高数据,构建海洋潮汐模型;最终建立深度基准模型的总体设计思路。广东省统一深度基准的建立,可实现深度基准面1985高程模型的构建,相邻测区间水深成果的无缝拼接,沿海水深成果与陆地地形成果的相互转换,GNSS技术下的水深测量(无验潮模式)以及对沿海范围内海岸线和海岛岸线的精确推算。     

地基微波辐射计遥感人工触发闪电的观测研究

为了深入研究雷电产生的微波热辐射特征,从2016年初夏开始利用地基微波辐射计在中国气象局雷电野外科学实验基地开展了连续4年的观测实验,根据雷电热效应的特征,制定了观测方案,并为地基微波辐射计设置了“引雷观测模式”。结果表明,地基微波辐射计具有对雷电热效应产生响应的能力。2017—2019年,辐射计一共成功捕获了30次人工触发闪电,观测效率逐年增长,平均为71.4 %;微波亮温脉冲幅度的最大值约125 K。结合其中28次触发事件的雷电流数据,分析了亮温脉冲幅度和雷电流积分量之间的相关性,并发现了最大亮温脉冲幅度与总电流作用积分之间可能存在指数关系。根据亮温观测数据估算了雷电热效应的持续时间,平均约0.5 s,其中25次触发事件的雷电流热效应持续时间与雷电流持续时间变化较为一致,相关系数约0.73。     

青海省海东地区土地利用变化及其生态服务价值响应

根据青海省海东地区2002～2008年土地利用变更数据,采用土地利用动态度模型和土地利用综合指数分析该地区近7年来土地利用变化情况,并参考谢高地等人建立的中国陆地生态系统单位面积生态服务价值当量表对该区域当量表进行适当调整,测算了土地利用变化所引起的生态服务价值变化情况。研究表明：（1）2002～2008年,各类型土地利用变化速度各不相同,其中以水利设施用地变化速度最快为12．24％,土地利用程度波动上升;（2）土地利用变化所引起的生态服务价值总体上呈逐步上升趋势,由2002年的82．01×10^8元增加至2008年的88．16×10^8元,增加了6．15×10^8元;（3）各种土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值的敏感性指数均小于1,表明生态系统服务价值对价值系数的变化缺乏弹性,研究结果可信。     

基于FCD数据的城市有效路网密度评价——以广州荔湾区和越秀区为例

提出一种基于FCD数据的城市有效路网密度的评价方法,主要是从城市路网的静态布局结构和动态交通流量两个方面对城市路网数据以及FCD数据进行核密度估计分析,得到城市有效路网密度等级的分布特征,继而通过理论与实际道路网密度等级差异对比分析,发现路网中差异区域,为城市路网规划提供可靠的依据。以广州市中心城区越秀、荔湾内的主要路网数据以及2010年五一期间中心城区内出租车的FCD数据为例,利用上述评价方法进行分析得出以下结论:区域内人民中路、人民南路、白云路、中山六路和中山七路路段的理论与实际密度等级差异性明显,表现为路段上密度核的数量与核影响范围差异大,其中尤为突出的是人民中路和人民南路,从理论有效路网密度的分析角度,两个路段都是高密度区域,与实际交通流量存在较大的密度分异。     

基于能量平衡的蒸散发遥感反演模型研究

提出了基于能量平衡方法遥感反演蒸散发的计算模型。采用经验、半经验公式反演计算了模型中各参数。利用提出的净辐射折算系数、波文比,结合Sequin和Itier理论推导了日蒸散发量计算的经验模型,并考虑了温度对瞬时蒸散发量的的影响,提高了全天蒸散发量计算的精度。对于不同地区只要调整净辐射折算系数便可解决由蒸散发瞬时值求算全天值的困难。通过对黑龙江省进行数值试验,证明该模型具有很强的实用性,并且可为旱情监测系统运行提供依据。     

Pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation of masonry buildings

A pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation methodology for masonry buildings is introduced. It enables estimation of loss by various performance measures such as the probability of exceeding a designated economic loss, the expected annual loss, and the expected loss given a seismic intensity. The methodology enables the estimation of the economic loss directly from the results of structural analysis, which combines pushover analysis and incremental dynamic analysis of an equivalent SDOF model. The use of the methodology is demonstrated by means of two variants of a three-storey masonry building both of which have the same geometry, but they are built, respectively, from hollow clay masonry (model H) and solid brick masonry (model S). The probability of collapse given the selected design earthquake corresponding to a return period of 475 years was found to be negligible for model H, which indicates the proper behaviour of such a structure when designed according to the current building codes. However, the corresponding probability of collapse of model S was very high (46%). The expected total loss given the design earthquake was estimated to amount to 28 000 € and 290 000 €, respectively, for models H and S. The expected annual loss per 100 m² of gross floor area was estimated to amount to 75 € and 191 €, respectively, for models H and S. For the presented examples, it was also observed that nonstructural elements contributed more than 50% of the total loss.     

基于验后方差估计的稳健整体最小二乘方法

根据整体最小二乘的验后方差估计,求出观测值的验后方差,通过方差检验可找出方差异常大的观测值。然后根据经典权与观测值方差成反比的定义赋予它一个相应小的权进行下一步迭代平差,逐步实现粗差定位。通过坐标转换实验,利用一般最小二乘法(LS)、加权整体最小二乘法(WTLS)以及文中提出的稳健整体最小二乘法(RTLS)分别对待估参数进行求解对比,解算结果表明文中提出的方法能对粗差进行有效的定位,且估计量受粗差影响较小,具有稳健性,估算效果优于其它两种方法。     

GPS网平差中的稳健估计

GPS网平差利用三维基线向量为观测值,与常规的粗差探测不同,根据RECO法基本原理,以GPS网为例,说明RECO法在GPS网平差中粗差探测中的优越性,得出一些有益的结论。     

密度权稳健估计

利用观测量分布函数作为权函数的计算公式,分析了密度权法的抗差性和收敛速率,证实了用密度权法处理含粗差数据是行之有效的。     

Recommended Values of 239Pu, 240Pu and 239+240Pu Concentrations in Reference Material IAEA-315 (Marine Sediment) Estimated by Thermal Ionisation Mass Spectrometry, Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry and Alpha Spectrometry

The recommended concentrations of ²³⁹Pu, ²⁴⁰Pu and ^239+240Pu in reference material IAEA‐315 (marine sediment) were estimated by three analytical methods: isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS), isotope dilution inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (ICP‐MS) and alpha spectrometry. The determination of ²³⁹Pu and ²⁴⁰Pu (^239+240Pu by alpha spectrometry) was carried out with samples from randomly selected bottles using each method. Plutonium‐238 was also measured by alpha spectrometry. A plutonium‐242 reference material was used as a spike for the quantitative analysis. The influence of ²⁴²Pu in the samples was therefore calculated; however, this contribution was less than the range of uncertainty and did not influence the final results. The obtained data were statistically analysed using variance component analysis and paired comparison. The combined standard uncertainties from “method/measurement”, “bottle” and “sub‐sample” were in the order of 3 to 6%. The main contributions to the uncertainty were from the material heterogeneity and from systematic differences between methods. Based on this study with twenty‐seven analyses using 10–14 g sample mass, concentrations of (38 ± 3) Bq kg^?1, (28 ± 3) Bq kg^?1 and (66 ± 4) Bq kg^?1 are proposed as recommended values for ²³⁹Pu, ²⁴⁰Pu and ^239+240Pu, respectively, and (9.5 ± 0.4) Bq kg^?1 for ²³⁸Pu as an information value in reference material IAEA‐315. In mass concentration units, these amount to (16.4 ± 1.2) ng kg^?1, (3.3 ± 0.4) ng kg^?1 and (0.015 ± 0.003) ng kg^?1 for ²³⁹Pu, ²⁴⁰Pu and ²³⁸Pu, respectively. The certified reference materials NIST 4350B and NIST 4354 were also analysed by TIMS for quality assurance of the method used in this study.