A relationship between solar activity and frequency of natural disasters in China

The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau,but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.     

川滇地区地震活动单键群分析

利用单键群（即ＳＬＣ）分析方法,通过有关ＳＬＣ特征参量的时间滑移分析,结合１９７０年以来的区域地震活动和构造环境,分析了川滇西部地区的地震活动。较之７０年代和８０年代,９０年代的地震活动在总体上是处于中等强度的活动水平。文章认为,ＳＬＣ方法考虑了地震事件的时空关联性,可以用来分析地震活动趋势,是研究地震活动性的有用工具。     

西昆仑卡日巴生岩体和苦子干岩体的隆升：来自磷灰石裂变径迹分析的证据

笔者对采自青藏高原西北部塔什库尔干县城西侧卡日巴生花岗岩体和苦子干碱性花岗岩体的7个不同高程的样品进行了磷灰石裂变径迹年龄和径迹长度的测试分析。结果表明,自5Ma以来,这一地区经历了脉动式的,总体由缓慢到快速的隆升过程。通过“径迹年龄—高程”法等计算的隆升速率表明,5～2Ma隆升速率为0.1mm/a±;2Ma后,隆升速率增至2mm/a±。同时对样品进行了径迹长度的分析,表明5Ma以来的隆升并不是一个持续抬升过程,存在着相对稳定的阶段,总体表现为一脉动式隆升。并结合区域地质资料分析,认为早期的隆升与印度板块与欧亚大陆的碰撞挤压有关,2Ma后的隆升是由青藏高原内部热均衡调整造成的。所测试的样品中,6个样品的磷灰石裂变径迹年龄在2.14～5.19Ma,显示出随着样品高程的增加,裂变径迹年龄增大的规律。而其中一个样品的单颗粒径迹年龄较为分散,揭示了早期与隆升有关的热历史的信息。     

Estimation of Sensible Heat Flux from Surface Temperature Wave and One-Time-of-Day Air Temperature Observation

By means of the algorithm presented here, the temporal course H(t) and the daily mean H¯ of the sensible heat flux H can be estimated from measurements of the thermodynamic surface temperature (as a function of time) and from a one-time-of-day air temperature observation. In addition to these temperatures, one needs estimates for daily mean wind speed, for the roughness lengths of momentum and heat transfer, and for the displacement height. First, a quite general solution of the equation for heat conductance (equation for the vertical profile of potential temperature (z,t)) in the dynamic sublayer will be presented. The undetermined parameters in this solution will be defined with the aid of the above mentioned measurements. The influence of horizontal advection will be taken into account. After that, the sensible heat flux can be evaluated from the temperature difference between surface and air with the well known resistance formulae. In this paper the algorithm is derived for areas with homogeneous surfaces, i.e., with uniform surface temperatures. Finally, the method will be verified by measurements taken during the field campaigns HIBE 89 (Hildesheimer Börde in Germany) and EFEDA 91 (Spain). The root mean square errors (RMSE) for the comparison between measurement and model with regard to the temperature difference of surface and air amount to one or two degrees Kelvin, and the error of H¯ reaches 10 to 25 per cent. The method can be used to determine the sensible heat flux from measurements of surface temperatures by satellites (e.g., METEOSAT), but can also be applied to ground based measurements. For instance, horizontal temperature advection can be estimated from measurements at a single location, especially if more than one near-surface air temperature is available. The procedure can be generalized for larger areas, which consist of various surface types with different surface temperatures. This generalization of the algorithm is in progress and will be addressed in a subsequent paper. It will allow us to improve the estimates for H(t) by means of temperature measurements from, e.g., NOAA/AVHRR or LANDSAT/TM, taking into account the heterogeneity of the area that is contained in one METEOSAT pixel.     

基于加速器控制网的GPS绝对测量精度探讨

针对当前散裂中子源准直测量控制网空间距离大、绝对精度要求高,常规测量难以满足需要的问题,提出采用不受通视限制、高精度的GPS测量解决,通过GPS在“标准检测场”准直实验,计算分析后处理软件、观测仪器及观测时长对GPS绝对测量精度的影响,结果表明,1km的测区范围,商业软件解算结果优于科研软件,且商业软件中TTC解算精度最高;分体机比一体机观测精度更高,但随观测时长增长,二者精度相当;观测时长超过8小时以上,基线值将趋于稳定。     

1973-2018年青海湖岸线动态变化

青海湖独特的地理位置使得其不仅对环湖周边区域气候起着天然调节器的作用,而且还拥有丰富的湖岸线资源,准确、及时地掌握青海湖岸线动态变化对保护沿湖生态环境有重要意义.因此本文基于1973-2018年Landsat MSS/TM/OLI遥感影像和1961-2017年实测水位资料,对青海湖岸线动态变化及对鸟类栖息地的影响进行研究,同时结合面积、水位及气象数据讨论了影响岸线变化的主要因素.研究表明：1）近45年来青海湖岸线发生变化最大的区域是东岸的沙岛,西岸的鸟岛、铁布卡湾及北岸沙柳河入口区域.尤其自2004年以来,鸟岛地区岸线后退距离最大（5.52 km）,鸟类栖息地扩张约97.94 km²,为鸟类提供了较好的栖息环境.（2）1973-2018年青海湖岸线长度以0.88 km/a的速率逐渐延长.1997年之前岸线长度呈较为平稳的上升趋势,1997-2004年呈波动下降趋势,2004年之后呈剧烈波动增加趋势,岸线曲折性也表现出相同的变化趋势.（3）总体上岸线长度和曲折性受水位和面积的影响并不显著,但在不同的水位情况下,二者对青海湖动态变化做出不同的响应.尤其当水位小于3193.3 m或面积小于4249.3 km²时,岸线曲折性会随着水位和面积变化呈现相同的变化趋势,而水位高于3193.3 m时,岸线曲折性一直在增加,且水位上升速率越大则曲折性年际变化越大.（4）1973-2004年间青海湖水位下降和土地沙漠化是造成湖岸线变化的直接成因,人类活动及草场退化加速了湖泊岸线的变迁.2004年之后,随着青海湖水位回升与面积扩张,岸线逐渐后退,尤其在2017-2018年岸线后退距离最大.     

基于分形几何理论的DFN模型构建方法研究

以重庆梁-忠（梁平县-忠县）高速公路礼让隧道为工程研究背景,通过测线法调查现场节理,获得了节理产状分布概率密度函数,并从分形几何学的角度分析了节理间距及迹长的分形分布规律,推导出能反映节理间距及迹长分布状态的分形维数D及分形分布概率密度函数。在该基础上采用Matlab软件以及Monte-Carlo随机分析方法,产生节理参数随机数,结合3DEC中最新模块离散裂隙网络(DFN)技术,建立了能反映节理裂隙分布特征的离散裂隙网络模型并验证了模型的有效性,结果表明,分形分布比负指数分布包含更多的间距、迹长分布信息,更接近于实际分布;分形维数D反映了节理间距、迹长在其变化范围内的分布特征,分形维数的大小取决于小间距、小迹长部分数量在总节理数量中的比例,为节理裂隙岩体网络模型构建提供了一种新方法。     

压力型锚索力学机理现场试验研究

通过现场试验研究了岩质边坡中压力型锚索的受力和破坏机理。试验锚索采用130 mm孔径,6束标准钢绞线,符合实际工程的常用锚索规格。严格控制锚固段与非锚固段尺寸,设置了不同的锚固段长度用以研究锚索的抗拔力学性能。试验获得了岩质条件下足尺压力型锚索的荷载位移全曲线。用应变砖测试了锚固段注浆体在受力过程中的应变规律,测试结果与理论计算的结果吻合。对试验结果进行分析发现,在较软岩条件下,试验锚索的最佳锚固长度在2 m左右。压力型锚索的位移延性性能非常优秀,在锚索整体位移较大时还能维持较高的承载力,可以提供良好的破坏预警。根据实测的轴向应变发现,随着锚固长度的增加,应力传递长度也略有增加。提出压力型锚索的破坏要经历局部塑性,整体塑性两个阶段。     

青藏高原地面加热场强度变化及其与太阳活动的关系

利用1958—2006年日喀则和玉树观测的历年各月平均地面(0 cm)温度和气温(百叶箱)资料,采用新量纲重新计算并续补了48年的青藏高原地面加热场强度距平指数。结果表明,青藏高原地面加热场强度存在后延1~2个月的显著相关,干季具有较好的持续性。除存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征外,总体表现出春、夏季由弱变强,秋、冬季由强变弱,且具有稳定而显著的准11年和17年周期。持续的太阳黑子数偏少对青藏高原地面加热场强度的增强具有明显的指示性;太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)变长(太阳活动减弱)时,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱。通过初步分析认为,太阳活动是引起青藏高原地面加热场强度变化的重要原因之一。     

The Parameterisation of Scalar Transfer over Rough Ice

We test a surface renewal model that is widely used over snow and ice surfaces to calculate the scalar roughness length (z _s ), one of the key parameters in the bulk aerodynamic method. For the first time, the model is tested against observations that cover a wide range of aerodynamic roughness lengths (z ₀). During the experiments, performed in the ablation areas of the Greenland ice sheet and the Vatnajökull ice cap in Iceland, the surface varied from smooth snow to very rough hummocky ice. Over relatively smooth snow and ice with z ₀ below a threshold value of approximately 10^?3 m, the model performs well and in accord with earlier studies. However, with growing hummock size, z ₀ increases well above the threshold and the bulk aerodynamic flux becomes significantly smaller than the eddy-correlation flux (e.g. for z ₀ = 0.01 m, the bulk aerodynamic flux is about 50% smaller). Apparently, the model severely underpredicts z _s over hummocky ice. We argue that the surface renewal model does not account for the deep inhomogeneous roughness sublayer (RSL) that is generated by the hummocks. As a consequence, the homogeneous substrate ice grain cover becomes more efficiently ‘ventilated’. Calculations with an alternative model that includes the RSL and was adapted for use over hummocky ice, qualitatively confirms our observations. We suggest that, whenever exceedance of the threshold occurs (z ₀  >  10^?3 m, i.e., an ice surface covered with at least 0.3-m high hummocks), the following relation should be used to calculate scalar roughness lengths, ln (z _s /z ₀)  =  1.5  ? 0.2 ln (Re _*)  ? 0.11(ln (Re _*))².