GMS5红外卫星云图参数化及在降水预测中的应用

从大气探测的基本原理出发,利用2001—2002年4—10月逐时的气象卫星红外云图和地面观测资料,对云图进行参数化估计,得到一些参数化估计结果,分析了不同视场条件下各类参数与降雨强度的关系,发现测站降水强度和其上空一定视场范围内的平均亮温、亮温方差、等效云量、亮温面积指数(1级、5级、6级)关系较明显,并利用最优子集回归方法建立小区域降水强度的预测方程,检验结果表明:利用红外资料估算未来6h的降雨强度其平均准确率在80%以上,分析视场大小对预测效果影响不大。     

边界层参数化方案对降水预报的影响

利用新一代WRF模式模拟了2003年7月8—10日的江淮暴雨,就WRF模式中的MRF和MYJ边界层参数化方案进行了对比试验。发现分辨率为20 km时,WRF模式基本上能够模拟出中尺度降水的范围、位置和强度。采用边界层方案显然比不采用边界层方案的模拟效果好,但是MYJ方案与MRF方案相比并没有明显的优越性。另外发现边界层物理过程对格点尺度降水影响很小,模式主要通过边界层物理过程和积云对流过程之间的耦合,来改善对流性降水的模拟。     

中尺度和云模式嵌套试验

利用嵌套Mesoscale Analysisand Process System（MAPS）模式提供离作业时间最近的湖北省77个县站大气层结状况，以弥补积云模式对于探空层结信息的需求；根据天气类型分析，获取湖北全省县站级一维积云模式初始扰动参数。20次嵌套试验统计表明：中尺度MAPS模式和积云模式的嵌套实现了多站点积云群的模拟，县站级降水预报和实际雨量偏差小于20％的站点数占到总数的58．2％；以2003年7月9日湖北省降水为例，利用嵌套模式对全省77个县站进行嵌套试验，结果表明：模式嵌套尤其有利于午后积云降水模拟，通过自然模拟计算和多站点积云群催化对比分析，能够较好地提供县站级增雨潜势量化预测。     

从宽带太阳直接辐射小时或日曝辐量反演气溶胶光学厚度研究

从宽带的太阳直接辐射1天或1小时累计量(曝辐量)气象观测资料反演气溶胶光学厚度的一个有效方法是很有用的.作者把太阳曝辐量与"等效"的瞬时太阳直接辐射关联起来,建立了一个与曝辐量"等效"的瞬时太阳直接辐射的模式;应用该模式和一个"等效"波长模式,发展了一个从太阳直接曝辐量反演气溶胶光学厚度的方法.作者还从试验上比较分析了由某时刻的宽带太阳直接辐射、每小时或1天的太阳直接辐射曝辐量反演得到的气溶胶光学厚度以及由太阳光度计探测的气溶胶光学厚度.试验结果表明,由日太阳直接辐射曝辐量反演得到的气溶胶光学厚度可理解为辐射加权的日平均光学厚度.     

中国关于积云参数化方案的应用

文中简要评述并比较了４类积云参数化方案,着重总结了各种积云参数化方案在中国的应用,最后结合中国特点讨论了积云参数化方案在应用中存在的一些问题和改进途径。     

The sensitivity of numerical simulation of the east asian monsoon to different cumulus parameterization schemes

In this paper, a 5-level spectral AGCM is used to examine the sensitivity of simulated East Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall to cumulus parameterization schemes. From the simulated results of East Asian monsoon circulations and rainfalls during the summers of 1987 and 1995, it is shown that the Kuo’s convective parameterization scheme is more suitable for the numerical simulation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation. This may be due to that the cumulus in the rainfall system is not strong in the East Asian monsoon region. This paper is supported by the National Key Progranmme “96-908”.     

卫星对地观测中大气与地表辐射贡献的参数化

卫星对地观测定量遥感地表与大气特性是当前地球科学与应用研究的关键手段之一。在定量遥感中区分大气和地表在地-气系统对空间散射辐射中各自的贡献与作用是关键的一步。这一问题的核心是基于辐射传输方程的数值计算建立起适合应用于遥感反演中分离大气与地表贡献的参数化表达式。本文对特定的气溶胶气候类型和可见/近红外波段建立起定量的表达形式,并对表达式的物理含义和拟合精度进行了分析。最后讨论了其应用的可行性和进一步的工作。     

Optimized Computation of Transfer Coefficients in Surface Layer with Different Momentum and Heat Roughness Lengths

A new method for computing the surface transfer coefficients is proposed, based on state-of-the-art empirical flux-profile relationships. The influence of the roughness length ratio is first demonstrated with the classical iterative calculation method. Then a non-iterative algorithm is developed, taking into account the difference between momentum and heat roughness lengths.The new method is validated by comparison with the reference iterative computation. The large gain-in computer processing time (CPU) time gain for the calculation of surface fluxes in Eulerian grid models is finally assessed.     

Impact of Atmospheric Surface-layer Parameterizations in the new Land-surface Scheme of the NCEP Mesoscale Eta Model

We tested three atmospheric surface-layer parameterization schemes (Mellor-Yamadalevel 2, Paulson, and modified Louis), both ina 1-D mode in the new NCEP land-surface scheme against long-term FIFE and HAPEX observations, and in a coupled 3-D mode withthe NCEP mesoscale Eta model. The differences inthese three schemes and the resulting surface exchange coefficients do not, in general, lead to significant differences in model simulated surface fluxes, skin temperature, andprecipitation, provided the same treatment of roughness length for heat is employed.Rather, the model is more sensitive to the choice of the roughness length for heat. To assess the latter, we also tested two approaches to specifythe roughness length for heat: 1) assuming the roughness length for heat is a fixed ratio of the roughness length for momentum, and 2) relating this ratio to the roughness Reynolds number as proposed by Zilitinkevich.Our 1-D column model sensitivity tests suggested that the Zilitinkevich approach can improve the surface heat fluxand skin temperature simulations. A long-term test with the NCEP mesoscaleEta model indicated that this approach can also reduce forecast precipitation bias. Based on these simulations, in January 1996 we operationally implemented the Paulsonscheme with the new land-surface scheme of the NCEP Eta model, along with the Zilitinkevich formulation to specify the roughness length for heat.