近百年来冷圈波动

本世纪CO_2的增温导致了冷圈波动。中纬度山地冰川的普遍退缩与加速消融引起了海面持续上升。格陵兰冰盖目前尚未处于显著的负平衡状态,边缘区在变薄,中心区在增厚。南极大陆冰盖还在增长,但基底可能发生退缩。北极海冰在1935—1960年期间退缩了10％,南极海冰面积在1973—1980年间减少了2.5×10~6km~2。大陆积雪的变化主要表现在中纬度地区,并呈现出区域性差异。而高纬度地区,大陆冰盖的降雪量有增加趋势。     

Organic carbon fluxes of a glacier surface: A case study of Foxfonna,a small Arctic glacier

Arctic glaciers are rapidly responding to global warming by releasing organic carbon (OC) to downstream ecosystems. The glacier surface is arguably the most biologically active and biodiverse glacial habitat and therefore the site of important OC transformation and storage, although rates and magnitudes are poorly constrained. In this paper, we present measurements of OC fluxes associated with atmospheric deposition, ice melt, biological growth, fluvial transport and storage (in superimposed ice and cryoconite debris) for a supraglacial catchment on Foxfonna glacier, Svalbard (Norway), across two consecutive years. We found that in general atmospheric OC input (averaging 0.63 ± 0.25 Mg a^-1 total organic carbon, i.e. TOC, and 0.40 ± 0.22 Mg a^-1 dissolved organic carbon, i.e. DOC) exceeded fluvial OC export (0.46 ± 0.04 Mg a^-1 TOC and 0.36 ± 0.03 Mg a^-1 DOC). Early in the summer, OC was mobilised in snowmelt but its release was delayed by temporary storage in superimposed ice on the glacier surface. This delayed the export of 28.5% of the TOC in runoff. Biological production in cryoconite deposits was a negligible potential source of OC to runoff, while englacial ice melt was far more important on account of the glacier's negative ice mass balance (–0.89 and –0.42 m a^-1 in 2011 and 2012, respectively). However, construction of a detailed OC budget using these fluxes shows an excess of inputs over outputs, resulting in a net retention of OC on the glacier surface at a rate that would require c. 3 years to account for the OC stored as cryoconite debris. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of snow-depth change on spring runoff in cryosphere areas of China

Based on snow-depth and measured runoff data in the 19 river basins of the cryosphere areas of China, changes in cold season snow depth (CSSD) and spring runoff, and the relationship between CSSD and spring runoff were analysed. Decreasing trends in CSSD were detected mainly in the plains (plateaus), while increasing trends were found mainly in the mountainous regions. Different combinations of precipitation and temperature may be responsible for these results. The response of spring runoff to CSSD change varied greatly under climate warming. The runoff in April and May was commonly affected by CSSD, while the runoff in March was less affected by CSSD, but more by the increasing temperature causing more snowmelt in March. Due to relatively greater snow accumulation in spring, the runoff during spring was less affected by CSSD in the southern Tienshan Mountains.     

面向可持续发展的冰冻圈科学

21世纪以来, 在全球气候变暖的大背景下, 冰冻圈科学发展快速。在梳理国际冰冻圈相关研究态势、 分析中国相关研究动向的基础上, 总结了“冰冻圈科学”发展的历程并简要介绍了冰冻圈科学的基本框架。研究指出, 自20世纪70年代冰冻圈概念正式提出以来, 国际社会以推出气候与冰冻圈（WCRP-CliC）计划和成立国际冰冻圈科学协会（IACS）为标志, 并在深化冰冻圈自身机理、 过程认识的同时, 更加关注与其他圈层之间相互作用中的冰冻圈效应, 表明冰冻圈研究趋向变化 - 影响 - 适应这一主线发展, 在一定程度显现出了“冰冻圈科学”的核心特征。中国冰冻圈研究近20年、 尤其是近10年发展迅猛, 沿着冰冻圈科学的主体思路, 在冰冻圈变化, 冰冻圈变化对生态、 水文、 气候、 地表环境以及社会经济的影响等方面取得了系统性成果, 对冰冻圈科学的内涵和外延有了系统的认识。在分析国际冰冻圈科学孕育和发展背景并简要总结中国冰冻圈研究近况基础上, 对冰冻圈科学学科框架体系从科学内涵和外延、 研究构架和学科组成等方面进行了论述, 冰冻圈科学已经成为一门涉及广泛、 过程机理研究与可持续发展密切关联的全新学科。     

冰冻圈变化的适应框架与战略体系

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向, 是当今全球变化研究中自然科学与社会科学交叉融合研究的典型代表。文章阐述了冰冻圈变化适应研究的内容框架, 分析了目前国际冰冻圈变化适应研究的现状、 动态与发展趋势。在此基础上, 从理论探索与实践研究两方面, 详细介绍了中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究。在理论与方法研究方面, 中国冰冻圈变化适应研究2007年起步至今, 已建立了由冰冻圈变化影响（冰冻圈服务和冰冻圈灾害）-风险-恢复力-适应构成的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究理论与方法体系; 在实践研究方面, 从致利与致害两条线, 开展了冰冻圈服务与冰冻圈灾害风险研究; 从冰冻圈与人类圈交互视角, 开展了冰冻圈变化的脆弱性、 恢复力与适应典型案例研究。未来, 一方面需进一步完善和深化现有理论体系, 尤其是冰冻圈与人类圈相耦合的灾害风险、 脆弱性与适应定量评估方法; 另一方面, 既要针对不同冰冻圈问题, 加强案例研究, 又要拓展尺度, 深入宏观研究, 为国家和地方政府决策提供科学依据与对策建议。     

冰冻圈旅游经济区发展水平及影响因素分析

大香格里拉地区是我国典型的冰冻圈旅游区,冰冻圈资源丰富,且旅游开发较好。以大香格里拉地区为例,运用熵值法、综合指数评价模型与地理探测器相结合的分析方法,对2008—2017年大香格里拉旅游经济区的发展水平及主要影响因素进行了分析,并提出相应政策建议。结果表明：（1）2008—2017年发展水平明显提高,但受冰冻圈资源变化影响较大;（2）该地区以中等偏下发展水平为主,各地区发展不平衡,发展水平差异呈现先扩大后缩小的趋势;（3）冰川面积、冰川面积覆盖率、人均全社会消费品零售总额、旅行社数量和城镇化率是影响大香格里拉地区发展水平的关键因子,经济和社会发展水平的迅速提升,在一定程度上抵消了冰冻圈资源萎缩的负面影响。基于此,应严格遵循生态保护红线,从实际出发,支持各地区发挥比较优势,利用当前冰冻圈资源优势,重点培育冰雪旅游产业,以促进大香格里拉地区发展进程。     

中国极地冰冻圈网络数据库建设

中国极地冰冻圈数据库是“中国极地科学数据库”的子数据库之一 ,它是我国极地科学研究的一项基础性工作。已建成的中国极地冰冻圈网络数据库主要包括冰川物理特性、冰川化学数据、海冰、气象、遥感和地理信息系统等 6个数据子库 ,其中遥感数据由于数据量大 ( 30G) ,在线仅提供数据目录 ,其余 5个数据子库在线数据量达 1 .5G左右。该数据库系统利用MicrosoftWindows 2 0 0 0Server作为Web服务器 ,选择MicrosoftSQLServer 7.0作为数据库管理软件 ,利用InternetInformationServer 5 .0和SybasePowerDynamo配置因特网服务器 ,功能上可以实现WWW服务和FTP服务。整个系统采用了因特网 (Internet)与客户机 /服务器 (Client/Server)相结合的技术 ,用户在权限范围内可以通过WWW服务网址方便地实现对网上资源的检索、浏览、打印、下载等功能     

冰冻圈服务功能及其价值评估初探

冰冻圈通过气候调节作用为人类营造了适宜的地球人居环境,提供了大量的淡水资源、高山水电和天然气水合物等清洁能源、多样的冰冻圈旅游产品、独特的冰冻圈文化形态,以及特有生物种群栖息地等资源,因此,冰冻圈具有独特的经济社会服务功能。在气候变暖驱动和人类活动干预下,冰冻圈服务功能具有增强与衰弱等过程,也存在功能丧失的阈限,因而其服务价值是动态的,是可评估和计算的。通过明晰冰冻圈系统功能,辨识全球不同时空尺度冰冻圈服务功能,初步建立了冰冻圈系统服务功能价值评估体系,可以提高决策者和民众对冰冻圈及其服务功能的认知程度和保护意识。同时,对于全球不同冰冻圈及其重点影响区各级政府实施冰冻圈服务功能的可持续利用和环境保护宏观决策,以避免追求短期经济行为而带来的负面影响,具有深远的历史意义和重要的现实意义。     

冰冻圈服务评估方法探讨

冰冻圈服务指人类能够从冰冻圈中直接或间接获得的各种惠益,由冰冻圈的过程和功能产生,可为人类生存和发展提供重要的物质和文化基础。随着冰冻圈科学的发展,人们对冰冻圈过程和功能的认识不断深化,同时冰冻圈科学研究如何为区域可持续发展服务也成为重要的关注点,受到冰冻圈科学界的重视。然而,作为冰冻圈服务研究的重要内容之一,人们对冰冻圈服务评估方法仍缺乏系统性探讨。鉴于此,本研究从物质量法、价值量法和能值分析法三个维度对各类冰冻圈服务的评估方法进行了探讨。通过对这三种方法的原理、基本使用准则、适用范围和优缺点进行分析,以期探寻评估各类冰冻圈服务的最适方法,从而为后期开展具体评估提供方法借鉴。     

Cryospheric change in China

This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km². The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km³ and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 10⁹ m³. The continuous snow cover extent (> 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 10⁶ km² and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 10⁹ m³ yr^− 1. The permafrost area in China is about 1.72 × 10⁶ km². The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about 10,923 km³. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high-temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward.