Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate

Abstract

Statistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980–2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET₀ trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET₀ series.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., 2013. Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 165–180.     

Canopy interception of apple orchards should not be ignored when assessing evapotranspiration partitioning on the Loess Plateau in China

Canopy interception is one of the most important processes in an ecosystem, but it is still neglected when assessing evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning in apple orchards on the Loess Plateau in China. To explore the importance of canopy interception, we monitored two neighbouring apple orchards on the Loess Plateau in China, one 8‐year‐old and the other 18‐years old at the start of the study, from May to September for four consecutive years (2013–2016). We measured parameters of canopy interception (I) including precipitation, throughfall, stemflow, leaf area index, transpiration (T), and soil evaporation (S) to quantify ET. The importance of canopy interception was then assessed by comparing the relationship between water supply (precipitation) and water demand (ET), calculated with and without considering canopy interception (T + S and T + S + I, respectively). Tree age clearly influenced canopy interception, as estimates of annual canopy interception during the study years in the younger and older orchards amounted to 22.2–29.4 mm and 26.8–39.9 mm, respectively. Daily incident rainfall and rainfall intensity in both orchards were significantly positively correlated with daily canopy interception in each year. The relationship between annual precipitation and annual ET (calculated with and without consideration of canopy interception) in the younger orchard differed during 2015 and 2016. Ignoring canopy interception would result in underestimation of annual ET in both apple orchards and hence incorrect evaluation of the relationship between water supply and water demand, particularly for the younger orchard during 2015 and 2016. Thus, for a complete understanding of water consumption in apple orchards in this and similar regions, canopy interception should not be ignored when assessing ET partitioning.     

基于遥感和SEBAL模型的塔里木河干流区蒸散发估算

运用1985 年、2000 年和2010 年遥感资料与SEBAL 模型估算了塔里木河干流区蒸散发。结果表明：该区蒸散发量较大,介于0~5.11 mm/d之间;靠近河道区蒸散发明显大于远离河道区;各土地利用/覆被类型蒸散发大小依次为：水体> 耕地> 林地> 草地> 未利用地> 居工地,主要与其植被覆盖度和水分供给条件有关;而日总蒸散发大小顺序为：草地> 未利用地> 耕地> 林地> 水体> 居工地,这与各土地利用/覆被类型面积密切相关。在1985-2010 年间,塔里木河干流区日总蒸散发量先减小后增大;上游平均日总蒸散发量为中游和下游的1.27 倍和1.42 倍。2000 年塔里木河干流区日总蒸散发比1985 年减少了6.80×10⁴ m³,原因是中游和下游日总蒸散发减小,而上游日总蒸散发量却增加了3.02×10⁵ m³。2010 年干流区日总蒸散发比2000 年高6.78×10⁵ m³,其中上游和中游日总蒸散发量增加了1.19×10⁶ m³,而下游却降低了5.16×10⁵ m³,主要受中上游地区绿洲耕地面积扩张,水资源开发量过大,下游来水量减少的影响。     

Evaluation of evapotranspiration models over semi‐arid and semi‐humid areas of China

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component in the hydrological cycle. However, its actual values appear to be difficult to obtain, especially in areas in which precipitation has high inter‐annual variability. Here, we evaluated eight commonly used ET models in semi‐arid and semi‐humid areas of China. The order of overall performance from best to worst is as follows: the revised Priestley–Taylor model (PT‐JPL, 0.71, 1.65 [18.37%], 4.72 [49.19%]) a a Statistics (model abbreviation, coefficient of determination, bias [relative value], standard deviation [relative value]).
, the modified PT‐JPL model (M1‐PT‐JPL, 0.67, ?0.68 [7.56%], 3.87 [40.31%]), the Community Land Model (CLM, 0.68, ?2.52 [28.01%], 5.10 [53.17%]), the modified PT‐JPL model (M2‐PT‐JPL, 0.63, 0.57 [6.27%], 5.04 [52.52%]), the revised Penman–Monteith model (RS‐PM, 0.62, 3.56 [37.40%], 6.11 [63.68%]), an empirical model (Wang, 0.59, ?1.04 [11.57%], 5.61 [58.43%]), the advection‐aridity model (AA, 0.55, 5.56 [61.78%], 7.45 [77.60%]), and the energy balance model (SEBS, 0.35, 5.11 [56.72%], 9.43 [98.18%]). The performance of all of the models is comparably poor in winter and summer, except for the PT‐JPL model, and relatively good in spring and autumn. Because of the vegetation control on ET, the Wang, RS‐PM, PT‐JPL, M1‐PT‐JPL, and M2‐PT‐JPL models perform better for cropland, whereas the AA model, SEBS model and CLM perform better for grassland. The CLM, PT‐JPL, and Wang models perform better in semi‐arid region than in semi‐humid region, whereas the opposite is true for SEBS and RS‐PM. The AA, M1‐PT‐JPL, and M2‐PT‐JPL models perform similarly in semi‐arid and semi‐humid regions. When considering the inter‐annual variability in precipitation, the Wang model has relatively good performance under only some annual precipitation conditions; the performance of the PT‐JPL and AA models is reduced under conditions of high precipitation; the two modified PT‐JPL models inherited the steady performance of the PT‐JPL model and improved the performance under conditions of high annual precipitation by the modification of the soil moisture constraint. RS‐PM is more appropriate for humid conditions. CLM and PT‐JPL models could be effectively applied to all precipitation conditions because of their good performance across a wide annual precipitation range. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India

In the present study, the trends in the reference evapotranspiration (ET_O) estimated through the Penman‐Monteith method were investigated over the humid region of northeast (NE) India by using the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test after removing the effect of significant lag‐1 serial correlation from the time series of ET_O by pre‐whitening. During the last 22 years, ET_O has been found to decrease significantly at annual and seasonal time scales for 6 sites in NE India and NE India as a whole. The seasonal decreases in ET_O have, however, been more significant in the pre‐monsoon season, indicating the presence of an element of a seasonal cycle. The decreases in ET_O are mainly attributed to the net radiation and wind speed, which are also corroborated by the observed trends in these two parameters at almost all the times scales over most of the sites in NE India. The steady decrease in wind speed and decline in net radiation not only balanced the impact of the temperature increases on ET_O, but may have actually caused the decreases in ET_O over the humid region of northeast India. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff in the Songhua River basin,China

Influences of climatic change on the components of global hydrological cycle, including runoff and evapotranspiration are significant in the mid‐ and high‐latitude basins. In this paper, the effect of climatic change on annual runoff is evaluated in a large basin—Songhua River basin which is located in the northeast of China. A method based on Budyko‐type equation is applied to separate the contributions of climatic factors to changes in annual runoff from 1960 to 2008, which are computed by multiplying their partial derivatives by the slopes of trends in climate factors. Furthermore, annual runoff changes are predicted under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with projections from five GCMs. The results showed that contribution of annual precipitation to annual runoff change was more significant than that of annual potential evapotranspiration in the Songhua River basin; and the factors contributing to annual potential evapotranspiration change were ranked as temperature, wind speed, vapour pressure, and sunshine duration. In the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, changes in annual runoff estimated with the GCM projections exhibited noticeable difference and ranged from ? 8·4 to ? 16·8 mm a^?1 (?5·77 to ? 11·53% of mean annual runoff). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于ETM+与MODIS数据融合的伊洛河流域地表蒸散估算

MODIS数据时间分辨率较高,在对地能量和水分变化监测应用中具有不可比拟的优势。但其空间分辨率较低,混合象元效应显著,尤其在地表土地利用类型复杂和空间异质性较大时,会带来较大的误差。而ETM+数据具备较高的空间分辨率,但其单一的热红外波段导致反演的地表温度精度不高,且时间分辨率低,因而限制了在地表蒸散监测中的应用。本文探讨了将TM/ETM+与MODIS数据相融合估算区域地表蒸散的一种多尺度遥感方法,利用TM/ETM+计算得到的植被指数,基于空间增强方法将MODIS反演的地表温度尺度提高到30 m,并结合SEBS模型对伊洛河流域的地表蒸散进行了估算。验证与分析的结果表明,估算精度得到提高,研究区当日蒸散量在0～5.32 mm/d之间,空间分布具有明显的地域性差异,区域分布不均衡。     

利用SEBAL和改进的SEBAL模型估算黑河中游戈壁、绿洲的蒸散发

蒸散发是干旱、半干旱地区内陆河流域水分消耗的主要途径, 利用遥感估算流域尺度上的蒸散发对内陆河流域水循环和水资源的合理利用具有重要的指导意义. 基于2012年开展的黑河流域生态-水文过程综合遥感观测联合试验(HiWATER)的观测资料和高分辨率的ASTER影像, 分别利用 SEBAL 模型和改进的SEBAL(M-SEBAL)模型估算黑河中游不同时期戈壁、绿洲等不同下垫面的蒸散发, 通过涡动观测数据对比分析了SEBAL模型和M-SEBAL模型估算戈壁、绿洲蒸散发的精度. 结果表明: SEBAL模型在绿洲低估感热通量, 高估潜热通量; 在戈壁高估感热通量, 低估潜热通量. M-SEBAL 模型充分考虑不同下垫面地表辐射温度与植被覆盖度之间的关系, 能很好地反映不同植被覆盖区域的湍流通量的异质性, 估算黑河中游戈壁、绿洲蒸散发的精度高于SEBAL模型.     

1901-2012年中国西北地区东部多时间尺度干旱特征

以干旱的多时间尺度特征出发,利用CRU最新数据,计算了考虑降水和气温双因子影响的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),并与标准化降水指数(SPI)进行对比,分析中国西北地区东部1901-2012年不同时间尺度的干旱特征。本文不仅对百年来CRU资料的可靠性进行检验,而且对SPEI在西北地区东部的适应性进行讨论。结果表明:CRU资料可靠性较好,但由于CRU资料本身的属性,1920年以前资料的可靠性不确定。从干旱事件的发生强度及干旱范围分析,SPEI在西北地区东部具有较好的适用性。SPEI与SPI在不同时间尺度下的波动变化一致,短时间尺度主要表现年内或季节特征,长时间尺度则侧重表现年际、年代际特征。将研究区分为高原东北区和陕南区进行分析,1901-2012年高原东北区有4个干期,陕南区有5个干期。针对温度变化对西北地区东部干旱的影响及与SPI对比表明,高温对干旱的贡献不容忽视。     

标准化降水蒸发指数在中国区域的应用

利用中国气象局160个站1951～2010年月降水和月平均气温资料,分析了最近定义的一种干旱指数——标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)在我国不同等级降水区域的适用性,并与标准化降水指数(SPI)和湿润指数H进行了对比分析。结果表明:1)在我国年均降水量大于200 mm的地区,各种时间尺度的SPEI分析均适用;在干旱区(年均降水量小于200 mm),只有12个月以上的大尺度SPEI分析适用性较好;其中12个月尺度的SPEI分析在各区适用性最好。2)由于干旱区冬季的潜在蒸发量和降水量0值均较多,导致1、3、6个月的小尺度SPEI分析在该区不适用。3)与SPI和H指数相比,SPEI既能充分反映1997年气温跃变以后增温效应对干旱程度的影响,又可作为监测指数识别干旱是否发生和结束,能较准确地表征干旱状况。