High resolution climate change scenarios: implications for British runoff

Nationwide changes in spatially well‐resolved patterns of British runoff were investigated under two climate change scenarios derived from general circulation model (GCM) output. A physical process‐based hydrological model (HYSIM) was used to simulate effective runoff across a 10 km×10 km British grid under baseline and future climate conditions. A gridded baseline climatology for precipitation and the Penman variables was used to validate HYSIM across Britain using grid cell‐specific parameters derived from land use and soil type. The climate change scenarios were constructed from the Hadley Centre's high resolution equilibrium GCM (UKHI) for 2050 and transient GCM (UKTR) for 2065. Future effective runoff was simulated under both scenarios by applying changes in precipitation and the Penman variables to the baseline climatology. Annual effective runoff is shown to increase throughout most of Britain under the UKHI scenario for 2050, whilst it decreases over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario for 2065. Both scenarios show an increasing gradient in runoff between a wetter northern Britain and a drier south‐eastern Britain. This gradient is more pronounced under the UKTR scenario. Changes in effective runoff for winter and summer show an increase in seasonality under both scenarios. Winter runoff is shown to increase most in northern Britain under both scenarios, whilst summer runoff is shown to experience major reductions over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario. If these simulations are realized, Britain may expect an accentuated north to south‐east imbalance in available water resources. If this is combined with a temporal imbalance suggested by the increased seasonality, there could be problems for the future management of British water resources. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of spatial resolution of satellite images on estimating the greenness and evapotranspiration of urban green spaces

Urban green spaces (UGS), like most managed land covers, are getting progressively affected by water scarcity and drought. Preserving, restoring and expanding UGS require sustainable management of green and blue water resources to fulfil evapotranspiration (ET) demand for green plant cover. The heterogeneity of UGS with high variation in their microclimates and irrigation practices builds up the complexity of ET estimation. In oversized UGS, areas too large to be measured with in situ ET methods, remote sensing (RS) approaches of ET measurement have the potential to estimate the actual ET. Often in situ approaches are not feasible or too expensive. We studied the effects of spatial resolution using different satellite images, with high-, medium- and coarse-spatial resolutions, on the greenness and ET of UGS using Vegetation Indices (VIs) and VI-based ET, over a 780-ha urban park in Adelaide, Australia. We validated ET with the ground-based ET method of Soil Water Balance. Three sets of imagery from WorldView2, Landsat and MODIS, and three VIs including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2), were used to assess long-term changes of VIs and ET calculated from the different imagery acquired for this study (2011–2018). We found high correspondence between ET-MODIS and ET-Landsat (R² > 0.99 for all VIs). Landsat-VIs captured the seasonal changes of greenness better than MODIS-VIs. We used artificial neural network (ANN) to relate the RS-ET and ground data, and ET-MODIS (EVI2) showed the highest correlation (R² = 0.95 and MSE =0.01 for validation). We found a strong relationship between RS-ET and in situ measurements, even though it was not explicable by simple regressions; black box models helped us to explore their correlation. The methodology used in this research makes a strong case for the value of remote sensing in estimating and managing ET of green spaces in water-limited cities.     

Precipitation as a proxy for climate variables: application for hydrological modelling

It has been proposed that linear regression curves can be used to estimate monthly climate variables from observed precipitation. This approach was explored by applying the MGB hydrological model to the Paraná Basin (Brazil). Linear regressions were obtained for 54 climate gauges, and most of them showed at least six months of significant correlation between monthly climate variables (sunlight hours and relative humidity) and precipitation. The regression equations were applied to 5201 raingauges to estimate monthly climate variables and evapotranspiration, and the results were compared with a scenario using long-term climate averages only. The main differences occurred in wetter periods, where negative correlations between monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration were obtained when using precipitation as a proxy. Long-term changes in the hydrological regime were assessed and showed that the effect of precipitation on relative humidity and sunlight hours seems to have a minor effect on the alterations observed in river discharge in the Paraná Basin.     

北疆地区参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征

为明确北疆地区在全球气候变暖背景下合理的灌溉制度,利用北疆地区22个气象站49 a(1962~2010年)的逐日气象资料,运用Penman-Monteith公式计算北疆地区1962~2010年的参考作物蒸散量ET0(reference crop evapotranspiration),并用Mann-Kendall方法对其进行突变检验,基于Arc GIS9.3空间分析功能模块对北疆参考作物蒸散量进行了空间变化分析。结果表明:研究区域的ET0在1983年发生向下突变,ET0在时间分布上整体呈下降趋势,主要受该地区相对湿度和风速的影响;ET0从北疆的东北部和西南部向中间逐渐升高,东南部和西部表现略高,具有明显的区域差异;4~10月ET0对全年ET0的分布具有显著影响。     

Dynamic analysis of evapotranspiration based on remote sensing in Yellow River Delta

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter for water resource management. Compared to the traditional ET computation and measurement methods, the ET computation method based on remote sensing has the advantages of quickness, precision, raster mapping and regional scale. SEBAL, an ET computation model using remote sensing method is based on the surface energy balance equation which is a function of net radiance flux, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux. The former three fluxes can be computed through the parameters retrieved from remote sensing image, then the latent heat flux can be obtained to provide energy for ET. Finally we can obtain the daily ET. In this study SEBAL was applied to compute ET in the Yellow River Delta of China where water resource faces a rigorous situation. Three Landsat TM images and meteorology data of 1999 were used for ET computation, and spatial and temporal change patterns of ET in the Yellow River Delta were analysed.     

广东实际蒸散发与潜在蒸散发的关系研究

利用广东86个气象站1961-2008年的观测资料,采用高桥浩一郎经验公式、Penman公式分别计算了广东省6个子区域1961-2008年实际蒸散发(Actual Evapotranspiration)Ea和潜在蒸散发(Potential Evapotranspiration)Ep,并定量化分析了供水条件变化下Ea与Ep的关系,对它们的理论从属性进行了判定。结果表明,广东省年实际蒸散发量远低于潜在蒸散发量,全省平均Ea为791.0 mm/a,Ep为1 034.1 mm/a,多数子区域Ea不足Ep的3/4,Ea的变异性明显高于Ep。随降水量R的增加,粤东沿海、珠三角、粤北、粤中、粤西南5个子区域Ea增加趋势明显,粤东Ea随R的变化趋势不明显;除粤东外,各子区域的Ep与降水量呈显著负相关关系;随着R的增加,全省平均Ea呈明显的增加趋势,Ep则呈明显的下降趋势。通过对降水量R与实际蒸散发Ea、潜在蒸散发Ep的联合回归方程R-E回归系数的T检验,判定粤东沿海、珠三角、粤北、粤中、粤西南5个子区域Ea与R和Ep与R的关系满足理论意义上的完全互补相关;粤东Ea与R和Ep与R关系不明确。     

退化羊草草原的群落蒸发蒸腾

草原群落蒸发蒸腾是一个由多种因素综合影响的复杂问题。本文在天然羊草草原上,以畜群点为中心由外向内,选择退化程度不同的放牧空间梯度系列替代退化演替时间梯度系列,用土柱称重法进行群落蒸发蒸腾观测,深入分析了羊草草原退化群落蒸发蒸腾的变化规律。得出:天然羊草草原在土壤供水较为充足的情况下,随着放牧强度的增加,群落生物量减少,盖度减少,蒸腾减少,蒸发增加,但蒸散减少不明显。     

Impact of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from forested catchments in southeast Australia

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impacts of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from three southeast Australian catchments where bushfires occurred in February 1983. Three hydrological models (AWRA-L, Xinanjiang and GR4J) were first calibrated against streamflow data from the pre-bushfire period and then used to simulate runoff for the post-bushfire period with the calibrated parameters. The difference in simulated streamflow between pre- and post-bushfire periods provides an estimate of the impact of climate variability on streamflow. The impact of bushfire on streamflow is quantified by removing the climate variability impact from the difference in mean annual observed streamflow between post- and pre-bushfire periods. For the first 15 years after the 1983 bushfires, the results from hydrological models for the three catchments indicate that there is a substantial increase in streamflow; this is attributed to initial decreases in evapotranspiration and soil infiltration rates resulting from the fires, followed by logging activity. After 15 years, streamflow dynamics are more heavily influenced by climate effects, although some impact from fire and logging regeneration may still occur. The results show that hydrological models provide reasonably consistent estimates of bushfire and climate impacts on streamflow for the three catchments. The models can be used to quantify relative contributions of forest disturbance (bushfire, logging and other forest management) and climate variability. The results presented can also help forest managers understand the relationship between bushfire and climate variability impacts on water yield in the context of climate variability.     

2001—2010年青藏高原干湿格局及其影响因素分析

基于RFE2.0模型和Penman-Monteith模型,采用潜在蒸散降水比分析了2001—2010年青藏高原生长季(5—9月)干湿气候的时空变化格局,并对其影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)干旱和半干旱区占整个青藏高原区域的67%,主要集中在高原中部及中部以北;(2)2001—2010年有25%的区域在逐渐变干,北部干旱程度总体上在逐渐减轻,南部及东南部有变干倾向;(3)降水是导致高原区域干湿气候空间格局差异的主要因素,高原干湿气候对潜在蒸散变化的敏感性最强。     

氢氧稳定同位素技术在生态系统水分耗散中的应用研究进展

氢氧稳定同位素作为水的"DNA",对于研究水分的传输和转化具有重要的意义,而水分耗散是水循环的重要组成部分。简单介绍氢氧稳定同位素在水分耗散研究中应用的主要原理和比较新的一些技术方法,主要对其在森林、草原生态系统和农田生态系统中蒸散发分离,植物水分来源区分、叶片水同位素富集和水分利用效率等方面做较为详细的归纳总结和探讨,最后指出国内此类研究仍然存在的问题和可能的发展方向,以期对未来氢氧稳定同位素技术在水分循环和水分耗散方面的应用研究有借鉴作用。