2007年夏季江淮强降水过程中10~30d低频变化及其与对流层上层波包活动的联系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析和全国740站逐日降水资料,运用一点滞后相关等方法,对2007年夏季江淮流域强降水期间低频振荡的波动活动特征及其与降水低频变化的联系进行了分析。结果表明,在2007年夏季降水中,降水低频分量起着重要作用。降水的低频振荡主周期为10~30d,降水距平时间序列与10~30d低频分量具有较好的对应关系。低频扰动在对流层上层和低层都呈现波列状分布,且在降水活跃位相时,低频环流在高、低层具有斜压结构。在对流层上层,低频扰动有缓慢的东移倾向,相速度为每天2~3个经度。西风带中存在多次移动性波列向下游的传播,且在120°E以西以每天14经度的群速度向下游频散能量,表明10~30d低频波动具有明显的下游发展特征。在强降水开始5d前,低频波动与能量可起源于高纬的乌拉尔山附近,沿着西北-东南向的路径向下游传播。下游发展的低频波动为江淮流域带来了能量,为强降水的发生提供了条件。这些结果加深了人们对低频波动在江淮流域强降水过程中所起作用的认识,可为寻找江淮流域强降水过程预报线索提供科学依据。     

电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)测定水系沉积物中的铌钽锆铪

建立电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)测定水系沉积物中铌、钽、锆、铪四种元素的分析方法。将样品与氢氧化钠、过氧化钠混合物放入高温炉中,熔融分解完全,用热水提取,过滤后弃去滤液,将滤纸及沉淀用酒石酸-盐酸溶液溶解,稀释至刻度测定。方法检出限(3s)为:LD(Nb)=0.08μg/g,LD(Ta)=0.04μg/g,LD(Zr)=0.5μg/g,LD(Hf)=0.04μg/g,精密度(RSD%,n=6)为:0.84%~4.21%。该测定方法具有灵敏度高、精密度好、分析速度快、线性范围宽、操作性强等优势。采用该方法对国家一级标准物质进行测定表明,其结果与标准值吻合。此方法已在实际地质调查样品分析中得到应用。     

均生函数与BP神经网络耦合模拟预测模型(MGF-BP-I)的建立与应用

水文气候因子模拟预测对气候变化研究、农业墒情预报、生态环境改善、水资源合理开发利用等具有一定参考意义。均生函数、BP神经网络及其结合改进方式在模拟预测中各有优点,被广泛应用,但仍有进一步改进空间。针对MGF、MGF-OSR、MGF-OSR-BP等方法粗选因子集、粗选集组合筛选、收敛适应性、精度控制等可改进空间,进一步发挥均生函数和BP神经网络优势,建立了MGF-BP-I模拟预测模型。利用MGF-OSR、MGF-OSR-BP、MGF-BP-I对科尔沁沙地区域平均年降水进行了模拟预测。结果表明,建模期MGF-OSR-BP、MGF-BP-I拟合效果均较好,MGF-BP-I建模阶段最优模式精度优于MGF-OSR-BP,MGF-BP-I整体同时最优模式结果也非常好。检验期,MGF-BP-I检验阶段最优及整体同时最优两种模式拟合效果最好,相比其他模式精度有所提高。MGF-BP-I考虑更加全面,充分发挥了均生函数和BP神经网络优势,精度远高于MGF-OSR和MGF-OSR-BP,MGF-BP-I整体同时最优模式更符合实际应用,效果理想,可用于水文气候因子模拟预测。     

An Investigation of Digestion Methods for Trace Elements in Bauxite and Their Determination in Ten Bauxite Reference Materials Using Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Mass Spectrometry

Trace elements from samples of bauxite deposits can provide useful information relevant to the exploration of the ore‐forming process. Sample digestion is a fundamental and critical stage in the process of geochemical analysis, which enables the acquisition of accurate trace element data by ICP‐MS. However, the conventional bomb digestion method with HF/HNO₃ results in a significant loss of rare earth elements (REEs) due to the formation of insoluble AlF₃ precipitates during the digestion of bauxite samples. In this study, the digestion capability of the following methods was investigated: (a) ‘Mg‐addition’ bomb digestion, (b) NH₄HF₂ open vessel digestion and (c) NH₄F open vessel digestion. ‘Mg‐addition’ bomb digestion can effectively suppress the formation of AlF₃ and simultaneously ensure the complete decomposition of resistant minerals in bauxite samples. The addition of MgO to the bauxite samples resulted in (Mg + Ca)/Al ratios ≥ 1. However, adding a large amount of MgO leads to significant blank contamination for some transition elements (V, Cr, Ni and Zn). The NH₄HF₂ or NH₄F open vessel digestion methods can also completely digest resistant minerals in bauxite samples in a short period of time (5 hr). Unlike conventional bomb digestion with HF/HNO₃, the white precipitates and the semi‐transparent gels present in the NH₄HF₂ and NH₄F digestion methods could be efficiently dissolved by evaporation with HClO₄. Based on these three optimised digestion methods, thirty‐seven trace elements including REEs in ten bauxite reference materials (RMs) were determined by ICP‐MS. The data obtained showed excellent inter‐method reproducibility (agreement within 5% for REEs). The relative standard deviation (% RSD) for most elements was < 6%. The concentrations of trace elements in the ten bauxite RMs showed agreement with the limited certified (Li, V, Cr, Cu, Zn, Ga, Sr, Zr and Pb) and information values (Co, Ba, Ce and Hf) available. New trace element data for the ten RMs are provided, some of which for the first time.     

Numerical Analysis of Gravity Coring Using Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Method and a New Corer

The shortcomings of gravity corers in sampling marine sediments have been observed extensively in various field tests. In order to optimize the coring, this article provides an alternative numerical way to model the gravity coring and analyze the sampling effect. Based on this analysis, a new hydraulic hammer corer is devised. A coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian method with capability of simulating the problem involving extreme deformation, penetration is used to simulate the coring process. The results show that the hydrostatic pressure and deviator stress increase and reach their peak when the pile tip is slightly above or at the level of the observation point and then drop rapidly when the pile tip slides below the observation point. In addition, the stress path indicates that the soil element sustains plastic compression before yielding and then expands until recovering to the original state. The obvious “under-sampling” phenomenon is also well-captured by the finite element model.     

Coupled Dynamic Response Analysis of A Multi-Column Tension-Leg-Type Floating Wind Turbine

This paper presents a coupled dynamic response analysis of a multi-column tension-leg-type floating wind turbine (WindStar TLP system) under normal operation and parked conditions. Wind-only load cases, wave-only load cases and combined wind and wave load cases were analyzed separately for the WindStar TLP system to identify the dominant excitation loads. Comparisons between an NREL offshore 5-MW baseline wind turbine installed on land and the WindStar TLP system were performed. Statistics of selected response variables in specified design load cases (DLCs) were obtained and analyzed. It is found that the proposed WindStar TLP system has small dynamic responses to environmental loads and it thus has almost the same mean generator power output under operating conditions as the land-based system. The tension mooring system has a sufficient safety factor, and the minimum tendon tension is always positive in all selected DLCs. The ratio of ultimate load of the tower base fore-aft bending moment for the WindStar TLP system versus the land-based system can be as high as 1.9 in all of the DLCs considered. These results will help elucidate the dynamic characteristics of the proposed WindStar TLP system, identify the difference in load effect between it and land-based systems, and thus make relevant modifications to the initial design for the WindStar TLP system.     

Hybrid N-order Lagrangian Interpolation Eulerian?Lagrangian Method for Salinity Calculation

The Eulerian?Lagrangian method (ELM) has been used by many ocean models as the solution of the advection equation, but the numerical error caused by interpolation imposes restriction on its accuracy. In the present study, hybrid N-order Lagrangian interpolation ELM (LiELM) is put forward in which the N-order Lagrangian interpolation is used at first, then the lower order Lagrangian interpolation is applied in the points where the interpolation results are abnormally higher or lower. The calculation results of a step-shaped salinity advection model are analyzed, which show that higher order (N=3?8) LiELM can reduce the mean numerical error of salinity calculation, but the numerical oscillation error is still significant. Even number order LiELM makes larger numerical oscillation error than its adjacent odd number order LiELM. Hybrid N-order LiELM can remove numerical oscillation, and it significantly reduces the mean numerical error when N is even and the current is in fixed direction, while it makes less effect on mean numerical error when N is odd or the current direction changes periodically. Hybrid odd number order LiELM makes less mean numerical error than its adjacent even number order LiELM when the current is in the fixed direction, while the mean numerical error decreases as N increases when the current direction changes periodically, so odd number of N may be better for application. Among various types of Hybrid N-order LiELM, the scheme reducing N-order directly to 1st-order may be the optimal for synthetic selection of accuracy and computational efficiency.     

Probabilistic calibration of a coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability model with integration of multiple observations

Multiple types of responses, such as displacements, ground water level, pore water pressures, water contents, etc., are usually measured in comprehensive monitoring programmes for rainfall-induced landslide prevention. In this study, a probabilistic calibration method for coupled hydro-mechanical modelling of slope stability is presented with integration of multiple types of measurements. A numerical example of a soil slope under rainfall infiltration is illustrated to compare the effects of single and multiple types of responses on parameter estimation and model calibration. The results show that the soil parameters can be estimated with less uncertainty and total uncertainty bounds are narrower with multiple types of responses than with a single type of response. Model calibration based on multiple types of responses can compromise different responses and hence the means and standard deviations of model error are the smallest. A feasible correlation coefficient between soil modulus and permeability can be obtained from model calibration with multiple types of responses and single type of response as long as the responses include displacement data.     

Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill

非洲中东部地区的经济主要依靠自给农业支撑,该地区农业经济对降水的变化尤为敏感.本文以卢旺达为例,观测分析指出卢旺达的次季节降雨主要集中在10-25天;根据次季节尺度降水变率的单点相关方法,发现卢旺达的次季节降水变率和周围区域变化一致;进一步合成结果显示该地区次季节降水变率与异常西风有关,这可追溯到赤道地区西传的赤道Rossby波.最后,本文评估了当前动力模式ECMWF对 卢旺达地区(即非洲中东部)次季节降水变率的预报能力,发现EC模式在对该区域降水和相关风场指数的预报技巧都在18天左右,且预报技巧表现出一定的年际差异,这可能与热带太平洋的背景海温信号有关.该工作增进了当 前对非洲中东部地区的次季节降水变率和预测水平的认知,并且对该地区国家粮食安全和防灾减灾具有启示性意义.     

Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill

斯里兰卡的雨季发生于5-9月间,主要受西南季风的控制.本文发现该地区的西南季风降水存在很强的次季节变率,主导周期为10-35天.降水的季节内变化与西传的异常气旋有关.进一步,利用S2S比较计划中欧洲中心的数值预报模式(ECMWF)提供的回报试验数据,评估了当今动力模式对斯里兰卡西南季风次季节变化的预报技巧.结果显示,对季风指数的预测技巧超过30天,而对降水指数的预测技巧大约两周,且模式的预报技巧具有明显的年际差异.分析表明,能否正确模拟出大尺度环流对热带对流的响应是影响斯里兰卡降水预测的重要因子.