秦皇岛入海河流的污染水平、排放特征及对褐潮暴发区生源要素的影响

为查明秦皇岛近海大面积褐潮连年暴发的成因,在2013年3—11月对该地区主要入海河流和沿岸褐潮暴发区的生源要素污染进行了连续调查研究。调查结果表明,所调查入海河流普遍为劣V类地表水,总氮(TN)超标严重,按照氮污染程度由高到低排列依次为大蒲河洋河戴河石河汤河东沙河。各河流中的碳、氮、磷、硅等污染物浓度在时间变化上没有统一规律。基于综合污染指数法的评价结果显示,大蒲河和洋河为重度污染,戴河和汤河从先前的轻度污染加重为中度污染。从污染物入海量上看,TN和化学需氧量(COD)是排放量最高的两种河源污染物,其中溶解态氮占TN的74.6%。在所调查河流中,洋河和大蒲河分别贡献了TN的38.2%和33.2%,同时大蒲河还贡献了75.8%的活性磷酸盐和37.7%的活性硅酸盐,而75.9%的COD来自汤河、洋河和大蒲河。秦皇岛河源污染物排放在时间上较为集中在6—9月的丰水期,但各河流单独的排放具有随机性,没有统一的季节性规律,表现出受人为调控影响明显的特点。秦皇岛沿岸褐潮暴发区的生源要素变化与河源污染物排放有显著性相关(P=0.05)。     

2002-2014年间基于海平面变化的海洋增暖趋势研究

21世纪以来全球变暖进入停滞时期,研究表明,大量热量进入海洋深层是导致全球平均表面温度暂缓上升的主要原因。本文估计和研究了2002.4-2014.12间由热膨胀导致的海平面变化趋势,以此来探测海洋热含量的变化情况。研究使用GRACE重力卫星CSR RL05数据计算了全球海洋的水质量变化,并结合海平面异常数据,计算了由热量变化导致的海平面变化（Net SLA）。将Net SLA与Ishii温度数据计算的海洋热含量进行相关性分析后表明,Net SLA与海洋热含量存在高度相关性,相关系数最大值达0.95。考虑到海洋观测只能表现海洋上层2000m的热含量变化,而除去水质量变化的海平面变化则反映了整层海洋的热含量变化,是估计海洋增暖趋势快慢的有利工具。经计算得出,2002至2014年间南太平洋和南印度洋存在加速增暖趋势,而近年来南半球环状模的增强是导致其增暖的主要原因。     

Optical dating and soil micromorphology at MacCauley's Beach,New South Wales,Australia

The ability to position landscapes in a context of time and space is a particular goal of Quaternary science research. The lack of context for dating samples published previously for MacCauley's Beach, an important site for the reconstruction of Australian sea levels, warranted a re‐evaluation of both the site stratigraphy and chronology. In this study, we combined optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sedimentary quartz grains and soil micromorphology of the same samples to improve our understanding of the depositional history and chronology of the sediments. This combination allowed the contextualization of samples not only in time and space, but also in terms of their depositional histories. The latter is important in OSL dating, where pre‐, syn‐ and post‐depositional processes can all influence the accuracy and precision of the final age estimates. The sediment profile at MacCauley's Beach is made up of three major units. The basal mottled mud layer has undergone extensive pedogenesis since deposition, and only a minimum age of 14.7 ± 2.7 ka could be calculated. The overlying grey mud, with OSL ages from the bottom and top of the unit of 10.0 ± 0.7 and 7.7 ± 0.5 ka, respectively, shows evidence of soil structure collapse. This unit correspond to the onset of the mid‐Holocene sea‐level high stand for this region. The overlying sand layer was first deposited at 7.5 ± 0.4 ka, with deposition continuing beyond 6.6 ± 0.4 ka. Not only does the chronology presented constrain the timing of deposition (and the extent of post‐depositional processes) at MacCauley's Beach, but the methodological approach used here can be applied to any site to aid in the interpretation of formation processes and assess their influence on OSL age determination. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A meta‐analysis of reef island response to environmental change on the Great Barrier Reef

Reef islands on the Great Barrier Reef are influenced by a range of environmental factors. A meta‐analysis of 103 islands is presented to express variation in island size (area and volume) as a function of latitudinal and cross shelf gradients in regional oceanographic factors (exposure to incident waves, tidal range and tropical cyclone frequency) and local physical factors (position on the shelf, area, length and depth of supporting reef platform, vegetative cover). Models performed well for unvegetated sandcays (R² = 0.89), vegetated sandcays (R² = 0·72) and low wooded islands (R² = 0.78), with a moderate level of variation explained when all islands were simultaneously regressed (R² = 0.58). Future island dynamics were simulated for anticipated changes in cyclone regime, wave activity and sea level. For 38 islands mapped on the 1973 Royal Society and Universities of Queensland Expedition to the Northern Great Barrier Reef, change over the same 22 year period (1973–1995) was determined and the relative magnitude of observed and modelled changes was compared and found to be consistent through rank correlation analysis (Γ = 0.84 for unvegetated sandcays, Γ = 0.81 for vegetated sandcays). Simulations of island area or volume change from 2000 to 2100 indicated that under a 30% decrease in tropical cyclone activity, unvegetated sandcays continue to accrete at a lower rate, whereas all island types erode under a 38% increase in tropical cyclone activity. Vegetated sandcays initially accrete at higher levels of cyclone activity, entering an erosive state with a 60% increase in activity. Low wooded islands are unresponsive to environmental changes modelled. A sensitivity analysis of vegetated and unvegetated sandcays indicated that the presence of vegetation increases the tropical cyclone activity threshold at which islands begin to erode. Greatest sedimentary losses occur within the central band of high cyclone activity between Cooktown and Mackay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prograded foredunes of Western Australia's macro‐tidal coast – implications for Holocene sea‐level change and high‐energy wave impacts

The Holocene evolution of the Canning Coast of Western Australia has largely been overlooked so far mainly due to its remoteness and low population density. We report on new data from a sequence of foredunes inside the macro‐tidal Admiral Bay, 110 km southwest of Broome. Based on sediment cores, differential global positioning system (dGPS)‐based elevation transects, and stratigraphical analyses on outcrops of the relict foredunes, we aim at reconstructing Holocene coastal changes and relative sea levels (RSLs), as well as identifying and dating imprints of extreme‐wave events. Sedimentary analyses comprise the documentation of bedding structures, foraminiferal content and macrofaunal remains, grain size distribution, and organic matter. The chronological framework is based on 26 carbon‐14 accelerator mass spectrometry (¹⁴C‐AMS) datings. Marine flooding of the pre‐Holocene surface landward of the 2.5 km‐wide foredune barriers occurred 7400–7200 cal bp , when mangroves colonized the area. After only 200–400 years, a high‐energy inter‐tidal environment established and prevailed until c. 4000 cal bp , before turning into the present supralittoral mudflat. During that time, coastal regression led to beach progradation and the formation of aligned foredunes. Drivers of progradation were a stable RSL or gradual RSL fall after the mid‐Holocene and a positive sand budget. The foredunes overlie upper beach deposits located up to >2 m above the present upper beach level and provide evidence for a higher mid‐Holocene RSL. Discontinuous layers of coarse shells and sand are intercalated in the foredunes, indicating massive coastal flooding events. One such layer was traced over three dune ridges and dated to c. 1700–1550 cal bp . However, it seems that most tropical cyclones induce net erosion rather than deposition at aligned foredunes and thus, they are only suitable for reconstructing temporal variability if erosional features or sedimentation reliably tied to these events can be identified and dated accurately. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城镇化水平与制造业空间分布——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

基于2001~2011 年中国省区面板数据,聚焦于城镇化水平与中国制造业空间分布。研究表明,城镇化水平是中国制造业空间分布的重要影响因素之一,两者之间存在倒"U"型关系,以中国各省区制造业产值占全国制造业总产值的份额反映中国制造业的空间分布,当城镇化水平超过36.26%后,城镇化水平的进一步提高不再推动制造业份额上升,反而会导致其下降。进一步研究发现,劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型3 种类型制造业在空间分布、份额变化和与城镇化水平的相关性上均存在一定程度的差异性,并印证了制造业内部存在由劳动密集型、资本密集型向技术密集型转型升级的基本规律。此外,交通设施水平、区位条件等因素也会对中国制造业空间分布产生影响。     

珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测

珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明：受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。     

鄂尔多斯市2005-2014年地下水位变化

鄂尔多斯市地处半干旱区,水资源缺乏,监测地下水位的变化对于地区生态和经济发展具有重要意义。本研究利用鄂尔多斯市6个地下水位监测井2005-2014年的监测资料,分析了该地区地下水位变化特征。结果显示:(1)本地区地下水位2005-2006年有所下降,2007-2010年逐年抬升,2011年受严重干旱影响,地下水位为近10年来最低值,从2012年开始至2014年,以每年0.14 m的幅度抬升,2014年为近10年最高值,地下水位的年际变化主要与煤炭开采和经济发展有关。(2)地下水位的年内季节变化明显,与降雨量、蒸发量和农业灌溉用水的相关性较高。3-7月,水位持续下降,7月地下水位为年内最低点;8-10月,水位逐步回升;11月至次年2月水位总体呈略微抬升状态,次年2月为年内最高值。     

基于面板数据的中国R&D投入对城镇化影响分析

利用中国30个省区2002-2012年R&D投入和城镇化水平的面板数据,通过单位根检验、协整性检验和面板数据模型,探讨中国R&D投入对地区城镇化发展水平的影响。结果表明：①中国各省区城镇化水平与R&D投入存在长期稳定关系,但城镇化水平的科技支撑基础仍处于较低水平,并且不同省区的R&D投入产出存在较大差异。②总体上看来,R&D人员投入产出弹性高于R&D经费投入,说明城镇化对R&D人员投入的依赖性更大。③R&D投入对城镇化的作用与其所处的城镇化阶段有关,同时,R&D投入与城镇化的协调度也是影响R&D投入产出的关键因素。④误差修正模型结果表明,R&D短期投入对城镇化的影响存在一定的滞后效应。     

静态密闭状态下大甸子井孔隙度与体积压缩系数时序特征分析

以内蒙古大甸子观测井为数据收集对象,利用原始水位观测数据得到该井静态密闭下气压系数、水位与气压的关系以及孔隙度与气压系数的关系,从而分析该井静态密闭状态下孔隙度与体积压缩系数时序特征。结果表明,孔隙度与固体骨架的体积压缩系数和含水层内水的体积压缩系数间存在幂函数关系;在第一象限内,各井含水层介质固体骨架的体积压缩系数随着孔隙度的增大而增大;含水层内水的体积压缩系数随着孔隙度的增大而减小。