三种探空资料在各类强对流天气中的应用对比分析

使用2007和2008年5-9月常规探空资料、微波辐射计和风廓线数据构建的特种探空资料以及BJ-RUC模式探空资料计算的常用热动力物理参量,比较了在冰雹、雷暴大风和短时暴雨等强天气中特种探空和常规探空的各参量之间的差异,探讨了特种探空在强对流天气判别中定量应用的可靠性,最后选取不同强对流天气个例,详细对比分析了三种探空...     

国家级强对流潜势预报业务进展与检验评估

为了推动我国现阶段天气预报业务向专业化和精细化方向发展,国家气象中心自2009年组建了强天气预报中心并开展了国家级强对流落区潜势预报业务。开发了基于加密自动气象站WS报、全国闪电定位监测网、FY系列卫星以及雷达组网等多种实况观测资料的强对流实时监测产品,制定了基于MICAPS 3.0业务平台的《中尺度天气分析规范》,研发了基于全球模式T639以及区域中尺度模式GRAPES-RUC、WRF-EPS等模式输出量的强对流动力热力参数的诊断分析产品及潜势预报方法,建立了国家级强对流天气实时预报业务并发布雷暴、雷雨大风和冰雹、短时强降水等分类落区预报指导产品。对2010年4—9月国家级预报产品进行的客观检验结果表明：6小时间隔雷暴TS评分为18%,短时强降雨为2.6%,冰雹和雷雨大风为2.1%;12小时间隔雷暴TS评分为18.4%,短时强降雨为4.1%,冰雹和雷雨大风为1.3%。     

计算几何法在风暴识别中的应用

风暴的合并与分裂对其发展有着重要的影响,是风暴识别与追踪工作中的难点问题。为了避免由资料处理过程引起的虚假合并,以及通过识别风暴的合并与分裂临界区域,对判断风暴的发展趋势提供有效的追踪参数,基于SCIT(Storm Cell Identification and Tracking Algorithm)风暴识别的基础,利用计算几何的凸壳与DT(Delaunay Triangle)算法,结合风暴内部的结构信息,识别出了风暴带以及风暴带合并与分裂的临界区域。并且给出了实现的个例以及算法的评价结果,为风暴合并与分裂的追踪工作提供了一个新的参数。     

冀中南一次强对流暴雨的数值模拟

利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和常规资料对2009年5月发生在河北中南部的强对流暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟。低空700 hPa流场的中尺度扰动和涡度场的加强说明：发生在河北中南部的短时强对流暴雨与东北回流密切相关 ,低空东北风的辐合,使地转平衡遭到破坏,从而引发水平辐合和辐散及铅直运动,在地转适应过程中,700 hPa中尺度环流偶在河北中南部形成并加强,对应的正负涡度对也出现并增大,使辐合上升运动增强,强对流暴雨出现在辐合场和辐散场之间区域。高空急流中心右前侧辐合导致气流下沉,向南的一支引起低空北风加大。加强的东北回流与低空较强偏南气流在河北南部相遇,耦合上升。可见,垂直环流的形成及东北回流的加强是此次强对流暴雨产生的重要原因。     

一次夏季雷暴天气过程中闪电活动特征分析

利用探空资料、多普勒天气雷达和闪电定位仪数据,分析了2009年7月30日发生在南京地区一次雷暴天气过程的雷达及闪电数据时空演变特征。结果表明：对流有效位能Ecap比起K指数（IK）等对于对流潜势预报具有更明显的指示作用,0 ℃层和-10 ℃层高度的降低有利于雷暴云的雷电活动;整个过程以负闪为主导,闪电强度越大,闪电频数也越高,每次闪电峰值后,都对应一次谷值;闪电数据与多普勒天气雷达回波叠加后分析发现,回波的生消演变对应着闪电频数和强度的生消演变,负闪主要落在强回波中心区域,正闪零星分布于回波强度梯度较大的区域;雷达径向速度图像特征变化更能揭示闪电发生发展的机制,逆风区对应雷暴中心区域,不仅是强降水的中心区也是闪电的中心区,对逆风区的识别监测能够更好的指导雷暴预警报工作;利用雷达数据计算的云底动能施力参量,能够很好的描述支持闪电起电的热动力特征,云底动能施力对雷电增长的贡献有一段持续传输过程,该参量峰值比频闪峰值和强度峰值都约有0.5 h的提前量。     

磁层顶日下点距离R0与磁暴Dst指数的相关性

利用2004—2006年ACE、WIND卫星观测的太阳风数据和相应时期反映磁暴大小的〖WTB1X〗D〖WTB1〗st指数,针对200个不同级别的磁暴事件,分析了磁层顶日下点距离〖WTB1X〗R0与磁暴D〖WTB1〗st指数的线性相关性。分析显示,在极端太阳风条件下,〖WTB1X〗D〖WTB1〗st指数时间序列比借助于Chao Model计算出的磁层顶日下点距离〖WTB1X〗R〖WTB1〗0的时间序列延迟了约3 h。经修正时间延迟后,对磁层顶日下点距离〖WTB1X〗R0与磁暴D〖WTB1〗st指数的线性相关性进行分析。结果表明:发生超级磁暴时,二者线性相关系数的均值为077;大磁暴时,线性相关系数的均值为074;中等磁暴时,线性相关系数的均值为047。此外,用最小二乘数据拟合得到了不同级别磁暴时的〖WTB1X〗R0 D〖WTB1〗st关系图。     

Hydrodynamics and sediment-transport in the nearshore of Poverty Bay, New Zealand: Observations of nearshore sediment segregation and oceanic storms

Nearshore regions act as an interface between the terrestrial environment and deeper waters. As such, they play important roles in the dispersal of fluvial sediment and the transport of sand to and from the shoreline. This study focused on the nearshore of Poverty Bay, New Zealand, and the processes controlling the dispersal of sediment from the main source, the Waipaoa River. Hydrodynamics and sediment-transport in water shallower than 15 m were observed from April through mid-September 2006. This deployment afforded observations during 3-4 periods of elevated river discharge and 5 dry storms.Similar wind, river discharge, wave, current, and turbidity patterns were characterized during three of the wet storms. At the beginning of each event, winds blew shoreward, increasing wave heights to 2-3 m within Poverty Bay. As the cyclonic storms moved through the system the winds reversed direction and became seaward, reducing the local wave height and orbital velocity while river discharge remained elevated. At these times, high river discharge and relatively small waves enabled fluvially derived suspended sediment to deposit in shallow water. Altimetry measurements indicated that at least 7 cm was deposited at a 15 m deep site during a single discharge event. Turbidity and seabed observations showed this deposition to be removed, however, as large swell waves from the Southern Ocean triggered resuspension of the material within three weeks of deposition. Consequently, two periods of dispersal were associated with each discharge pulse, one coinciding with fluvial delivery, and a second driven by wave resuspension a few weeks later. These observations of nearfield sediment deposition contradict current hypotheses of very limited sediment deposition in shallow water offshore of small mountainous rivers when floods and high-energy, large wave and fast current, oceanic conditions coincide.Consistently shoreward near-bed currents, observed along the 10 m isobath of Poverty Bay, were attributed to a combination of estuarine circulation, Stokes drift, and wind driven upwelling. Velocities measured at the 15 m isobath, however, were directed more alongshore and diverged from those at the 10 m isobath. The divergence in the currents observed at the 10 and 15 m locations seemed to facilitate segregation of coarse and fine sediment, with sand transported near-bed toward the beach, while suspended silts and clays were exported to deeper water.     

On the dominance of pre-existing swells over wind seas along the west coast of India

Wave data collected off Goa along the west coast of India during February 1996-May 1997 has been subjected to spectral analysis, and swell and wind sea parameters have been estimated by separation frequency method. Dominance of swells and wind seas on monthly and seasonal basis has been estimated, and the analysis shows that swells dominate Goa coastal region not only during southwest monsoon (93%), but also during the post-monsoon (67%) season. Wind seas are dominant during the pre-monsoon season (51%). The mean wave periods (T_m) during southwest monsoon are generally above 5 s, whereas T_m is below 5 s during other seasons. Co-existence of multiple peaks (from NW and NE) was observed in the locally generated part of the wave spectrum, especially during the post-monsoon season. NCEP reanalysis winds have been used to analyse active fetch available in the Indian Ocean, from where the predominant swells propagate to the west coast of India. A numerical model was set up to simulate waves in the Indian Ocean using flexible mesh bathymetry. The correlation coefficients between measured and modelled significant wave heights and mean wave periods are 0.96 and 0.85, respectively. Numerical simulations reproduced the swell characteristics in the Indian Ocean, and from the model results potential swell generation areas are identified. The characteristics of swells associated with tropical storms that prevail off Goa during 1996 have also been analysed.     

不同量级磁暴对新沂地震台地电阻率的影响

探讨强烈磁暴对新沂地震台地电阻率测最的影响.根据磁暴效应,得出对地电阻率的影响,从而进行不同量级磁暴对江苏省新沂地震台地电阻率的影响分析.同时分析各测向产生的差异性及原因.由于新沂地震台地电阻率测量采用正反向双向供电,磁暴对地电阻率的影响量很小,其形态仍存在同步变化.如果采取减少每次测量的供电时间、供电次数,加大供电电...     

Is most hummocky cross‐stratification formed by large‐scale ripples?

Although normal isotropic hummocky cross‐stratification is commonly interpreted to be the deposit of large‐scale ripples, there are many reasons why this may not usually be the case. These reasons include: (i) that the stratification produced by large‐scale ripples does not particularly look like isotropic hummocky cross‐stratification; (ii) that it is difficult reconciling the abundance of HCS with the restricted hydraulic stability of large‐scale ripples in silt to fine sand (i.e. the grain sizes in which hummocky cross‐stratification is usually found); (iii) that the distribution of hummocky cross‐stratification within ancient storm beds is not the distribution that would be expected from large‐scale ripples; (iv) that the flows calculated to have formed ancient examples of hummocky cross‐stratification would be expected to generate an upper stage plane bed rather than ripples; and (v) that it is difficult to explain why large‐scale ripples would predominate in the proximal parts of storm beds when modern storm flows commonly exceed the threshold for entrainment. In contrast to the various hypotheses which propose that isotropic hummocky cross‐stratification is generated by ripples, an alternative hypothesis which suggests that it is generated by instabilities, does seem to adequately explain the origin of hummocky cross‐stratification. However, it is difficult to accept this hypothesis given that the origin of the proposed instabilities is unproven. These conclusions highlight the continued uncertainty regarding the process, which generates hummocky cross‐stratification.