一种基于卫星遥感的临近预报方法

中尺度对流系统(MCS)是形成强对流天气的主要原因,云团在MCS生命周期中的分裂合并问题是临近预报的难点。为解决这一问题,本文提出了FCC方法,该方法使用质心位移和FY-2卫星数据预测多个对流单体的运动轨迹。多个案例分析证明,FCC算法在MCS的各个生命周期均能进行有效的预测,包括初生、成熟和消散阶段。此外,通过列联表方法验证了所提算法的有效性。     

全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。     

粉砂质海岸大风天泥沙运动研究

根据黄河三角洲五号桩海域6级大风前后现场悬沙、沉积物和实测水流资料,研究了淤泥质粉砂海岸大风过程后泥沙分布特征和运动规律。发现大风天气海底泥沙对波浪作用反应灵敏,悬沙和底沙分布规律与波浪作用吻合,为波浪作用下海底泥沙运动的理论研究以及海区工程开发提供了科学依据。     

Effects of winds,tides and storm surges on ocean surface waves in the Sea of Japan

Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forcing, tides and storm surges on the waves are investigated using a wave model, a high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale model and a hydrodynamic ocean circulation model. Five month-long wave model simulations are inducted to examine the sensitivity of ocean waves to various wind forcing fields, tides and storm surges during January 1997. Compared with observed mean wave parameters, results indicate that the high frequency variability in the surface wind filed has very great effect on wave simulation. Tides and storm surges have a significant impact on the waves in nearshores of the Tsushima-kaihyō, but not for other regions in the Sea of Japan. High spatial and temporal resolution and good quality surface wind products will be crucial for the prediction of surface waves in the JES and other marginal seas, especially near the coastal regions.     

0608号超强台风"桑美"的主要特点和风暴潮影响特征分析

0608号超强台风"桑美"正面袭击了温州,给温州造成了严重的人员伤亡和经济损失。本文利用相关气象和海洋资料分析了台风"桑美"的主要特点及其风暴潮影响特征。     

基于FY-4A卫星和随机森林算法的西藏山南市雷电短临预报方法

针对青藏高原地区雷电短临预报缺乏雷达资料的问题,采用FY-4A卫星多通道数据、欧洲中心第5代再分析资料(ERA5)中的对流指数、闪电定位仪资料等多源监测数据,根据雷电的发生、发展机理,提出了18个关键预报因子,利用随机森林算法建立了适用于西藏山南地区的雷电短临预报模型。统计分析各预报因子在有无雷电天气样本中的概率密度分布与随机森林模型得到的特征重要度指标,结果表明提出的预报因子物理意义明确,建立的模型可信度较高。利用随机森林算法分别对未来10 min、20 min、30 min建立雷电预报模型,并与光流外推预报方法进行对比检验,结果表明：随机森林模型预报效果命中率(POD)、临界成功指数(CSI)均高于光流法,空报率(FAR)也相对较低;未来20 min的随机森林预报模型CSI评分最高,整体预报效果最佳。     

近岸海浪、风暴潮及海啸灾害远程实时监测系统的现场试验及应用

利用自主研发的近岸海浪、风暴潮及海啸灾害远程实时监测系统,在广东省阳江市闸坡附近海域进行了远程实时监测试验.文章介绍了监测系统的组成,对2007年9月1日-10月3日的观测记录进行了分析,计算出台风增水、波高和波周期,采用低通滤波方法获得重力外波.实验结果表明,研发的近岸海浪、风暴潮及海啸灾害远程实时监测系统可供实际推广应用.     

Developing a building policy for the erosion zone: Solutions to some key (Dutch) questions

In those coastal communities where the most seaward strip of mainland consists of dunes, these dunes often serve as a flexible sea defence. In addition, this strip offers large potential for housing and commercial enterprises. Unfortunately, due to severe storm surges part of this strip (the erosion zone) is subject to erosion, and as a result of which any buildings or infrastructure located here, are destroyed. Therefore, as we will illustrate in this paper, a building policy for this zone should reflect a compromise between two opposite interests: exploitation of the existing potential and, prevention of an unacceptable high risk due to erosion. Accordingly, the authors have developed a framework for such a building policy on the basis of which the desirability of various different types of investments and the location within the erosion zone of such investments can be determined. The examples that are used to illustrate this framework in this paper are limited to experiences in The Netherlands as relevant data and experiences are available and relatively easy accessible here. Nevertheless, the approach as is described is generic and applicable worldwide suggesting that the discovered unused potential for exploitation is not just limited to The Netherlands.     

汕尾风暴潮频率与海堤改造初探

通过研究1970-2005年间汕尾港遭受风暴潮袭击的程度,对汕尾港风暴潮增水情况进行分析,用Pearson-Ⅲ分布和Gumbel分布两种概率统计方法分别对汕尾港不同重现期潮位值进行推算,并以此为基础结合走访相关单位和实地踏勘收集汕尾海堤历史和现状资料、风暴潮频率和海平面变化情况等,运用海堤工程设计防潮相关标准探讨汕尾已建海堤存在的问题,并针对性地提出改造建议,为汕尾市海堤的修复加固和管理提供参考.     

Sensitivity of hurricane surge to morphological parameters of coastal wetlands

Given the history and future risk of storm surge in the United States, functional storm protection techniques are needed to protect vital sectors of the economy and coastal communities. It is widely hypothesized that coastal wetlands offer protection from storm surge and wave action, though the extent of this protection is unknown due to the complexities of flow through vegetation. Here we present the sensitivity of storm-surge numerical modeling results to various coastal wetlands characteristics. An idealized grid domain and 400-km² marsh feature were used to evaluate the effects of marsh characteristics on hurricane surge, including the effects of bottom friction, elevation, and continuity (the ratio of healthy marsh to open water area within the total wetland area).Through coupled hydrodynamic and wave model simulations, it is confirmed that increased bottom friction reduces storm-surge levels for most storms. However, increases in depth associated with marsh elevation loss generally results in a reduction of surge. As marsh continuity is decreased, coastal surge increases as a result of enhanced surge conveyance into and out of the marsh. Storm surge is parameterized in terms of marsh morphology, namely marsh elevation, frictional characteristics, and degree of segmentation, which will assist in the justification for and optimization of marsh restoration in terms of storm protection.