琼州海峡海口站近岸风暴增水概率风险分析

基于海口站1976~1997年逐时潮位和逐日最大风速资料,利用阿基米德Copula函数构建海口年最大增水与相应日期最大风速的联合概率分布模型。结果表明:1)广义极值分布可作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期最大风速的边缘分布。两个序列之间存在强正相关关系,G-H Copula函数更适用于作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期的最大风速联合概率分布的连接函数。2)两变量联合作用的同频率增水高度设计值与增水的单变量边缘分布设计值之间的相对差值约为7.5%。3)条件概率1(P(Y≥y|X≥x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速的遭遇概率介于78.2%~80.9%,条件概率2(P(Y≥y|X≤x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速两者的遭遇概率小于4.8%。     

2018年秦皇岛风暴潮前后岸基站及浮标主要水质参数变化分析

对2018年8月秦皇岛风暴潮期间3个入海口岸基站及邻近海域浮标的监测数据进行分析,结果显示:风暴潮导致入海口水体中COD、总磷、总氮和氨氮含量均明显升高;风暴潮2 d之后,3个入海口邻近海域均发生赤潮,此次赤潮的发生与风暴潮导致陆源入海污染物骤然大幅升高有关。此次风暴潮导致秦皇岛人造河口、大蒲河口和七里海3个岸基监测站的COD监测日均值最高分别达到15.83 mg/L、8.70 mg/L和7.92 mg/L,约升高至前期的2倍、1.5倍和2倍;人造河口总氮变化不大,大蒲河口和七里海总氮升高30%左右;大蒲河口总磷变化不大,人造河口总磷为前期的3.5倍,升高幅度最大,七里海总磷为风暴潮之前两日的2倍,但未超过前一周的最高浓度;风暴潮当天及第二天,人造河口、大蒲河口、七里海氨氮日均值陆续达到最高,分别为2.34 mg/L、1.11 mg/L和0.12 mg/L,分别为风暴潮前两日的7倍、3.5倍和10倍。风暴潮过后,入海口临近海域发生赤潮,浮标监测到叶绿素a最高值为76.4μg/L,pH和溶解氧也大幅升高。分析表明,此次风暴潮导致的入海口污染物突然大幅升高为风暴潮之后的赤潮发生提供了充足的营养基础。     

浙江朱家尖岛东沙海滩对热带风暴“娜基莉”的响应及风暴后的恢复

海滩对风暴的响应及风暴后海滩的恢复过程一直以来都是国内外海滩研究的热点。本文通过对浙江舟山市朱家尖岛东沙海滩地形地貌的现场调查,对比分析了热带风暴"娜基莉"影响下东沙海滩剖面的蚀积变化,探讨了海滩在热带风暴发生后的恢复情况。结果表明,在"娜基莉"影响期间,因风暴浪为向岸浪,东沙海滩几乎遭受全线侵蚀,12个剖面单宽侵蚀总量为73.46 m3/m,其中海滩直线段较两个遮蔽段侵蚀显著。由于海滩在风暴前进方向的左侧,且"娜基莉"距东沙较远,使得东沙海滩普遍侵蚀但强度较小。东沙海滩在热带风暴后的恢复过程中,不同部位的地貌调整和冲淤变化不同,下岬角遮蔽段基本趋于稳定,直线段和上岬角遮蔽段在恢复过程中因受海滩季节性调整的影响呈现持续侵蚀。     

南海风暴潮对风场和外围海水敏感性研究

为探索来自西北太平洋台风风暴潮与南海局地生成台风风暴潮不同,本研究在假设两种台风气象条件相同情况下,研究随台风而来外围海水所形成增水对南海沿岸的影响。以0814"黑格比"强台风风暴潮为基础,使用ROMS(regional ocean modeling system)模式进行数值模拟并通过设计对比试验方法进行研究,研究发现在台风登陆时引起的增水最大,最大增水出现在台风路径右侧,其中在沿岸区域,外围海水形成增水约占总增水10%,且大约3 h后出现增水回震现象。同时,设计对比试验,研究来自西北太平洋台风风暴潮对台风路径、台风强度、台风移动速度和流入角等气象条件敏感性,并获得与前人一致的结果。     

重庆红池坝地电场变化分析

利用磁静日时序叠加方法和FFT频谱分析方法对红池坝地电场观测资料进行逐月处理,并与巫山建坪台地磁观测资料进行对比,分析红池坝地电场静日变化特征;计算红池坝台站磁暴期间产生的感应电场,与地电场观测数据对比,分析地电暴的特征。结果表明,静日随着月份的变化,相位发生变化,与巫山建坪地磁Sq变化一致;1月、2月、11月、12月的地电场日变幅明显小于其他月份;地电场显著周期成分与磁静日地磁场相同,并且通过周期成分的逐月对比分析得到,地电场与地磁D分量的不同周期成分的频谱值随时间的变化基本一致;某一方向的地电暴与该垂直方向的磁暴和该地区的电性结构有关;地电暴观测值与地磁感应电流计算值呈线性关系;地电暴变化与K值呈指数关系。     

Storm surge induced flux through multiple tidal passes of Lake Pontchartrain estuary during Hurricanes Gustav and Ike

In September 2008, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike generated major storm surges which impacted the Lake Pontchartrain estuary in Louisiana. This paper presents analyses of in situ measurements acquired during these storm events. The main data used in the analyses were from three bottom mounted moorings equipped with conductivity, temperature, and depth sensors, acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), and a semi-permanent laterally mounted horizontal acoustic Doppler profiler (ADP). These moorings were deployed in the three major tidal channels that connect Lake Pontchartrain with the coastal ocean. A process similar to tidal straining was observed: the vertical shear of the horizontal velocity was negligible during the inundation stage, but a shear of 0.8 m/s over a less than 5 m water column was recorded during the receding stage, 2–3 times the normal tidal oscillations. The surge reached its peak in the Industrial Canal 1.4–2.1 h before those in the other two channels. The inward flux of water lasted for a shorter time period than that of the outward flux. The inward flux was also observed to have much smaller magnitude than the outward flux (∼960–1200 vs. 2100–3100 million m³). The imbalance was believed to have been caused by the additional water into Lake Pontchartrain through some small rivers and inundation over the land plus rainfall from the hurricanes. The flux through the Industrial Canal was 8–12%, while the flux through the other two tidal passes ranged between 17% and 70% of the total, but mostly split roughly half-half of the remaining (∼88–92% of the total).     

Sensitivity of hurricane surge to morphological parameters of coastal wetlands

Given the history and future risk of storm surge in the United States, functional storm protection techniques are needed to protect vital sectors of the economy and coastal communities. It is widely hypothesized that coastal wetlands offer protection from storm surge and wave action, though the extent of this protection is unknown due to the complexities of flow through vegetation. Here we present the sensitivity of storm-surge numerical modeling results to various coastal wetlands characteristics. An idealized grid domain and 400-km² marsh feature were used to evaluate the effects of marsh characteristics on hurricane surge, including the effects of bottom friction, elevation, and continuity (the ratio of healthy marsh to open water area within the total wetland area).Through coupled hydrodynamic and wave model simulations, it is confirmed that increased bottom friction reduces storm-surge levels for most storms. However, increases in depth associated with marsh elevation loss generally results in a reduction of surge. As marsh continuity is decreased, coastal surge increases as a result of enhanced surge conveyance into and out of the marsh. Storm surge is parameterized in terms of marsh morphology, namely marsh elevation, frictional characteristics, and degree of segmentation, which will assist in the justification for and optimization of marsh restoration in terms of storm protection.     

近岸海浪、风暴潮及海啸灾害远程实时监测系统的现场试验及应用

利用自主研发的近岸海浪、风暴潮及海啸灾害远程实时监测系统,在广东省阳江市闸坡附近海域进行了远程实时监测试验.文章介绍了监测系统的组成,对2007年9月1日-10月3日的观测记录进行了分析,计算出台风增水、波高和波周期,采用低通滤波方法获得重力外波.实验结果表明,研发的近岸海浪、风暴潮及海啸灾害远程实时监测系统可供实际推广应用.     

ZDR柱识别方法在海南地区的应用

基于双偏振天气雷达的相关研究大部分集中在雷达如何识别粒子相态、精细化探测云系垂直结构方面,专门针对差分反射率因子ZDR柱的识别研究相对较少。通过对海南地区对流云系特征进行分析研究,提出一套基于双偏振雷达探测数据（2020—2021年）的ZDR柱识别方法,结合多源资料对发生在海南地区的2次对流天气过程展开分析,〖JP2〗验证ZDR柱识别效果。结果表明：①ZDR柱通常在对流云系前中期较为深厚,最大可达0 ℃层以上3～5 km,〖JP〗在空间分布上ZDR柱与雷达径向速度的辐合有密切关系,其正负径向速度对的差值与ZDR柱的强弱变化规律呈正相关,并且深厚的ZDR柱较大概率出现在对流云系运动方向的前缘位置,与对流云团雷达反射率因子较大区域（≥50 dBz）有明显的对应关系;②ZDR柱最大深度的变化趋势同雷达回波顶高和垂直累计液态水含量有弱相关性,雷达回波顶高和垂直累计液态水含量的变化通常滞后于ZDR柱深度的变化（约12～15 min）。该方法具备识别海南岛地区ZDR柱现象的能力,可以在分析强对流天气过程、人工影响天气指挥和短临灾害天气预警等方面发挥应用效益。     

取土器几何尺寸对饱和软黏土样结构的扰动研究

基于颗粒流软件模拟,以吹填淤泥为例,分析了取土器的内径、切角、壁厚等尺寸参数对高黏性软土微观动力学特性的影响;通过分层方法,比较了7组土样层间颗粒特征拐点的运动行为。模拟结果表明:土样的颗粒在底部形成对流位移场,对流处上方颗粒主要受拉膨胀,对流处下方颗粒主要受压收缩,由此造成孔隙率的规律变化和层理的弯曲变形。7组参数对应土样的孔隙率曲线与初始孔隙率曲线的交点同颗粒位移场的对流位置存在协同关系。土样层理表现为向下弯曲变形,层间颗粒位移行为存在特征拐点,拐点之间颗粒扰动行为不明显;反之,颗粒扰动行为较大,这种变形特征可拟合为下开口的旋转抛物面,且曲面方程的曲面形状拟合系数a值能初步评估7组土样的扰动程度。层间特征拐点的连线可再拟合为旋转抛物面,抛物面体积与土样体积的比值可用来评估土样的原状性。