Global response to tropical diabatic heating variability in boreal winter

Global teleconnections associated with tropical convective activities were investigated, based on monthly data of 29 Northern Hemisphere winters: December, January, February, and March (DJFM). First, EOF analyses were performed on the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data to characterize the convective ac- tivity variability in the tropical Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The first EOF mode of the convective activity was highly correlated with the ENSO. The second EOF mode had an east-west dipole structure, and the third EOF mode had three convective activity centers. Two distinct teleconnection patterns were identified that were associated, respectively, with the second and third EOF modes. A global primitive equation model was used to investigate the physical mechanism that causes the global circulation anoma- lies. The model responses to anomalous tropical thermal forcings that mimic the EOF patterns matched the general features of the observed circulation anomalies well, and they were mainly controlled by linear processes. The importance of convective activities in the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific to the extended- and long-range forecasting capability in the extratropics is discussed.     

中尺度强对流云系相互作用与热带气旋形成的数值模拟

本文是热带气旋形成的多尺度组合理论的续篇它以新的方法——数值模拟的结果支持了这一理论。特别是它进一步证实了“热带大气涡旋增幅效应”的存在,也进一步定量地解释了热带气旋前期低压环流的形成。     

Magnetic tracers,a probe of the solar convective layers

Abstract

A meridional circulation of sunspots has been measured through the digital analysis of the Meudon spectroheliograms from 1978 to 1983. Old and young sunspots follow a zonal meridional circulation, in several bands of latitude, in which two adjacent bands have opposite motions. This meridional circulation pattern is time-dependent. Using the H _α filaments as magnetic field tracers, a large-scale magnetic pattern has been found that was also obtained independently by direct measurement of the magnetic field (Hoeksema, 1988).

The coincidence of a large-scale magnetic pattern with a zonal meridional circulation suggests the existence of azimuthal rolls below the surface, and these azimuthal rolls can explain a number of properties of the solar cycle. New rolls occur with increasing proximity to the Equator, thereby indicating the direction of propagation of the dynamo wave. The occurrence of rolls is very favorable to the emergence of the magnetic regions. The rolls also influence the magnetic complexity of the active regions. They modulate the surface rotation through the Coriolis force, which accelerates or decelerates the fluid particles. They therefore offer a plausible explanation of the torsional oscillation pattern.

There are a number of problems raised by such an unexpected circulation pattern: for example, the coexistence of axisymmeric rolls with hypothetical giant cells, the location of the dynamo source below or within the convective zone, and the coupling of the radiative interior and the convective layers. To resolve these important issues, continuous observational studies are needed of the manifestation of solar activity, as well as of radius and luminosity variations. So, we have aimed our paper at an audience of theoreticians in the hope that they take up the challenges we describe.     

Dynamic analysis of flexible rectangular fluid containers subjected to horizontal ground motion

In this paper, an analytical method is proposed to determine the dynamic response of 3‐D rectangular liquid storage tanks with four flexible walls, subjected to horizontal seismic ground motion. Fluid–structure interaction effects on the dynamic responses of partially filled fluid containers, incorporating wall flexibility, are accounted for in evaluating impulsive pressure. The velocity potential in which boundary conditions are satisfied is solved by the method of separation of variables using the principle of superposition. The impulsive pressure distribution is then computed. Solutions based on 3‐D modeling of the rectangular containers are obtained by applying the Rayleigh–Ritz method using the vibration modes of flexible plates with suitable boundary conditions. Trigonometrical functions that satisfy boundary conditions of the storage tank such that the flexibility of the wall is thoroughly considered are used to define the admissible vibration modes. The analysis is then performed in the time domain. Moreover, an analytical procedure is developed for deriving a simple formula that evaluates convective pressure and surface displacements in a similar rigid tank. The variation of dynamic response characteristics with respect to different tank parameters is investigated. A mechanical model, which takes into account the deformability of the tank wall, is developed. The parameters of such a model can be obtained from developed charts, and the maximum seismic loading can be predicted by means of a response spectrum characterizing the design earthquake. Accordingly, a simplified but sufficiently accurate design procedure is developed to improve code formulas for the seismic design of liquid storage tanks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

孤立云团造成的一次强对流天气分析

利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料、卫星和雷达拼图产品等,结合WRF中尺度数值模拟,对2013年5月22日发生在山西省中南部的强对流天气进行了分析。结果表明:此次强对流天气过程中,河套地区正涡度平流的持续输送是500 h Pa切断涡旋形成、维持和发展的重要原因;低层冷平流沿其前方输入,后部有更强的暖平流输入,使涡旋不断加深发展,在其附近激发孤立对流云团,孤立云团上空存在高层辐散、低层辐合的垂直结构,使得其上空上升运动持续加强,孤立对流云团得以维持和发展,其间形成的γ-中尺度和α-中尺度强对流云团是造成强对流天气的直接原因,而地面海上高压后部水汽的持续加强和高空脊前干空气南侵,产生明显干锋生作用,是强对流的重要触发机制。雷达组合反射率因子拼图显示,此次强对流过程是由单体回波发展合并加强造成的,这些单体回波的演变经历了"单体—加强合并—带状回波—弓形回波—减弱消亡"的过程;整个过程分为2个阶段,其回波面积、强度、移动速度不同,造成强对流天气特征差异明显。此次强对流天气存在3种类型,其温湿廓线结构及环境参数特征存在明显差异,可作为判断强对流天气类型的指标。     

云南对流性大风天气的潜势预报及雷达回波特征

为提高云南省对流性大风短时临近预报水平,使用历年大风日数和上百个对流性大风个例的探空、雷达资料,分析了T lnp图、对流参数和雷达回波特征,总结提炼云南省对流性大风的预报预警指标。结果表明,非对流性大风和对流性大风具有不同的时空分布特征。非对流性大风受大尺度系统影响,主要出现在冬春季节,滇东、滇中和滇西北影响最重。对流性大风多受中小尺度系统影响,主要出现于夏季,呈现局地性特征。对流参数、T lnp图在对流性大风的潜势预报中有一定指示意义。雷达产品在对流性大风的临近预报中有较好的反映。回波顶高和垂直累积液态水含量在对流性大风发生前和发生时的跃变特征是预警对流性大风发生的关键因子,可提供6~12 min的提前预警时间。     

雷暴外流边界与郑州强对流天气

利用2002～2004三年5～8月郑州714CD多普勒雷达回波资料,以90km内向郑州方向移动的回波强度Z≥50dBz、高度H≥9km的回波和郑州附近新生的50dBz以上强对流回波为研究对象,通过分析雷达回波,找出了雷暴外流边界和郑州强对流天气的关系,并和无外流边界出现的强回波对郑州天气的影响进行了对比,得出了对郑州强对流天气临近预报有意义的参考结论。     

用尺度分离法诊断分析夏季中尺度天气系统

选取1998—2004年5—9月逐日的实时观测资料,在100~120°E,30~50°N范围内,对08时和20时高空各层流场进行尺度分离,计算出各时刻的平滑场和分离场。结果表明,在原始场上没有表现出来的中尺度系统在分离场上能够清楚地表现出来,分析研究这些中尺度天气系统的移动和演变及产生的天气特点,总结出影响大同市对流性强降水、普通大降水的主要中尺度系统;建立对流性强降水、大降水的预报模型,为天气预报提供依据。     

用云和辐射传输模式研究对流性降水云微物理及辐射特性

利用中国气象科学研究院的三维对流云模式模拟了 1 998年发生在我国武汉地区的特大暴雨过程中的对流云。在模拟云的成熟阶段 ,模拟结果和地面最大降水量实况及热带测雨卫星TRMM (TropicalRainfallMeasureMission)的降水雷达PR(Pre cipitationRadar)的零度层高度和降水粒子达到的高度较接近。将该云物理模式的输出结果输入到Liu的三维辐射模式的输入场 ,模拟了以TRMM的微波成像仪TMI(TRMMMicrowaveImager)的扫描角为入射角 ,频率为 85 5GHz和 37 0GHz的星载微波辐射仪接受到的亮温 ,模拟的结果表明云中各微物理量的分布对上行微波辐射的影响较大。     

不平衡场在甘肃平凉市强对流天气预报中的释用

通过对平凉市强对流天气发生发展的高空环流形势进行合成分析,归纳出平凉市强对流天气的500 hPa典型场模型和环境场特征;利用T213数值预报格点资料对2008年6～9月逐日资料计算不平衡场,探讨了不平衡场与平凉市强对流天气的对应关系,通过实例分析和业务应用,该释用方法取得了较好的业务效果.