安徽汛期强对流天气对流参数对比分析

为更好地为安徽地区汛期的强对流预报服务,在大量历史个例的基础上,选取与强对流天气相关性好的温湿类、动力类、热力类等和业务使用较多的10个对流参数作为预报指示因子,利用2001～2009年逐日4次1°×1°NCEP FNL分析资料计算对流参数值,获得了历史各类强对流天气在汛期不同月份的对流参数特征平均值、气候值和历史排序。通过对各对流参数的分布特征进行对比分析,发现对流参数在不同月份同类强对流天气和不同类别强对流天气发生前表现出明显的差异性,其历史分布特征能反应出不同类别强对流天气出现概率的大小,因此业务预报中需综合考虑。     

对数正态分布下边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究

安全系数不能考虑边坡系统中实际存在的不确定性,可靠性理论缺乏丰富的工程实践经验,因此,将工程实践经验丰富的安全系数与先进的可靠性理论相结合,建立传统安全系数与可靠性相耦合的二元评价体系具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.设安全系数服从对数正态分布,取系列的最大可能安全系数（中值安全系数）和变异系数,计算得到最大可能安全系数及在不同变异系数下的破坏概率Pfo从而可由最大可能安全系数和可靠性（R=1-Pf）共同度量边坡的稳定性.将最大可能安全系数与边坡可靠性相乘,对最大可能安全系数进行折减,得到边坡可靠的安全系数.根据折减后安全系数的极限状态,可计算出不同最大可能安全系数的临界变异系数和临界破坏概率.根据不同最大可能安全系数及它的临界破坏概率,绘出边坡稳定性分区图,并建立安全系数和破坏概率相结合的边坡稳定性判别的二元指标体系.文中提供了小样本条件下,利用3倍方差原理估计参数方差的计算方法,并给出了边坡稳定性二元指标体系的研究实例.     

Evaluation of sensitivity of land surface hydrology representations with and without land–atmosphere feedback

This paper compares various ways of quantifying the importance of land–atmosphere feedback. A widely used land surface hydrology model is used in coupled (to a planetary boundary layer model) and uncoupled modes to compare the adequacy of different feedback indices. It is found that existing feedback indices are primarily based on ‘one factor at a time’ sensitivity analysis and cannot adequately capture the interaction between land and atmosphere. A new index is used which combines factorial design concepts and traditional sensitivity analysis. This index is shown to capture and quantify the strength of interaction between land surface parameters and atmosphere. To assess the effects of forcing characteristics on the stand alone model sensitivity, several ways to specify near-surface atmospheric conditions are evaluated. It is found that commonly used forcing conditions (e.g. model generated or observed time-series of near-surface atmospheric variables) may not be adequate to mimic the coupled model environment for evaluating the land surface representations. The partially coupled model sensitivity is shown to capture a major feedback loop related to water holding capacity, surface fluxes and near-surface atmospheric processes. These results suggest that sensitivity from the stand alone model should be interpreted with caution and future evaluations should strive to incorporate land–atmosphere feedback, at least within a partially coupled model. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generalization of TOPMODEL for a power law transmissivity profile

A generalization of the TOPMODEL equations for a power law vertical profile of hydraulic conductivity is introduced. The exponential profile of TOPMODEL is obtained as a limit case of the new general form. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

矿山地质环境评价中最佳评价尺度确定方法的研究及应用

矿山地质环境的评价对于矿产资源的开发利用、矿山环境的恢复治理有重要意义,在评价工作中最佳评价尺度的确定有助于提高评价结果的精确性和统一性。本次研究从矿山地质环境的评价内容出发,提出一种最佳评价尺度的确定方法。在不同尺度下,将评价区域按照边界划分成网格评价单元,通过定量化评价指标的尺度效应表现(异质性、一致性、信息量、破碎度),求出其随尺度变化的拟合函数,进而建立最佳评价尺度函数,并求出其评价适宜区间和最佳评价尺度。将该方法应用到福建省龙岩市新罗区、三明市大田县矿山地质环境评价中,得到新罗区和大田县的最佳评价尺度适宜区间分别为[997.8 m,1 194 m]、[955.5 m,1 297.8 m],最佳评价尺度分别为1 049.6 m、1 182.1 m。在该评价尺度区间内,所得到的评价结果基本一致,并且在最佳评价尺度下评价结果的效果更好,从而证明了该方法的可行性。研究表明,最佳评价尺度函数受到研究区范围、评价内容分布情况、自然地理情况等因素的综合影响。该研究成果可以为矿山地质环境评价工作中评价尺度的确定提供理论依据。     

Climatological Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulated by CWRF Regional Climate Model

Based on the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center from 1979 to 2016 and the ERSSTv4 sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional climate model CWRF was used to simulate the climate characteristics in East Asia. The results show that the CWRF model can well reproduce the average characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, including the location and intensity of the low-level continental cold high pressure and variation characteristics of wind field in high and low levels. The occurrence area and frequency of the north wind in the simulation and the reanalysis data were further calculated and compared. It is shown that they are basically consistent. The distribution of air temperature and precipitation over China are well represented by the model. The water vapor transport is also in good agreement with the reanalysis data. The water vapor from the Bay of Bengal plays a vital role in the precipitation over South China. The simulation results of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink show that the model can well simulate the thermal difference between the East Asian continent and the adjacent sea area. The analysis results indicate that CWRF model has the ability to simulate the main characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon.     

基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的玉米遥感估产方法

以内蒙古自治区开鲁县玉米作物为研究对象,将生育期内玉米遥感影像所提取的多种植被指数和实地采样点的测产数据作为训练值,利用BP(back propagation)神经网络和遗传算法优化BP(GA-BP)神经网络估产模型,得出网络预测的玉米产量数值。通过决定系数R 2和均方根误差RMSE,比较实测产量与预测产量之间的精度,BP神经网络模型R^2为0.8452,RMSE(%)为28.37;遗传算法优化BP神经网络模型R^2为0.9850,RMSE(%)为6.70,表明遗传算法优化BP神经网络估产模型具有一定可行性和可信度。     

基于GIS分析法识别城区水安全敏感区研究

近年来,随着海绵城市建设的推进,我国学者对于城市雨洪管理方面的研究日益加深。然而海绵城市的建设相关问题也日益凸显,首要问题就是对于城区大范围积水分析、水安全分析等技术相对薄弱,使得大范围海绵城市的建设流于形式。以宜良县建成区为例,查阅相关文献并对积水点实际调研。借助ArcGIS工具的强大功能对城区的各项指标进行综合分析,得出宜良县建成区水安全敏感区分布图,从而使得海绵城市建设可以根据各区域水安全敏感情况制定不同策略,对今后海绵城市的建设具有借鉴意义。     

地震信息网络数据的动态存储方法研究

为了提高地震信息网络数据存储的效率和稳定性,本文提出一种地震信息网络数据的动态储存方法。首先,设计和分析地震信息网络数据的动态存储系统中的硬件部分,基于Hadoop的分布式集群大数据动态存储系统,整合多台存储服务器,为一个集群系统,并平衡存储服务器负载情况,获取性能指标的比例值,通过加权公式获取综合性能参数,根据综合负载指标和服务器综合指标参数获取最佳存储服务器。对本文系统、高速数据存储系统和网络编码云存储系统进行大数据动态存储对比实验。实验结果表明:地震信息网络数据的动态存储耗时最短,存储效率最快;具有较高存储稳定性,且不会出现过载问题。