近16年暖季青藏高原东部两类中尺度对流系统（MCS）的统计特征

利用日本高知大学提供的逐小时分辨率静止卫星云顶黑体亮温（TBB）资料,使用模式匹配算法对2000～2016年（2005年除外）暖季（5～9月）青藏高原东部的两类中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行了识别和追踪,并利用人工验证订正了结果。基于此,利用NOAA的CMORPH（Climate Prediction Center Morphing）降水资料和NCEP的CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）再分析资料对高原东部两类MCS进行了统计和对比研究。研究发现,7月和8月是高原东部MCS生成最活跃的季节,然而,此两个月能够东移出高原MCS的比例最小;5月虽然MCS生成数最少,但是移出率高达近40%。对比表明,能够东移出高原的MCS（V-MCS）比不能移出的MCS（N-MCS）生命史更长,触发更早,短生命史个例占比更低。暖季各个月份,相比于N-MCS,V-MCS的对流更旺盛且发展更快,然而,由于其发生频数远低于N-MCS,总体而言,V-MCS对高原东部的降水贡献率仅为15%左右,是N-MCS相应数值的一半左右。高原东部两类MCS的环流特征差异显著,有利于V-MCS发生、维持和东移的因子主要位于对流层中低层（西风带短波槽、西风引导气流、低层风场切变）,而在对流层高层,N-MCS拥有更好的高空辐散条件（其对应的南亚高压更强）。     

雍家沟泥石流活动特征与堵江

自2008年汶川地震以来,四川省绵竹市清平乡雍家沟已暴发过多场泥石流,造成了严重的堵断公路和堵塞河流事件,其中,2012年“8·18”暴发的泥石流规模最大,造成绵远河全部堵塞.通过分析2010年“8·13”与2012年“8· 18”两场泥石流的降雨过程发现,雍家沟暴发泥石流的前期累积雨量在增加,激发雨强在降低.2008年汶川地震导致雍家沟的主沟和支沟内堆积了大量的松散固体物质.野外调查发现,雍家沟多次暴发泥石流的活动路径并不一致,其中,2012年“8· 18”泥石流主要沿1号支沟活动,沟道的侵蚀宽度随着与主沟沟口距离的增加而变窄,沟道内剩余堆积体厚度随着距离的增加呈现先增后减的规律,且沟道内的物质粒径分布具有随机性.对雍家沟在不同暴雨频率下暴发泥石流可能引起的堵江情况进行了分析,结果表明,在暴雨频率大于20％的情况下暴发泥石流便可造成堵江事件,甚至可将主河全部堵塞.     

Predicting human mobility with activity changes

Human mobility patterns can provide valuable information in understanding the impact of human behavioral regularities in urban systems, usually with a specific focus on traffic prediction, public health or urban planning. While existing studies on human movement have placed huge emphasis on spatial location to predict where people go next, the time dimension component is usually being treated with oversimplification or even being neglected. Time dimension is crucial to understanding and detecting human activity changes, which play a negative role in prediction and thus may affect the predictive accuracy. This study aims to predict human movement from a spatio-temporal perspective by taking into account the impact of activity changes. We analyze and define changes of human activity and propose an algorithm to detect such changes, based on which a Markov chain model is used to predict human movement. The Microsoft GeoLife dataset is used to test our methodology, and the data of two selected users is used to evaluate the performance of the prediction. We compare the predictive accuracy (R²) derived from the data with and without implementing the activity change detection. The results show that the R² is improved from 0.295 to 0.762 for the user with obvious activity changes and from 0.965 to 0.971 for the user without obvious activity changes. The method proposed by this study improves the accuracy in analyzing and predicting human movement and lays the foundation for related urban studies.     

On the scavenging of SO2 by cloud and raindrops: II. An experimental study of SO2 absorption and desorption for water drops in air

For the purpose of testing our previously described theory of SO₂ scavenging a laboratory investigation was carried out in the UCLA 33 m long rainshaft. Drops with radii between 250 and 2500 m were allowed to come to terminal velocity, after which they passed through a chamber of variable length filled with various SO₂ concentrations in air. After falling through a gas separating chamber consisting of a fluorocarbon gas the drops were collected and analyzed for their total S content in order to determine the rate of SO ₂ absorption.The SO₂ concentration in air studied ranged between 1 and 60% (v). Such relatively large concentrations were necessary due to the short times the drops were exposed to SO₂ in the present setup. The present experimental results were therefore not used to simulate atmospheric conditions but rather to test our previously derived theory which is applicable to any laboratory or atmospheric condition. Comparison of our studies with the results from our theory applied to our laboratory conditions led to predicted values for the S concentration in the drops which agreed well with those observed if the drops had radii smaller than 500 m. In order to obtain agreement between predicted and observed S concentrations in larger drops, an empirically derived eddy diffusivity for SO₂ in water had to be included in the theory to take into account the effect of turbulent mixing inside such large drops.In a subsequent set of experiments, drops initially saturated with S (IV) were allowed to fall through S-free air to determine the rate of SO ₂ desorption. The results of these studies also agreed well with the results of our theoretical model, thus justifying the reversibility assumption made in our theoretical models.In a final set of experiments, the effects of oxidation on SO₂ absorption was studied by means of drops containing various amounts of H₂O₂. For comparable exposure times to SO₂, the S concentration in drops with H₂O₂ was found to be up to 10 times higher than the concentration in drops in which no oxidation occurred.     

基于应力变化的余震预测研究综述

本文综述了近期基于应力变化的余震预测研究进展。从静态库仑应力触发角度对余震活动进行研究主要有两方面内容:一是集中于对主震触发余震机制的讨论;二是通过库仑应力变化分布区域与实际余震空间分布区域进行定性对比分析,并认为库仑应力变化为正的区域有利于余震的发生,而这正是余震活动与应力变化高度相关的重要证据。基于应力变化的余震预测研究的一项重要内容是建立在速率-状态依从摩擦定律基础之上的余震活动率研究,即将余震活动作为一系列独立的成核事件,从断层滑动触发地震的角度出发,结合静态库仑应力计算得到余震活动率,进而得到余震数量。余震活动是与断层面上的剪切应力变化相关联的,余震活动率受应力扰动幅度、应力加载速率、断层基本物理特性及背景地震活动率等的影响。考虑到“余震激发余震”的特点,ETAS 模型与静态库仑应力变化相结合的研究方法提供了一条统计学与物理学方法(应力变化)相结合、能更完整地刻画余震活动特征的可能途径。     

关中地区3次中小地震前后的重力变化

采用拟稳平差方法对关中地区近20 年流动重力观测资料重新进行了处理,并结合其它观测资料和研究结果,对区域内重力场变化过程、3次中小地震前后重力场变化机理、构造活动以及区内外地震间的关系等进行了较深入地分析和研究。     

基于COSMIC掩星数据分析中低纬度地区电子密度分布变化

利用COSMIC掩星2009年电子密度剖面数据,筛选数据进行网格划分,网格内数据统计平均,基于球谐函数计算模型值,分析电离层中低纬度地区最大电子密度的地磁季节变化、昼夜测分布相对变化,及地磁活动对电子密度的分布影响.结果表明,最大电子密度昼测值明显高于夜测值,在中纬度部分区域增大明显.电子密度昼测值在地磁活动期间高度150-550 km中低纬度范围为正相扰动,随纬度变化存在区域差异,随高度增加,扰动加强.     

张家口万全断裂特征研究

万全断裂是河北省张家口市万全县西边的一条第四纪控盆断裂,构造上位于山西断陷带与燕山断隆交汇部位,地貌上为低山丘陵与山前冲洪积平原分界,地质上为中生代地层与新生代地层分界。断裂走向NE,倾向SE,分为南、北2段。其东北端与张家口断裂相交,西南端与洗马林断裂相汇,共同控制着万全盆地的发展演化。本文从断裂附近地形地貌宏观显示、隐伏段地球物理探测及地质地貌调查等多方面,对该断裂的特征进行分析,最终给出万全断裂的构造特征及具体空间展布形态,填补了该条断裂的研究空白,为开展大城市活断层探测与研究,进行合理的城市规划和抗震设防提供依据。     

Application of Fourier series in managing the seasonality of convective and monsoon rainfall

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the performance of Fourier series in representing seasonal variations of the tropical rainfall process in Malaysia. Fourier series are incorporated into a spatial-temporal stochastic model in an attempt to make the model parsimonious and, at the same time, capture the annual variation of rainfall distribution. In view of Malaysia’s main rainfall regime, the model is individually fitted for two regions with distinctive rainfall profiles: one being an urban area receiving rainfall from convective activities whilst the other receives rainfall from monsoonal activities. Since both regions are susceptible to floods, the study focuses on the rainfall process at fine resolution. Fourier series equations are developed to represent the model’s parameters to describe their annual periodicity. The number of significant harmonics for each parameter is determined by inspecting the cumulative fraction of total variance explained by the significant harmonics. Results reveal that the number of significant harmonics assigned for the parameters is slightly higher in the region with monsoonal rains. The overall simulation results show that the proposed model is capable of generating tropical rainfall series from convective and monsoonal activities.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor K. Hamed